Fade the Judge

Frisco · 03-30-12, 07:10 PM

10u is a lot to put on the Coupon Clippers. gl

Judgejoebrwn · 03-30-12, 07:22 PM

4U - New Jersey +4 - After beating a team like Indiana, the road warrior Nets head to Cali to play the Warriors at home. See what I did there? Anywho, I was surprised to see the Nets as the underdogs here. Jumped out at me like the Clippers play. Have to go with that.
2U - Heat/Raptors -191.5
2U - Pistons +11 - Could've gotten this at +12 if you were early enough, but 11 should be enough regardless. Bulls should no doubt when this game, but not in blowout fashion as they have no reason.
1U - Bulls/Pistons -182 - Pistons are unlikely to put up points on the road, especially against Chicago's D. However, Detroit's D should be able to hold them relatively low as well. I'd look for 170-pointer at best, maybe 86-80.
1U - Celtics/Wolves -191 - Not a big play, but honestly if the Wolves can only put up 88 against the Bobcats, no reason they should put up mid-90's against the Celtics. Celtics plays notoriously solid D, so look for another lower scoring affair to the tune of 184.
1U - Knicks +3 - Again, could've gotten this at +4, but in all honestly the M/L could be solid here. Knicks have been on a tare lately as it seems they're better off focusing their offense around 1 solid player rather than 3.

Here's to hoping for good results tonight!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-30-12, 07:27 PM

Added: 2U - Heat/Raptors 2H -93.5 - Just like last night, should see at least one low-scoring quarter and even if the total goes over 192, it shouldn't break 205.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-30-12, 07:38 PM

Added: 1U - Bucks/Cavs 2H -101.5

Judgejoebrwn · 03-30-12, 11:04 PM

Heat/Raptors -191 - Loss (2.2U)
Heat/Raptors -93.5 2H - Loss (2.2U)

So much for Miami's defense, allowing Toronto so many points. The big 3 all shot lights out, scoring a combined 86 points on almost 62% from the field.

Pistons +11 - Loss (2.2U) - If you got in at +12, you were fortunate with the push. Detroit cut the lead to 4 with 5 minutes to go, but managed to go 0 for 5 and scoreless the rest of the game. Like Deja Vu from the Nuggets the other night.

Knicks +3 - Loss (1.1U) - Tough loss. Looks like the biggest factors here were free throws and FG%. Davis and J.R. Smith combined for 4-18 from the field, in addition to Smith/Chandler/Shumpert combining for 4-13 from the line. That'll lose you games, ladies.

Bulls/Pistons -182 - Win (1U) - Even lower than I thought.
Celtics/Wolves -191 - Win (1U) - Almost dead on with this one.
Bucks/Cavs 2H -101.5 - Win (1U) - Cavs' horrible 4th certainly helped, but cleared by a mile.

Looking for strong 2H performances for my 2 big plays tonight to get back on track.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-30-12, 11:06 PM

Damn D. Will seems to be hit or miss. Dude can score 30+ points in the blink of an eye, then turn around and go 0-8. Don't really get it.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 12:06 AM

Awesome comeback from the Nets to cash.

Nets +4 - Win (4U)

Down only 0.7U with that play, but it looks like the Clippers are going to fail for me huge. Figures

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 12:08 AM

Clippers scored 11 points in 2 minutes, but allowed another 6 in that time frame. Just no freakin' luck at all. Tomorrow, I'm fading my own plays.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 12:16 AM

That one play, which should've been a shoe-in, was the difference between up 9.3U and down 11.7U. Of course I'd fall on the wrong side of that.

Down 23.1U.

Tomorrow we go against intelligence.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 11:46 AM

Today is going to be a little bit of an experiment. Only making a couple of plays, but going to observe all games to see how the tail/fade plays out.

First off, games I will not touch tonight:

Cavs/Knicks - So many questionable injuries, too many angles to make an accurate point prediction.
Jazz/Clippers - Again, too many factors to argue either side.

Smarter plays

Hornets +12.5 - Hornets continue to cover and prove they're underrated. Lakers continue to fail and prove they're overrated.
Hawks +6 - Atlanta is clearly the better team at the moment and will be looking to avoid a season sweep.
Pistons -7 - The Bobcats are one of the worst ATS in the league. Pistons should be able to get this done at home after a tough Chicago loss.
Bucks -2.5 - Bucks again are the better team currently. Memphis seems to be struggling after a brief glimpse of greatness, and especially on the road.
Spurs -8 - San Antonio is killing it as of late and with a now rested and healthy roster, no way should the Pacers keep up.
Nets +6.5 - I like the Kings ATS, but typically because they spoil things as an underdog. As a favorite, especially this heavy against a solid road team, it's unlikely.

3/31/12 Plays

4U - Hornets +12.5 - This is one play I just can't fade myself on. Far too many points in my opinion for the recent state of things. I certainly hope the Lakers can pull out a win, but there's need for them to make any kind of statement and I find it hard pressed they'd be able to if they wanted.

4U - Bobcats/Pistons -183 - Combine the defense of Detroit, the lack of offense of both teams, the lack of Maggette for Charlotte and the potential outtage of Gordon and Stuckey for Detroit, there's no feasable way the break this total. Look for an 85-76 Detroit victory.

1U - Hawks M/L (+210) - Small play on this for the value. Philly has been playing like shit lately and has lost the Atlantic lead to the Celtics because of it. Hawks have been smooth sailing regardless of injuries and multiple OT games this season. Hawks lost both previous meetings by double digits, but that's a lot of motivation to not get swept. Smith probably wants it most, as he played terribly in both prior meetings. Interesting info from NBA.com:

"Atlanta (31-22)The Hawks haven't been swept in a season series with Philadelphia since losing all three matchups in 2000-01.Atlanta's Josh Smith has a combined 19 points on 7-of-26 shooting in this season's two meetings but enters this one on a tear. He's averaged 25.1 points and 11.3 rebounds over the past seven games."

Philly may pull it out, but you gotta go with the better team in the moment, especially since "the line takes into account all factors".

BOL everyone!

-Judge

matt892 · 03-31-12, 12:40 PM

Hopefully, today is a better day. I am on 3 of these plays. LET'S GET IT!!

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 11:30 PM

Cash the Hornets. Wasn't even close. +4

Bobcats/Pistons evidently decided to trade buckets the entire game since they're both terrible teams and have nothing to look forward too. -4.4

Hawks blew a 4-point lead to a MONSTER 33-point 4Q from Philly. Crazy. -1.1

Down another 1.5U tonight. Had I bet all the "smart" plays, I would've gone 4-2 tonight, or +3.6U at 2U per game. Figures.

Another day tomorrow.

Down 24.6U

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 10:01 AM

4/1/12

4U - Hornets +10 - Despite their injuries the Hornets have been solid ATS lately. Phoenix should be able to snag another win here, but double digits is unlikely.

2U - Golden State +10.5 - No reason to trust the Lakers at this point. They keep squeezing out wins, but failing against the spread. If the Hornets can keep it close, the Warriors should keep it close.

2U - Heat/Celtics U186 - Provided these two teams play any kind of defense, this game should go under. Boston has a solid shot of covering in my opinion, so I see this game going something like 92-89 Boston.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 03:41 PM

Added: 2U - Minnesota +2 - Here's to Kevin Love pulling out a huge game against a horrible defense.

Also: 2U - Houston -4 - Liking their chances at home. Seem to be more reliable at home than Indiana on the road.

markeee · 04-01-12, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by Judgejoebrwn

4/1/12

4U - Hornets +10 - Despite their injuries the Hornets have been solid ATS lately. Phoenix should be able to snag another win here, but double digits is unlikely.

2U - Golden State +10.5 - No reason to trust the Lakers at this point. They keep squeezing out wins, but failing against the spread. If the Hornets can keep it close, the Warriors should keep it close.

2U - Heat/Celtics U186 - Provided these two teams play any kind of defense, this game should go under. Boston has a solid shot of covering in my opinion, so I see this game going something like 92-89 Boston.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Good luck with the rest..Heat cashed eh

Im on Golden State but only got +10 and also Hornets +10 with you

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by markeee

Good luck with the rest..Heat cashed eh

Im on Golden State but only got +10 and also Hornets +10 with you

Thanks. Yup, cash the under. Almost dead on with the Celtics total and the Heat totally underperformed 2H. Houston blew a huge 4Q lead and are about to lose. Here's hoping for OT.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 08:24 PM

We got OT! At least a shot at a Houston cover.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 10:36 PM

Houston let the Pacers reel them in and finish in OT, and the Hornets shot TERRIBLE from the field and were on the shitty end of officiating throughout the game. Good news is the Warriors are putting on a show in the 4th against the Lakers. Might be able to "break even" tonight.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 11:18 PM

And the Warriors put in a massive 4th to pull out the cover! Still down 5U on the night, though, as both late plays blew. This is getting aggravating. Here's to hoping for a better tomorrow.

-Judge

brainfreeze0 · 04-02-12, 12:50 AM

You should try doing an SBR blog instead of this thread bro, that way you can put all the sports you cap in it and the people who want to tail you can subscribe to it.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 07:54 AM

Might do that, but I'm not really clear on how that works. I logged into mysbrforum and saw a couple of my posted threads as blog entries. So instead of adding to the forum thread, just post my NBA and NHL plays in a blog entry there?

Thanks.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:38 AM

Until then, continuing on.

Down 29.4U

4/2/12

5U - Sacramento -3.5 - Sacramento isn't the greatest ATS as a home favorite, but I have to like their chances here. Minnesota has been pretty horrible on the road, especially as of late with their injured crew. The Wolves are 2-7 (wins against Bobcats and Warriors) in their last 9 road games and all 7 losses have come by more than 3.5, including their loss to the Kings by 16 points. The Kings have lost their last 3 home games, but the 3 prior were big wins against Memphis, Minnesota, and Boston by an average of 17 points. The Wolves cannot win on the road with Love doing all the work and they proved that last night against Portland. Look for a high-scoring, Sac-covering affair.

5U - Dallas -4.5 - The Mavs are 6-1 in their March home games, the loss coming to a fired-up Lakers squad and all 6 wins by way of 5+ points, even against teams like the Spurs, Knicks, and Jazz. The Clippers have been playing well as of late, just when it looked like Del Negro was about to get the boot. They won all 5 games of their home stead, but are now headed on the road. Rest won't be a factor for either team, so I'm looking for the Mavs to welcome LA to Texas properly with at least a 6-8 point victory. I'm calling it 95-87.

2U - Kings/Wolves O215.5 - This line is certainly steep, but there's no better candidate to surpass it. In the last 10 games of the regular season, Sacramento holds the number 1 spot in points scored AND points allowed. They're notorious for not playing defense, but putting up huge points in return. Minnesota showed last night that their defense is low, and I only see that getting worse in a b2b. They've also shown they can put up big numbers, scoring 95+ in 13 of their last 18 games. And that number should only get better against the Kings (especially after getting beat by them earlier this month). Look for both teams to play little defense and light up the scoreboard tonight. Then line has already moved to 216.5, though I still think they cover that. 121-114 Sacramento.

2U - Memphis +8 - I agree with some of the others that this is a huge letdown spot for OKC. They've won 6 in a row, all by more than 8 points. However, they've also dropped 3 home games in March to the Spurs, Cavs, and Rockets. In addition, these teams have met 3 times this season and although OKC won them all, none were by 8+. I think OKC could lose this game as the motivation is low - they've already clinched the playoffs and have the 2nd best record in the league. Motivation should be big for Memphis to improve their record to push for a solid playoff spot AND to avoid a season sweep. I'm not comfortable enough to take the M/L on Memphis, but it wouldn't surprise me if they won. It would surprise me if they lost by double digits, though...

BOL all!

-Judge

csknight3 · 04-02-12, 10:33 AM

Dang it. I actually like the Memphis and Dallas play a lot haha. Good Luck to you man. Im on those as well. Maybe this will be the start of turning your luck around.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by csknight3

Dang it. I actually like the Memphis and Dallas play a lot haha. Good Luck to you man. Im on those as well. Maybe this will be the start of turning your luck around.

LOL. Hopefully I don't ruin it for you. BOL.

brainfreeze0 · 04-02-12, 01:53 PM

Just click on your name to the left and click on your blog in the drop down menu. When you get there:

Plus SBR gives you points as long as you write at least 500 words for each blog entry.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 01:55 PM

Added: 5U - Bucks -7 - Liking this position without Nene. A rested and driven Bucks team against one of the bottom feeders without the one player that makes them competitive...

Also: 2U - Bucks -7 + Bulls M/L Parlay +141 - Giving the Bulls M/L more value in a parlay, but don't really want to overdo it with a bunch of units when I still have to rely on the Bucks to get it done. If I had a larger backroll, I'd definitely risk more on this with the value.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by brainfreeze0

Just click on your name to the left and click on your blog in the drop down menu. When you get there:

[ATTACH]40654[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]40656[/ATTACH]

Plus SBR gives you points as long as you write at least 500 words for each blog entry.

Thanks for the tips. I'll try to get it started tomorrow.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:10 PM

Think it's safe to say we can cash the Bucks 5U! Also Bulls up 11 at the Half...don't see Houston rallying back from that for a win at all, but I won't jinx it.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:40 PM

Dallas is performing HORRIBLY, shooting only 35% from the field with 16% from the arc. Cover isn't looking good, however:

Added: 2U - Dallas -6.5 2H - Dirk is still shooting well and the Clippers are due for a poor quarter. I think Dallas still comes back to make this close, maybe even sneak a win. Can't see them losing by double digits though.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 09:11 PM

And the Bulls are blowing it...

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 10:12 PM

Mental note: Teams that play like absolute dogshit in the first half will probably play like absolute dogshit in the second half. Ain't making that mistake again.

7 solid units ruined by the Mavs, and the Bulls couldn't close out at home against the Rockets. On the bright side, 123 points in the first half for Sac/Minny. Hopefully that game makes this a positive night.

Samfourteen · 04-02-12, 11:25 PM

Kings come through for ya judge. Good to see

Judgejoebrwn · 04-03-12, 06:35 AM

Yes sir. Kings coming through in a big way and making this a positive night, despite the Dallas rape with no reacharound.

Sac -3.5 - Win (5U)
Bucks -7 - Win (5U)
Sac/Minny +215.5 - Win (2U)
Memphis +8 - Win (2U)
Dallas -4.5 - Loss (5.5U)
Dallas -6.5 2H - Loss (2.2U)
Bucks/Bulls Parlay - Loss (2U)

Up 4.3U on the night. Much needed to with this past 6 or so days.

Still down 25.1 overall. Looking to cut down on this some more tonight.

-Judge

imbaz · 04-03-12, 07:01 AM

good call on sac!

what are your plays today?