Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Philadelphia 76ers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Remember the Bulls play and how it was partly based on how often they cover the spread? Well San Antonio is the only team that covers more spreads than the Bulls. Odds makers are auto-inflating every Spurs line, to thwart the squares that bet on the Spurs “just because they always cover.” Again, only 8 teams in the past 8 years have covered 60% or more spreads in a year, 3.33% of teams in the period of time (8/240=.033) the Spurs are covering exactly 60% right now. It is more likely than not, odds makers will knock that figure as close as they can to 50% over the remainder of the season.
The Spurs will be without 2 key pieces (Splitter, Duncan) and a good role player (Neal). Duncan and Splitter are the Spur’s #2 and 3 most effective players, respectively. It also helps that San Antonio will give more playing time to the cancerous Stephen Jackson, who had a terrible -4.1 Roland rating with the Bucks this season. Jackson hasn’t had a positive Roland rating since the '09-'10 season, and he’s never had a rating of more than +2, he is quite overrated.
Referee assignments:
The Sixers would have a huge referee advantage, but of course the NBA seems to always pair Boland with Crawford or Brothers, to even things out. Crawford is head, so he has more pull. He likes to give the home crowd something to boo about.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Philadelphia 76ers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Remember the Bulls play and how it was partly based on how often they cover the spread? Well San Antonio is the only team that covers more spreads than the Bulls. Odds makers are auto-inflating every Spurs line, to thwart the squares that bet on the Spurs “just because they always cover.” Again, only 8 teams in the past 8 years have covered 60% or more spreads in a year, 3.33% of teams in the period of time (8/240=.033) the Spurs are covering exactly 60% right now. It is more likely than not, odds makers will knock that figure as close as they can to 50% over the remainder of the season.
The Spurs will be without 2 key pieces (Splitter, Duncan) and a good role player (Neal). Duncan and Splitter are the Spur’s #2 and 3 most effective players, respectively. It also helps that San Antonio will give more playing time to the cancerous Stephen Jackson, who had a terrible -4.1 Roland rating with the Bucks this season. Jackson hasn’t had a positive Roland rating since the '09-'10 season, and he’s never had a rating of more than +2, he is quite overrated.
Referee assignments:
- Joe Crawford: 10-24 home team ATS record
- Matt Boland: 23-14 home team ATS record
- Josh Tiven: 19-17 home team ATS record
The Sixers would have a huge referee advantage, but of course the NBA seems to always pair Boland with Crawford or Brothers, to even things out. Crawford is head, so he has more pull. He likes to give the home crowd something to boo about.
