NBA Tuesday.. 2-1 yesterday.. 97-55 YTD (63.8%) +76.3 units
All posted lines represent the number I got down on my personal bets and record trackers. My plays are beginning to move lines, so they may be different at the time I post my plays publicly.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
You should know by now that I rate Cavs better on the road than at home, so we are picking up an edge for the universal home court adjustment. Philly plays about the same weather they are at home or on the road.
Andre Iguodala is likely to miss tonight’s game. He is the Sixers co-MVP, with a Roland rating of +5.9. Everybody saw how bad the Sixers can be without Iguodala, when they got trampled by the Duncan-less, Splitter-less Spurs.
The Cavs are an extremely talented young team and the Sessions trade opened-up more minutes for rookie phenom, Kyrie Irving. I also would not sleep on Luke Walton helping this team in a limited role, he had a very good Roland rating of +3.9 with the Lakers this year. Walton is a more capable player than many thing, but that is not really a factor in this game.
Brothers wasn’t able to skew the Bucks game enough to get a road cover last night. I consider him more likely to get a road cover tonight, since he didn’t last night.
Referee assignments:
Portland Trail Blazers +5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Thunder are another public darling, like the Heat. They are sitting at a 54% cover rate on the year, odds makers do not want any public favorite to be above 52.4% and, ideally, they want them below 50%. Thunder lines are on auto-inflate.
I’ve fielded questions about Felton’s absence. Felton is an overrated player who has a (-0.3) Roland rating. He will be replaced by Crawford in the starting line-up (+0.7 Roland rating) and everything will be fine, or better than fine.
The Rose Garden is a tough place to play and, despite recent performances, the Blazers are capable of beating any team in this league. 5 points is way too much chalk for OKC to lay in Portland.
Referee assignments:
HUGE home referee advantage for the Blazers.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
You should know by now that I rate Cavs better on the road than at home, so we are picking up an edge for the universal home court adjustment. Philly plays about the same weather they are at home or on the road.
Andre Iguodala is likely to miss tonight’s game. He is the Sixers co-MVP, with a Roland rating of +5.9. Everybody saw how bad the Sixers can be without Iguodala, when they got trampled by the Duncan-less, Splitter-less Spurs.
The Cavs are an extremely talented young team and the Sessions trade opened-up more minutes for rookie phenom, Kyrie Irving. I also would not sleep on Luke Walton helping this team in a limited role, he had a very good Roland rating of +3.9 with the Lakers this year. Walton is a more capable player than many thing, but that is not really a factor in this game.
Brothers wasn’t able to skew the Bucks game enough to get a road cover last night. I consider him more likely to get a road cover tonight, since he didn’t last night.
Referee assignments:
- Tony Brothers: 16-24 home team ATS record
- Rodney Mott: 25-13 home team ATS record
- James Williams: 16-18 home team ATS record
Portland Trail Blazers +5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Thunder are another public darling, like the Heat. They are sitting at a 54% cover rate on the year, odds makers do not want any public favorite to be above 52.4% and, ideally, they want them below 50%. Thunder lines are on auto-inflate.
I’ve fielded questions about Felton’s absence. Felton is an overrated player who has a (-0.3) Roland rating. He will be replaced by Crawford in the starting line-up (+0.7 Roland rating) and everything will be fine, or better than fine.
The Rose Garden is a tough place to play and, despite recent performances, the Blazers are capable of beating any team in this league. 5 points is way too much chalk for OKC to lay in Portland.
Referee assignments:
- Tom Washington: 23-13 home team ATS record
- Pat Fraher: 23-14-1 home team ATS record
- Mark Lindsay: 22-15 home team ATS record
HUGE home referee advantage for the Blazers.
