Tuesday, April 5: 3 Plays

[suicidekings]

Clippers @ Grizzlies -9 (-105) x8

This is a huge week for the Grizzlies. They have 5 games to go with good spacing between them. In their last meeting the Grizz pounded the Clippers by 23 and I expect another DD win tomorrow.

Kings @ Rockets -9 (-105) x4

This is the first game of a tough 4 games in 6 days road trip for the Kings (@HOU, @SAS, @MEM, @GSW) and despite their better play recently, I don't expect them to have another successful roadtrip. Houston plays New Orleans the next night, and with wins in both games can pull to within 1.5 games of the Hornets for the final spot in the west. Houston has less games in hand, but a slightly easier schedule to work with than New Orleans. The Rockets know how critical these next two games are to their playoff hopes and I expect them to start off with a DD win over the Kings. The Rockets are 3-0 against the Kings so far this year winning by margins of 22, 9, and 13.

Thunder @ Nuggets -2.5 (-130) x8

First round playoff preview game. Unfortunately for the Thunder this is their last game of a 4 game roadtrip. They've had two days off but I still do not expect them to be able to beat the Nuggets in Denver. Anderson and Afflalo are both day to day with regard to their injuries but I expect Afflalo to play in this game and most likely Anderson as well. With a second game vs the Thunder in OKC 3 days later, I expect Denver to play a very strong game tomorrow.
_____________________________

3 plays totalling 23u to win 20u

[Vulcan300]

had same leans on grizzlies and nuggets but made the play on nuggets already i bought it down to -3 tho nice!
if kaman is out i like the grizzlies heavier than i had intially planned to lay down. kings @ rockets bothered me a bit, rockets need the win but i dunno about them crushing kings

nice plays.

[forzuto13]

Love the Memphis play! Got it too.

[Pauulzcappin]

I like the Grizzlies and also the Nuggets. Probably my plays for tomorrow.

[jayson311]

Kings, I love the nugs as a team and have been on them this entire run. How does this spread compare to other home spreads for the nugs? Seems low to me??

[kobstopa]

Clippers @ Grizzlies -9 (-105) x8

This is a huge week for the Grizzlies. They have 5 games to go with good spacing between them. In their last meeting the Grizz pounded the Clippers by 23 and I expect another DD win tomorrow.

Kings @ Rockets -9 (-105) x4

This is the first game of a tough 4 games in 6 days road trip for the Kings (@HOU, @SAS, @MEM, @GSW) and despite their better play recently, I don't expect them to have another successful roadtrip. Houston plays New Orleans the next night, and with wins in both games can pull to within 1.5 games of the Hornets for the final spot in the west. Houston has less games in hand, but a slightly easier schedule to work with than New Orleans. The Rockets know how critical these next two games are to their playoff hopes and I expect them to start off with a DD win over the Kings. The Rockets are 3-0 against the Kings so far this year winning by margins of 22, 9, and 13.

Thunder @ Nuggets -2.5 (-130) x8

First round playoff preview game. Unfortunately for the Thunder this is their last game of a 4 game roadtrip. They've had two days off but I still do not expect them to be able to beat the Nuggets in Denver. Anderson and Afflalo are both day to day with regard to their injuries but I expect Afflalo to play in this game and most likely Anderson as well. With a second game vs the Thunder in OKC 3 days later, I expect Denver to play a very strong game tomorrow.
_____________________________

3 plays totalling 23u to win 20u

looks good,
i rather afflalo not return yet till the actual playoff start & keep it as element of surprise, the current line up play so well as it is, don't want to see them try to adjust for return players in such a short time for one important game. Kmart's solid with D when he put more minutes down the stretch, he'll dominate the glass for just 1 or 2 key plays.

gl guys - a sweep is in the making here .. go get em..

[demens]

Clippers @ Grizzlies -9 (-105) x8

Kings @ Rockets -9 (-105) x4

Thunder @ Nuggets -2.5 (-130) x8

Whoa, dropping some bombs.

I liked both Mem and Hous before even doing any research on the games. Will play Grizz for sure. Too much of a bitch to play Rockets though. Its not even that the Kings are playing great, they had a great trip but their record vs top teams in this recent stretch of good play is as poor as its been. I just dont like the line and the spot for Houston facing NO the next day. If the line went o 8 i'd take it.

Wondering why you bough down to 2.5 with the Nuggs. I see the game as 50/50 and was actually thinking about grabbing OKC ML, has a lot of value imo.

Den is a cute Cinderella story but like we saw with Butler today, sooner or later its time to go back home to that evil step mom. Denver is playing over their heads, great team basketball but not to use the due word i just dont think they can keep beating all these teams that are better then them. OKC has lost 2 straight and i really think its important for them not to continue the streak with the play-offs so close. Afflalo missing or not being healthy is key imo, with as much depth as they have at that position he is their best defender. Yeah Chandler is ok, and so is Smith if he tries but they need him.

We'll see, should be a good game. I probably wont play it at all, maybe just for points so GL.

[Anthonyg7]

Loving all three plays

[QUEST001]

Rockets my favorite play....Like grizz...but rolling with Okc although your angle makes sence. GL
Knicks should be a good play as well tomorrow....

[stefan084]

like memphis and the nuggets

[demens]

Rockets my favorite play....Like grizz...but rolling with Okc although your angle makes sence. GL
Knicks should be a good play as well tomorrow....

Sort of like the Raps there. Depending on the injury status and the line. I have it capped pretty high. Raps are going with youth at the end of the year with Bayless getting major minutes, Derozen and Ed Davis. These guys are playing well. Knicks are known not to get up for the weaker teams, if the Raps +12 is available i'd take.

[MrXYZ]

Like your Grizz & Rockets picks but I think Thunder will win this one. BOL

[riskyProps]

That has a high probably of hitting.

[Love The Action]

Like your Grizz call SK! I'm on it too. Also LOVE the Denver/OKC under. Hope we cash all of our plays. Good luck!

[suicidekings]

Whoa, dropping some bombs. I liked both Mem and Hous before even doing any research on the games. Will play Grizz for sure. Too much of a bitch to play Rockets though. Its not even that the Kings are playing great, they had a great trip but their record vs top teams in this recent stretch of good play is as poor as its been. I just dont like the line and the spot for Houston facing NO the next day. If the line went o 8 i'd take it. Wondering why you bough down to 2.5 with the Nuggs. I see the game as 50/50 and was actually thinking about grabbing OKC ML, has a lot of value imo. Den is a cute Cinderella story but like we saw with Butler today, sooner or later its time to go back home to that evil step mom. Denver is playing over their heads, great team basketball but not to use the due word i just dont think they can keep beating all these teams that are better then them. OKC has lost 2 straight and i really think its important for them not to continue the streak with the play-offs so close. Afflalo missing or not being healthy is key imo, with as much depth as they have at that position he is their best defender. Yeah Chandler is ok, and so is Smith if he tries but they need him. We'll see, should be a good game. I probably wont play it at all, maybe just for points so GL.

The raw spread came out as DEN -4 for me. However when the line at Pinny dropped from DEN -4 (-102) directly to DEN -3.5 (-109) this afternoon, I took the opportunity to buy it down at what would most likely be the best price available on this line at any point. Moving the line to match the market while juicing in the other direction says Pinny isn't scared of OKC money...

[dude_bg]

Like your Grizz call SK! I'm on it too. Also LOVE the Denver/OKC under. Hope we cash all of our plays. Good luck!

i can get under 207, i am seriously thinking to make a play on it. Teams have something to play for, so i think defense will be bit better than average.

[GTS925]

Anyone likes the Nets? I believe Love and Milicic is out.

[demens]

The raw spread came out as DEN -4 for me. However when the line at Pinny dropped from DEN -4 (-102) directly to DEN -3.5 (-109) this afternoon, I took the opportunity to buy it down at what would most likely be the best price available on this line at any point. Moving the line to match the market while juicing in the other direction says Pinny isn't scared of OKC money...

It sure seems to be going up in Denvers favor.

But isn't it always like that? When Pinny moves the line DOWN they always juice it. It start with lowering the juice on -4 to close to even, and then if they must drop it to -3.5 the juice always goes up.

[suicidekings]

It sure seems to be going up in Denvers favor.

But isn't it always like that? When Pinny moves the line DOWN they always juice it. It start with lowering the juice on -4 to close to even, and then if they must drop it to -3.5 the juice always goes up.

With the line up to -5.5 in places, I'm loving my -2.5.

And no. Normal juicing on a line move at Pinny might be:

-4 (-105) / +4 (-105)
-4 (+100) / +4 (-110)
-4 (+102) / +4 (-113)
-3.5 (-105) / +3.5 (-105)

When a line moves due to normal movement it moves off the starting -105, eventually hits the stopper (-111/+101, -113/+102, wtv) and then after moving to the new line typically resets at (-105). The line moves in the OKC/DEN game are abnormal. It's like a baserunner taking an extra step or two off first, but leaning back towards the bag with no intention of running.

[demens]

Yeah, that makes sense that it would reset at 105. Not sure why i though it starts off juiced, but i have seen a lot of example when that does happen as well.

[korbal29]

I like the thunder pick but not so sure for sacramento DD win

[nnhenry]

playing houston, memphis & orlando ml parlay.

[No coincidences]

Does this worry you at all about HOU SK?

SAC are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
Road team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

[suicidekings]

Does this worry you at all about HOU SK?

SAC are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
Road team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Rockets covered in their last meeting in Houston when the spread was -9.5 when they won by 13 points (12/14/10). They lost the one before that (3/3/10) straight up in a really ugly game where both teams were shooting horribly, and won by 7 but didn't cover the -11 spread in the one before that (11/21/09) while playing their 5th game in 7 days and their first game at home after a road trip. The two games before that were wins for the Rockets of 11 and 12 points but the spread was -13 for both games.

The first stat is very misleading when taken out of context. The second one is a product of Houston routinely being saddled with big double digit spreads at home and being small faves in Sacramento. Really, I don't care at all about any games that happened before last season. I don't believe that they offer any insight into today's game.

[Banks84]

marc lawrence's play of the day is sacramento plus the points i wouldn't bet against him...take the over its a way safer bet.

[suicidekings]

marc lawrence's play of the day is sacramento plus the points i wouldn't bet against him...take the over its a way safer bet.

Who's Mark Lawrence?

[Sambooka]

Who's Mark Lawrence?

He is a capper on 'covers.com'

[jubuck757]

Clippers @ Grizzlies -9 (-105) x8

This is a huge week for the Grizzlies. They have 5 games to go with good spacing between them. In their last meeting the Grizz pounded the Clippers by 23 and I expect another DD win tomorrow.

Kings @ Rockets -9 (-105) x4

This is the first game of a tough 4 games in 6 days road trip for the Kings (@HOU, @SAS, @MEM, @GSW) and despite their better play recently, I don't expect them to have another successful roadtrip. Houston plays New Orleans the next night, and with wins in both games can pull to within 1.5 games of the Hornets for the final spot in the west. Houston has less games in hand, but a slightly easier schedule to work with than New Orleans. The Rockets know how critical these next two games are to their playoff hopes and I expect them to start off with a DD win over the Kings. The Rockets are 3-0 against the Kings so far this year winning by margins of 22, 9, and 13.

Thunder @ Nuggets -2.5 (-130) x8

First round playoff preview game. Unfortunately for the Thunder this is their last game of a 4 game roadtrip. They've had two days off but I still do not expect them to be able to beat the Nuggets in Denver. Anderson and Afflalo are both day to day with regard to their injuries but I expect Afflalo to play in this game and most likely Anderson as well. With a second game vs the Thunder in OKC 3 days later, I expect Denver to play a very strong game tomorrow.
_____________________________

3 plays totalling 23u to win 20u

We is on the complete opposite sides of the track today. Interesting

[No coincidences]

Any MLB tonight SK?

[suicidekings]

We is on the complete opposite sides of the track today. Interesting

Is we?

[suicidekings]

Any MLB tonight SK?

I'm just sticking to the NBA tonight. I haven't had time to look at MLB at all.

NB: Marlins (-156) x1, Marlins -1 (-108) x1, Mets (+173) x1

[nbarlotta3]

Nuggets should cover easily theyre playing great.

[Banks84]

nuggets were just on the road and beat lakers in L.A. could be bit of a letdown tonight okc is solid team not saying they'll lose but they wont cover easy either...expect a close game.