Dallas @ Miami -7

[lyon804]

this game is on NBAtv. Lyon, didn't you say something about road teams/underdog covering when playing on NBAtv?

It has been a good network for some odd reason for the road teams.Now, I haven' tracked it to be honest on paper but my memory which can betray me. You can go to NBAtv.com and look at it if you like.

[JR007]

"Lay it with the Heat, as they get their revenge vs. the last team that handed them a loss tonight. That's right, Miami has won 12 straight, but it was these Mavericks who beat them November 27th, in what was a turnaround moment for this Miami team. No question they'll be looking to make a statement here.

Several things have changed since the last time these teams met. First, the Heat are playing some of the best team defense in the NBA, leading the league in opponents field goal % (.424) and second in points allowed (91.2). They've finally gelled, and the results are clear for anyone to see. Dallas shot 46% in their last meeting, while forcing Miami into 15 turnovers - two numbers I doubt we'll see again tonight.

Second and just as important, the Big 3 have learned to coexist with their teammates. Look at the boxscore against the Mavericks the last time, what do you see? All James, Wade, and Bosh. Nothing else. Look at the boxscores over their win streak, what do you see? More team basketball, more assists, and more involvement (especially from the PG position). Not to mention, James looks much more comfortable in this offense of late, which spells big trouble for the Mavericks tonight.

Finally, looking at each team's individual accomplishment, don't you find it a little fishy that Miami is favored by this much? Basically oddsmakers are making it easy to bet the Mavericks. Why would they make it easy to bet a team that's 21-5 overall and 8-1 SUATS on the road?! Don't get sucked in by the points, Miami has had this game circled since that November 27th loss. Lay it with Miami over Dallas Monday."

[MrShrink]

this game is on NBAtv. Lyon, didn't you say something about road teams/underdog covering when playing on NBAtv?

THIS is how you want to shape your decision on this game? Wow.

[adam3401]

Revenge factor. I think Miami covers easy. Seems to be a "trap" bet to take dallas. Why would the books make a line that seems to be a no brainer by giving a good team like Dallas so many points.?

[MrShrink]

just checked out the ref stats on this one...

2/3 of them favor the home team by about 5 pts a piece. The other is neutral. The 2 that favor the home team have avg totals of 199.5 and 203.2, while the neutral ref clocks in at an avg total score of 206.3 over 18 games .

[og4667]

THIS is how you want to shape your decision on this game? Wow.

yes shrink this is how I shape my opinion.

[demens]

I like Dallas for a few reasons.

1 is that i dont think its wise to bet against their record. Road record and road ATS are outstanding. Miami does not have a good ATS record in comparison.

Dallas winning streak was just snapped. Easier to play without the pressure of a long winning steak on your head. Miami has exactly that.

Miami has not been dominant vs good team this year. Beating up on the weak is 1 thing, but this is not a good close game team. Not yet. So i see no reason to back them here. I dont see Dallas folding and giving up on the game, so i see this one being close and the Mavs have the edge if thats the case.

These are 2 of the leagues top 5 teams. I dont think either one should be favored by 7 points. Its not like Miami is coming off an impressive win or anything. They looked like a joke vs one of the leagues worst team. Taking the game lightly is no excuse either.

Both teams are rested, that should not be an issue. Dont love the fact that Dallas has Orl tomorrow but there is no chance they will be looking ahead in this spot or give up on the team.

Dont buy the revenge angle either. Thats not as big a factor as people make into. Match-up and form is what matters more and i dont see how that favors either team so i think its smart to take the team with added points.

P.S.
On a different subject. Will there ever be any order or organization on this board. There are like 4 threads for this game.

[jbatcha21]

I like Dallas for the 1st half. Miami seems to really get things going in the 2nd half.

[BigJ]

Love Dallas tonight. Will gladly take the points.

[Borat38]

Revenge as a capping angle is overrated IMO. There are plenty of mismatches in the NBA that lead to season sweeps.

[demens]

Revenge as a capping angle is overrated IMO. There are plenty of mismatches in the NBA that lead to season sweeps.

Agree. But i think the biggest overrated angle is a B2B. It offers no advantage what so ever.

[rob_nuts]

Crazy 1st quarter

[CheeseHead]

I mentioned this in SJ's thread and people may not agree but...

Miami/Dallas is being offered straight up on ESPN's Streak for the Cash game today. The goal of this game is to build the longest winning streak by picking winners of random sports props/games. These props/games tend to be around -110 on both sides, with some -140/-150 favorites each day.. When there are huge favorites on the board (Miami, -300 today), it tends to be a trap. I've been playing the game for probably a year and a half now, and there are plenty of those "trap" games put up on the board. Of course, there's still times those "traps" win and Miami could very well win tonight. But, this makes me think that there's a good possibility that Dallas could win this game straight up as well. It seems that as good of a team as Dallas is, they should be able to keep it within 7 at least. You guys don't have to agree with me on this and it's just my opinion...thought I would throw that information out there... Good luck on whatever you decide!

[MrShrink]

best play (if any) on this one, imo:

teaser parlay of DAL spread and the over.

Think I'm just gonna put a few units on the over and 1 on DAL su.