does this strategy work?

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  • Illtakethoseodds
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-19-08
    • 331

    #1
    does this strategy work?
    one of the things i've noticed with 2nd half betting..is when the one team has a large lead at halftime ..the other team usually out scores the leading team in the second half..especially if that trailing team is on their home floor. they fight to keep the game respectable or the leading team softens up in the second half if the lead is big, resting their stars and slowing down the pace..the team playing catch up...is sometimes even given points in the second..

    i've been hitting my second half bets more than any of my others applyin this strategy..sometimes those trailing teams come back and even win it.. but when they dont you still can win the bet as long as they lose by less than what half time deficit was.. im wondering if you guys ever followed the pattern.. or have history betting second halfs in this manner...

    last night i went 4 for 4 on these 2nd half bets.. and some of the leads werent even that crazy.. still the same thing happened in each of them..mia , indi , nj, hou... some even won the game...
  • buztah
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-07
    • 7470

    #2
    Stick with it as long as it works. All systems fail eventually though. You should ask JJ about this. The man believes in a "system-less" style and it has worked for him as a professional gambler for some time now.
    Comment
    • Illtakethoseodds
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-19-08
      • 331

      #3
      cool maybe hell stumble upon this post..and add his insight..

      I try a systemless style all the time!..lol i want to get some patterns going.. see if i can really beat the bookey
      Comment
      • buztah
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-23-07
        • 7470

        #4
        I have paged him.
        Comment
        • SexyMit
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-12-06
          • 6139

          #5
          Yeah I have done very well with 2nd half in the ncaa tourny. Villanova the other night against clemson and Xavier last night. Those have been where my real money has come in almost breaking even with everything else. Win a few then lose a few. But I will be checking more into it though. Can go back the last few mths or so and do some research. But where would you find the lines at for previous games?
          If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

          I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
          Comment
          • Illtakethoseodds
            SBR Sharp
            • 03-19-08
            • 331

            #6
            hmmm.. i guess what needs to be checked is really just the half time scores.. and compare them to final scores of those games..see if the trend is obvious with the trailing team cutting the lead.. i dont know about the lines though..its really the second half lines that apply this this.. i think
            Comment
            • SexyMit
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 10-12-06
              • 6139

              #7
              Yes that is true I will see what I can dig up
              If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

              I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
              Comment
              • AgainstAllOdds
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-24-08
                • 6053

                #8
                Originally posted by buztah
                Stick with it as long as it works. All systems fail eventually though. You should ask JJ about this. The man believes in a "system-less" style and it has worked for him as a professional gambler for some time now.
                a system-less style? It has worked for him? I thought I saw him at BarrledIn.com...he must be doing well with this system.
                Originally posted by SBR_John
                AAO = good dude. Buying you a drink in Vegas buddy.
                Comment
                • buztah
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-23-07
                  • 7470

                  #9
                  Hank is the best bettor at SBR. Why do you think they call him "Clever Webber?"
                  Comment
                  • SexyMit
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 10-12-06
                    • 6139

                    #10
                    He doesn't post very many plays that I see...
                    If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                    I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                    Comment
                    • AgainstAllOdds
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-24-08
                      • 6053

                      #11
                      Originally posted by buztah
                      Hank is the best bettor at SBR. Why do you think they call him "Clever Webber?"
                      cleverwebber.com

                      hank"slugger"webber.com

                      Originally posted by SBR_John
                      AAO = good dude. Buying you a drink in Vegas buddy.
                      Comment
                      • Illtakethoseodds
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-19-08
                        • 331

                        #12
                        i think im gonna try it for the this detroit/wash game.. detroit is too good to be down by 11.. if the scores is anywhere near this at half time..it should be a good example of what im talkin about..

                        2 units on Detroit.. waiting on that 2nd half spread!
                        Comment
                        • Arnold
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-17-07
                          • 906

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Illtakethoseodds
                          hmmm.. i guess what needs to be checked is really just the half time scores.. and compare them to final scores of those games..see if the trend is obvious with the trailing team cutting the lead.. i dont know about the lines though..its really the second half lines that apply this this.. i think
                          You do need the actual half-time spreads to know if it works or not, after all this is what you're betting on.

                          The point differential in the 2nd half after the visiting team was down by half-time is -0.09. That means the leading home team wins the 2nd half in such games by 0.09 pts. Now, if the visiting team is winning at half-time, then the final point differential in the 2nd half is -3.02. This is for this season only.

                          But I wouldn't get all happy and think that you can take all losers at half-time that are getting points. Bookmakers aren't that stupid to give away free money.
                          Comment
                          • Illtakethoseodds
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-19-08
                            • 331

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Arnold
                            You do need the actual half-time spreads to know if it works or not, after all this is what you're betting on.

                            The point differential in the 2nd half after the visiting team was down by half-time is -0.09. That means the leading home team wins the 2nd half in such games by 0.09 pts. Now, if the visiting team is winning at half-time, then the final point differential in the 2nd half is -3.02. This is for this season only.

                            But I wouldn't get all happy and think that you can take all losers at half-time that are getting points. Bookmakers aren't that stupid to give away free money.
                            i hear ya.. i layed off the det/wiz game cause the spread at half time was -6.. and they are down by 7.. so that means they have to lose by 1 point or win the game.. that margin is a lil tighter than what im usta seeing.. thanks for the info!
                            Comment
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