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Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 5-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +5.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0
(11/13/12):
#5 Portland (+2½) (A) - Win
v1 Plays
(A) 5-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Games for (11/14/12):
#6 Washington @ Dallas (M/L) (A) (8:35 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. System rules and backtest can be found in post #226.Comment -
Wallco correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't your system originally on the spread? I remember liking your system because it wasn't like the rest with laying a lot of juice on M/L (and it went undefeated I believe). I didn't follow last year due to the lockout so maybe I missed something.Comment -
No, it was always this way, -110 on dogs only. I am working on a way to make ALL games -110, may involve some filters and fewer plays. Every year it seems that the beginning of the season has more M/L games than we are comfortable with. As the season moves on, the majority of the plays are -110 games, with fewer M/L series mixed in. When I did backtest, there were several more losses playing the point spreads on favorites. But I am working on finding similarities in the series that we are playing the favorites and the different M/L and point spreads. Nothing has changed yet, but I'm hoping it will to make it less stressful on laying large odds.Comment -
7/5 Plays NOV 13
No Plays
7/5 Plays NOV 14
No Plays
Results:
Bet 1: 4-2
Bet 2: 1-1
Utah 11/2Comment -
Chi (A) ML,... Note buying 2pts and getting them at .5 may be cheaper than ML. That is of course if your playing traditional system.Comment -
wallco let me see if i have this right. your gonna lay anywhere from 375 to 420 on dallas tonight. if they were to lose and lets say they were a 200 fav next game(which i know they r ) not because they are on the road at ind) u would be trying to win 520(420 loss+100 profit) by laying 1040. and lets just say 4 kicks they lose again u would be betting to win 1560(420+1040+100) and lets say the third game is only 110 and laying 1712. REALLY TO WIN 1 UNIT if u lost that third game u will have lost 1712 +1040+420 =3272 am i right or am i missing something imagine if in the third game dallas was again fav by even 150 what the loss would be thats kinda scary with big favs dont u think has anything like this even remotely happened . i know this is taking worst case senario but the worst case happens sometimes thanksComment -
JM Traditional System
11/14/2012
V1
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 4-0
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 4-0
Current series pending: 0
1. Chicago Bulls A Bet -2 1/2 @ Phoenix Suns (Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Chicago Bulls A Bet + 1/2 @ Phoenix Suns
V2
Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 5-0
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 5-0
Current series pending: 0
V3
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 3-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 4-0
Current series pending: 0Comment -
Wallco do you know how many series dogs have compared to favorites on your system?Comment -
Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 6-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +6.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0
(11/14/12):
#6 Dallas (M/L) (A) - Win
v1 Plays
(A) 6-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
There are no system plays for (11/15/12)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.Last edited by Wallco99; 11-15-12, 07:35 AM.Comment -
That's the problem with chase systems if you have a bad streak you're busted. If your probability of winning is 0.5 (50%) then the chance of you losing 3 in a row is 1 out of 8 series. My strategy is to bet only 0.1% of my bankroll and then take it to Bet H. But even with that strategy you should expect to lose 8 in a row in 1 out of 256 series. The hope is that our percentage of winning any one bet is greater than 50%, and that significantly alters our expected losses.
You'll never be able to quit your day job with my method but you will have one helluva fun hobby and should be able to play for a really really long time.Comment -
7/5 Plays NOV 14
No Plays
7/5 Plays NOV 15
No Plays
Results:
Bet 1: 4-2
Bet 2: 1-1
Utah 11/2
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Wallco, although the Mavs won, as expected, have you considered applying a ".499 or worse record" filter when faced with an A Bet on the ML?For example, if a selected but poor team was playing an even poorer team at the A bet and was priced at -200 ML, there would be a risk that the series could get very expensive if the selected team lost the A Bet. A poor team filter could obviate that risk.
Kev
Anyway, good result last night
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I would only apply such a filter if backtest proves these series to be costly and non productive. I will keep a lot of notes during the test, something will come out of it.Wallco, although the Mavs won, as expected, have you considered applying a ".499 or worse record" filter when faced with an A Bet on the ML?For example, if a selected but poor team was playing an even poorer team at the A bet and was priced at -200 ML, there would be a risk that the series could get very expensive if the selected team lost the A Bet. A poor team filter could obviate that risk.
Kev
Anyway, good result last nightComment -
Also, if the team was that poor, chances are they may be dogs in their B, C, and D bets anyway, or lower line favorites. It's the really strong teams that go on losing streaks is what you need to watch.Wallco, although the Mavs won, as expected, have you considered applying a ".499 or worse record" filter when faced with an A Bet on the ML?For example, if a selected but poor team was playing an even poorer team at the A bet and was priced at -200 ML, there would be a risk that the series could get very expensive if the selected team lost the A Bet. A poor team filter could obviate that risk.
Kev
Anyway, good result last nightComment -
Quick update since there are no games today.
Stiffler
A) 8w – 2P – 3L
B) 2 – 0 (1 PENDING)
JM 1-3-5
A)9-7
B) 4-3
C) 2-1
Wallco:
6-0
Totals
A)23 – 10
B)6-3
C)2-1
*1 b bet pending
Depending on which strategy you are playing, if you are playing all these systems, you should be up around 32 units roughly. Bookies are getting crushed this season! Makes up for some of us who lost during MLB season.Comment -
When I use to play poker online some peoples avatars would be their profit graph. Easy to spot the winning players that way and avoid them
. Anyways I thought it would be koo if they had that on here as well. That way you can see who has a positive sports betting graph. Once the graphs are shown in their avatars you can choose which advice to follow via post.
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Awesome! I had always wished he would keep records of A, B, C, and D, but that thread is already a bloodbath and I'd feel terrible to ask. IMO this still isn't the most useful information in this format and that having it by each system would be more effective. I may gain the motivation to go back and tally the previous games at some point to gather this info, but it is not today.Comment -
LOL I know I will get bashed for this because it has not been fully back tested, but I am trying to think out side the box as usual and came up with a reverse theory. Instead of 1-3-5 what about 5-3-1. Since over half of the plays are won on the A level, I figure we should be betting to win majority of the money on A. I know A has by far the lower winning percentage, but this would pull in the most profits. Would have to adjust the numbers some, but this is what it looks like this year based on -110 odds (not buying points).
5-3-1
5.5 to win 5
9.35 To win 8.5
17.44 To win 15.85
Total risk 32.29
Profit this season: 26units. *this is after 1 series loss as well of 32 units. Had Utah covered their C wager we would be up 60 units!
Maybe we been thinking of this system wrong... shouldn't base it on the fact A-bets have a bad rep, but where most of the winning games come from. Maybe we are trying to avoid variance too much instead of maximizing profits. Also with a higher risk on the series, I would always advocate 200 units bankroll.
I am starting this method tomorrow.Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 11-15-12, 07:42 PM.Comment
BOL.