August 8, 2012 Olympic Basketball Writeup

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:11 AM

Spain:
3-3-0 SU
0-6-0 ATS
4-1-1 O/U
Coming from a "tanking" loss to Brazil to avoid USA 'til Gold medal game
They wanted to avoid USA 'til Gold medal so I'm expecting them to really play well on this one. But they're terrible in ATS.

France:
4-1-0 SU
2-3-0 ATS
3-2-0 O/U
Coming from a relatively close game against Nigeria. But they're not playing for anything last time.
Expect Tony Parker, and co to bring their A-game on this as this is a knockout game.

I am expecting another close game here. Fouling at the end plus these two are good in covering the "overs." So my picks are:
France+6, over 152

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 06:15 AM

yung fagit is more like it fading u hard here boy

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:19 AM

USA
9-0-0 SU (Exhibition games included)
5-4-0 ATS
7-2-0 O/U
They just dismantled Argentina last time in the 2nd half.
33 points is a lot to cover for these Americans

Australia:
3-2-0 SU
5-0-0 ATS
2-3-0 O/U
Australia coming from an upset against Russia with Patty Mill's game winner!
I believe they're underrated in ATS that's why they're great in terms of ATS

This is a difficult game to cap considering USA is -33 here. But I read an article regarding USA and their defense to be improved in knockout games. But, those defense will convert to easy layins! So I'm taking over here as USA is averaging 117.8 per game plus they're really hot right now. Australia with Patty Mills can backdoor here, in my opinion. Australia have good scorers out there and USA's defense really bad the past games. Hard pick but I'll choose:
Australia+33, over 190 (but this really depends on Australia's scoring)

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 06:22 AM

There is no backdoor in these games. USA can still clean the floor with their second squad. Patty Mills is still going up against Westbrook, who is 2X the better player. Mills isn't even an average NBA PG. Australia is ******* terrible. They need to score 80 points to keep this within 30. They won't.

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:23 AM

Argentina:
3-3-0 SU
2-4-0 ATS
4-2-0 O/U

Brazil:
4-2-0 SU
4-2-0 ATS
3-3-0 O/U

Argentina's experience will be a big factor here. Brazil a younger team but I think Argentina's really playing well right now. And they'll advance.

Pick:
Argentina-3.5, under 159.5

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by BstHcpr

yung fagit is more like it fading u hard here boy

Again, this is my opinion.

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:24 AM

This is my first time actually putting a writeup. Will post my FINAL PLAYS in my thread later! So stay tuned. So far, these are my picks. Might change later. It depends

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by younghandicapper

Again, this is my opinion.

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by BstHcpr

Thing is, USA can win by 40+ here! Depends really on the scoring on both teams, actually. But Australia will fight til the end so I'm seeing a backdoor here. I'm thinking picking the under also. but Over or no play from now on... So I don't know. Will post my final plays later.

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 06:57 AM

idk not real sold on either side. i think you gotta hope they can keep it close like lithuania and france did for a little bit. i don't see that happening. usa is fired up after getting disrespected by argentina. playing sick d, and melo and durant are bombing threes like mad. tough to slow down that offense especially in elimination games.

like your france pick. i think spain is way overrated. gasol is fukking old. plus frane has solid bigs. don't like argentina for some reason. they look old, and dont think they have the bigs to stop the depth of brazil's frontline. lithuania caught usa napping in a non crucial game but they played like shit against everyone else. they look old too. i think russia rolls here, and are probably second best in tourney right now.

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 07:18 AM

Might take Argentina at -3 here at -125 instead of -3.5 at -105. I think this will really be a close game. Yeah, they really look old. But I don't know! Played like shit against Tunisia last time. But I think they really can cover this 7.5 spreads considering Russia's playing close games all the time. I like France too, and actually might have an upset on this one. No real solid also on Australia+33. Might play the over though. Do Australia have some players that's actually a threat to USA?

shimeon40 · 08-08-12, 07:22 AM

bsthcpr...i got russia line at -6.5..i took it based on what u thought.

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 07:26 AM

Mills is the only NBAer they have. Ingles is OK, but there is a reason the Lakers didn't sign him. The Aussies will have a lot of trouble scoring the basketball. Still, I don't see how you risk 33 points with a scrub team like the Aussies. I mean, this team outscored Argentina by 25 in a single quarter. They beat Nigeria who has more NBAers than Australia by 83 points. I'd lean USA.

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

bsthcpr...i got russia line at -6.5..i took it based on what u thought.

Hopefully Russia will win by 7 so that we're all happy

younghandicapper · 08-08-12, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by BstHcpr

Mills is the only NBAer they have. Ingles is OK, but there is a reason the Lakers didn't sign him. The Aussies will have a lot of trouble scoring the basketball. Still, I don't see how you risk 33 points with a scrub team like the Aussies. I mean, this team outscored Argentina by 25 in a single quarter. They beat Nigeria who has more NBAers than Australia by 83 points. I'd lean USA.

Not yet my final play. 20 minutes 'til game time. I think, better to take the over at 190? But I don't know, Aussie might not score with USA's "improved" defense.

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by shimeon40

bsthcpr...i got russia line at -6.5..i took it based on what u thought.

Yeah, Russia should roll. Kirlenko has been getting rave reviews from NBA scouts, and he will shut down Kleiza (who is a scrub for the Raps anyway) Lithuania's got a few decent players, but I like that most of Russia's team played together for a while, so they have more familiarity. Def not liking that Lithuania lost to the USA by only 5, but still had a -4 PD. Russia was +41.

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 07:46 AM

190? What does Vegas think the score going to be?

112 to 78? Got to bank on Australia contributing a little offensively.

OhMyEli · 08-08-12, 08:01 AM

I dont see how Aus is worse than Lithuania. USA shot horrendous and still put up 99 and let in over 90. I think it will be something like the last game, Aus may stay in it early but there is no way they can keep up when the USA second squad could probably cover this spread if they actually tried. I imagine Aus will try and work the arc instead of go inside and open themselves up to the fast break. France actually tried this the first game, and had their shots been dropping, the game would have been much closer.

BstHcpr · 08-08-12, 08:43 AM

i keep reading how tuff and gritty australia is. that's usually an automatic guarantee that they are going to get the shit knocked out of them, but look super white doing it. they are getting raped

shimeon40 · 08-08-12, 10:04 AM

Tanks for russia besthcpr..close call but got there.