Spurs Live ML

[cousinnicky]

EDIT: I am talking about the 1st half.

Will they hit -150 or less at any point on the live moneyline? If so there's a good chance to make money by taking the Clips for less money at +180 then betting more on spurs -150 (or better) to guarantee a profit. I just can't decide if the Blakers will stay close for long enough for that to happen.

[Sport_Fish]

If Spurs even get to the -180 to 200 range its worth it.

[cousinnicky]

they are at -195 right now, but to guarantee a profit I need spurs -170 or so

[FindTheLock]

huge risk taking the ML on a team down 0-3 who knows they can't win this series. I personally think the clippers already have a tee time lined up, because they know the spurs are too good for them.

[cousinnicky]

huge risk taking the ML on a team down 0-3 who knows they can't win this series. I personally think the clippers already have a tee time lined up, because they know the spurs are too good for them.

In the OP i completely forgot to mention I was referring to 1st half.

I don't care whether or not LAC can be up at the half, just whether they will keep it close enough for the spurs 1h ML to drop enough to guarantee a profit.

[FindTheLock]

In the OP i completely forgot to mention I was referring to 1st half.

I don't care whether or not LAC can be up at the half, just whether they will keep it close enough for the spurs 1h ML to drop enough to guarantee a profit.

I understand what you're saying. You're looking for an in-game hedging opportunity. I personally think it is risky, but it is entirely possible.

[cousinnicky]

I like the in game hedges because it seems like the lines and odds are pretty volatile and reactionary. We will see what happens tonight.

[FindTheLock]

i do this often for the same exact reason, but this game might not be the ideal spot for it. The spurs over came the best the clippers had, and then the spurs proceeded to not only close the 24 point gap, they covered their original point spread. If I were you I would just watch the game and wait for the spurs to be down a touchdown or more. That's when you pounce on the spurs ML and cash it. The clippers have no answers for the spurs in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

[cousinnicky]

not a bad point but that is just as speculative in my opinion... all clippers have to do is be within a couple of baskets at the first or second timeout and the spurs line will drop.

[FindTheLock]

spurs currently -5 at the moment

[cousinnicky]

damn had a chance to do spurs 1h at -140 but i was too late.

update: that was probably my only chance. spurs up 5 now. make that 7. doh

[face]

got spurs ml at -230 when it was 9-4, lots of juice but i am up today

[Gonz312]

Didn't feel too goo about the 7.5, but grabbed them at 4.5 live. They want to put this away especially when it looks very likely okc closes tomorrow.

[FindTheLock]

got spurs ml at -230 when it was 9-4, lots of juice but i am up today

I almost pulled the trigger but wanted to wait for a little less vig. I will regret it I'm sure. Spurs probably win this by 50.

[cousinnicky]

I almost pulled the trigger but wanted to wait for a little less vig. I will regret it I'm sure. Spurs probably win this by 50.

-230 was good value.

come on clippers, just get a little closer before a t/o so i can get good enough odds on spurs 1h ml to guarantee profit.

[cousinnicky]

clips have cut it down to 3. with the ball. i need a t/o soon so i can take advantage of this.

[FindTheLock]

maybe the clippers will have an explosive 2nd quarter. I've made my mind, anything better than -250 for the spurs ML and I'm jumping on it. I don't like laying juice, but this is a great spot for a sweep.

[cousinnicky]

clips down 5 at the end of the first. come on spurs 1h ML be below -180

[cousinnicky]

hmmm no 1h live ml on 5dimes at the end of the first quarter...

[therushishere]

At what point are the Clippers worth it with the point spread? They're at +12 now...

[cousinnicky]

while it's dangerous to make a bet to try to cover losses, i just bet on clips +12. hoping to create a nice middle later.

[FindTheLock]

shit I wouldn't take the clippers getting +25 in this game. That doesn't mean I think the spurs are going to be a guarantee to cover 25, I just don't trust the clippers to have any heart while getting embarrassed for a 2nd time on their home floor.

[cousinnicky]

there have been too many comebacks from huge deficits in these playoffs for me to count someone out. i don't think clips can win but i think they can lose by less than 12.

spurs really gonna play this good + clips gonna play this bad the whole game?

[FindTheLock]

there have been too many comebacks from huge deficits in these playoffs for me to count someone out. i don't think clips can win but i think they can lose by less than 12.

spurs really gonna play this good + clips gonna play this bad the whole game?

judge each game on an individual basis. Think about the motivation of the clippers in the second half and the motivation of the spurs. The clippers blew a 20+ point lead on their home floor to go down 0-3 in the series. While the spurs have a chance to get rest by completing the sweep.

[cousinnicky]

lets go clips, come back and cash that 1h money line.

[cousinnicky]

judge each game on an individual basis. Think about the motivation of the clippers in the second half and the motivation of the spurs. The clippers blew a 20+ point lead on their home floor to go down 0-3 in the series. While the spurs have a chance to get rest by completing the sweep.

i don't go by that. by that basis, the clips wouldn't have cut it to 5, they would be down 15+

[FindTheLock]

i don't go by that. by that basis, the clips wouldn't have cut it to 5, they would be down 15+

2h man... the first half is not important. look at the spurs 2h point differential in this series compared to the clippers.

[cousinnicky]

2h man... the first half is not important. look at the spurs 2h point differential in this series compared to the clippers.

i really doubt anyone on the clippers says "i'm only going to try hard in the first half". i also doubt anyone on the spurs says "im only going to try hard in the second half"

[FindTheLock]

i really doubt anyone on the clippers says "i'm only going to try hard in the first half". i also doubt anyone on the spurs says "im only going to try hard in the second half"

SO the fact that the spurs have totally dominated the 2H in every game of this series is irrelevant to you? I consider it useful for my next wager.

[cousinnicky]

SO the fact that the spurs have totally dominated the 2H in every game of this series is irrelevant to you? I consider it useful for my next wager.

it's been three games. if that supports something that already makes sense to me, then I would be inclined to use it. But three games is not enough for me to try to find a reason to support the small sample. i think trying to get inside the players heads is a reach.

however, pop being a much better coach than del negro probably means better half time adjustments for the spurs than the clips. this would be something i believe.

[suicidekings]

Spurs ML +124 when they were down 5. Now back to -160, tied at 92

[cousinnicky]

Spurs ML +124 when they were down 5. Now back to -160, tied at 92

that call looks pretty good now that they are up 3. i took when they were below -200 because i was afraid it wouldn't get better.