Dallas -1 at Portland?

cockblocker · 03-15-11, 12:14 AM

Dallas won the previous 2 meetings in Dallas by 3 and 5. Portland dropped it last 2 on the road and has been off the past 2 nights waiting to play.

Like the Blazers here.

xxdjstriderxx · 03-15-11, 12:29 AM

dallas is my only play tomorrow.

after losing to lakers at home in a close game they go on the road and come out strong to prove that they are a contender by beating a tough portland team at home

ohnevah · 03-15-11, 12:29 AM

revenge game and first game back at home...big advantage on portland?

twelvejewelz · 03-15-11, 12:32 AM

I have a site with service plays i fade and they are ALWAYS wrong, I think they have gotten 1 right in the past 40 or so. Tomorrow they say the play is portland so im taking dallas.

ohnevah · 03-15-11, 12:38 AM

^LOL

cockblocker · 03-15-11, 12:41 AM

This game may be better to wait till half time and have a chance at a better line.

twelvejewelz · 03-15-11, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by ohnevah

^LOL

you'd be surprised i have won close to 4k just doing this small on a separate book this season LOL .Waiting for the hawks and bulls lines to come out though

DR225 · 03-15-11, 12:44 AM

yeah, a halftime bet is a good idea. At this point in the season, it's nice to see the energy levels for both teams.

christhegun · 03-15-11, 12:48 AM

Take the home dog and be happy about it.

NBA_Brosuf · 03-15-11, 12:49 AM

I'm already on Dallas. With -1, I don't see why a #2 seed is only valued at -1 against a #7 seed.

Portland did beat miami and orlando on the road as of late but what about dallas? Dallas is 1-1 with Orlando and 1-0 with miami.

Dallas is just as great and they haven't lose 2 in a row to mediocre team in a long while.

xxdjstriderxx · 03-15-11, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf

I'm already on Dallas. With -1, I don't see why a #2 seed is only valued at -1 against a #7 seed.

Portland did beat miami and orlando on the road as of late but what about dallas? Dallas is 1-1 with Orlando and 1-0 with miami.

Dallas is just as great and they haven't lose 2 in a row to mediocre team in a long while.

jays12 · 03-15-11, 01:07 AM

dallas -1 is worth some change but not too much, batum (good defender, not bad scorer) is questionable tomorrow for what its worth

twelvejewelz · 03-15-11, 01:09 AM

camby and batum both are questionable. Im taking dallas, good luck on your bet though either way.

kobstopa · 03-15-11, 01:18 AM

Dal should be a good play here, they have a good core of veteran to play the mental game, to handle the Rose Garden's crowd. They're deep in 1 guard, the bench and in the middle.

the number
Dallas (47-19) vs .500 or above 28-14 vs .500 or below 19-5
Portland (37-29) vs .500 or above 17-23 vs .500 or below20-6

Portland vs SW 5-7
Dallas vs NW 10-3

jays12 · 03-15-11, 01:51 AM

just did some research, dallas's offence does bode too well against half court teams & good defensive teams, especially on their floor. the guards (kidd and terry) essentially become jumpshooters, destroying team chemistry. not good at all, look at dallas results agianst teams like milwaukee, portland, new orleans, chicago on the road, most are low scoring. im going under 189.5 for this game

jays12 · 03-15-11, 01:52 AM

*does not bode too well

twelvejewelz · 03-15-11, 01:56 AM

I may take dallas, then the under, then parlay the 2. I like them tomorrow but still need to look a little more into it.

face · 03-15-11, 03:34 AM

do you think the line will move? what is the site you fade?

Blueline Master · 03-15-11, 03:45 AM

Dallas is a good play all the way!!

dRavidC · 03-15-11, 03:56 AM

according to accuscore, dallas & the over is the play here!

necro · 03-15-11, 06:41 AM

portland at home are tough nut to crack

adam3248 · 03-15-11, 07:32 AM

Originally posted by jays12

just did some research, dallas's offence does bode too well against half court teams & good defensive teams, especially on their floor. the guards (kidd and terry) essentially become jumpshooters, destroying team chemistry. not good at all, look at dallas results agianst teams like milwaukee, portland, new orleans, chicago on the road, most are low scoring. im going under 189.5 for this game

I also like the Under here.. If Batum is cleared to play he will aso bolster the Portland 'D'. When you look at opponents Dallas have faced that are similar to Portland in terms of their defense and preference to dictate a slower tempo you have to favour the 'under' 189.5 tonight. I also think that Dallas, being involved in some high scoring games lately has influenced the line and books have slightly over-adjusted tonight's posted total. (Dallas have scored 100+ points in 19 of their last 22 games) But when you look at some of the teams they have faced (uptempo teams) such as the Knicks, Wolves, Pacers, Suns, Kings, Rockets, Nuggs.. you can understand why they have topped 100 points on so many occasions recently.

If you look at some of the games where Dallas have failed to score 100+ points..
96-91 vs Lakers (187 total)
92-93 vs Hornets (185 total)
99-96 vs Cleveland (195 total)
87-86 vs Nets (173 total)
77-82 vs Bulls (159 total)
84-81 vs Blazers (165 total)
87-99 vs Bucks (186 total)

Average total across these games = 178.5

I understand this is a small sample size. But generally when Dallas faces a team that plays with similar defensive intensity to Portland's (I believe the Blazers will play BIG defense tonight on their home court after 2 consecutive losses, look to dictate the pace of the game, (relatively slower) and hold the Mavs to under 100 points) the total fails to supass 190.

Portland have also held 6 of their last 8 opponents to under 100 points. (average of 88 points allowed in those 6 games)

Portland have also averaged just 86 points allowed in their last 10 games including opposition such as Miami, Orlando, Houston, Denver, Lakers..

The Blazers have averaged 94ppg on offense their last 10 games overall.

The previous matchup between these two also resulted in a 84-81 dallas win (165 total points)

I see value with the 'UNDER' 189.5 here and I believe the score will be roughly 95-90 to Dallas..

Vulcan300 · 03-15-11, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by adam3248

I also like the Under here.. If Batum is cleared to play he will aso bolster the Portland 'D'. When you look at opponents Dallas have faced that are similar to Portland in terms of their defense and preference to dictate a slower tempo you have to favour the 'under' 189.5 tonight. I also think that Dallas, being involved in some high scoring games lately has influenced the line and books have slightly over-adjusted tonight's posted total. (Dallas have scored 100+ points in 19 of their last 22 games) But when you look at some of the teams they have faced (uptempo teams) such as the Knicks, Wolves, Pacers, Suns, Kings, Rockets, Nuggs.. you can understand why they have topped 100 points on so many occasions recently.

If you look at some of the games where Dallas have failed to score 100+ points..
96-91 vs Lakers (187 total)
92-93 vs Hornets (185 total)
99-96 vs Cleveland (195 total)
87-86 vs Nets (173 total)
77-82 vs Bulls (159 total)
84-81 vs Blazers (165 total)
87-99 vs Bucks (186 total)

Average total across these games = 178.5

I understand this is a small sample size. But generally when Dallas faces a team that plays with similar defensive intensity to Portland's (I believe the Blazers will play BIG defense tonight on their home court after 2 consecutive losses, look to dictate the pace of the game, (relatively slower) and hold the Mavs to under 100 points) the total fails to supass 190.

Portland have also held 6 of their last 8 opponents to under 100 points. (average of 88 points allowed in those 6 games)

Portland have also averaged just 86 points allowed in their last 10 games including opposition such as Miami, Orlando, Houston, Denver, Lakers..

The Blazers have averaged 94ppg on offense their last 10 games overall.

The previous matchup between these two also resulted in a 84-81 dallas win (165 total points)

I see value with the 'UNDER' 189.5 here and I believe the score will be roughly 95-90 to Dallas..

nice info

i'm with ya on the under.
DALLAS is 5-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

flocko76 · 03-15-11, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by twelvejewelz

I may take dallas, then the under, then parlay the 2. I like them tomorrow but still need to look a little more into it.

Why would you do this? this parley is a waste. you either go 3-0 or 1-2 or 0-3, parleys are throwing money away.

demens · 03-15-11, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by christhegun

Take the home dog and be happy about it.

Yeah, home dogs are 3-12 when facing the Mavs. Lots to be happy about making a negative infinity EV play.

zombie autopilot · 03-15-11, 01:01 PM

I can't see myself betting against Dallas, especially when playing against a mediocre team. If you have doubts, skip this one. If you wanna bet, take dallas.