I honestly can't find any reason to ever lay 10+ in the NBA. I don't care who the team is. Last night I capped the Lakers being 25 better than the clippers, but I can't pull the trigger when giving 15.5 as was last night. Am I giving up some value here or what do other people think?
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well itz tough seeing a dbl digit lines. i usually stay away from it.
but i think itz all abt how u 'cap' the game. for me, if i think the better team is gonna play to their maximum ability on a particular night and if they're known to 'kill' their opponent once they have the ballgame, then itz easier for me to bet on them. for me these teams are the lakers, celtics, magic, hornets and gsw from time to time, just to name a few off the top of my head. also, i think the most important thing to consider is the timing of the match up. say, they have or are on a long road trips, games they are expected to win shld be put in the bag as early as possible. once that happens, 3pointers shoot with a lot more comfort as the game isnt on the line, stars continue to look for their shots or assists, reserves play much better coming off the bench, etc etc. if u can foresee all these things on a game, then itz easier to lay the points. if not, stay away or take the pts. btw this is only ONE angle i consider betting on a dbl digit spread. and believe me, there are lots of things to consider on ANY given game.
goodluck!Comment -
You know the saying everyone makes a run in the NBA tough to lay DD good chance of getting back doored. Its tough but I do not do it very often. Unless heat are playing.
good LuckComment -
Junkman is absolutely right, double digits is a great way to get back doored. Lakers were obvisouly the better team and most the public knew it would be a blow out. Best bet is to leave double digit plays alone unless you have an information play on it.Comment -
I try to avoid the good teams that don't really bury others. San Antonio, for instance, is great on the M.L., but seldom destroys teams. They'll let mediocre teams stick around. I'll also try to stay clear of a team like Detroit -- teams that play up and down to their competition (see last night as an example, even though I thought Detroit should've covered).
Lakers, Rockets, Jazz (at home), mostly the Celtics ... I'm comfortable taking them up in the 15- and 16-point range.Comment -
I wouldn't lay DD even if the Lakers were going up against the Rice team.Comment -
Thanks for the responses guys. I'm glad I"m not the only who thinks that way. Back door covers are a killer.Comment -
Lakers are something like 7-2 on covering spreads of more than 7 at home since Dec 9. (They have their share of blowouts) Always hard to lay those DD's but with a recored like that, i like my chances. There is so many today, like 4.Comment -
yesterday there were a few. I think this is where I really have to go over my stats. I showed Boston as being 27 better. Laying 11 is still a comforting zone. They win by 30. Again it's still hard to lay the 11. I had some free play money on bookmaker I"m sorry I didn't parlay some of it from boston on to Houston who was my other strong play. Once the spread hits 10 a monkey in my brain says RUN!!!!!!Comment -
that monkey is in everyone's brain, thats why the Books do it!
They so use to seeing the single digit sread and when they see that "BIG" DD, alot of people automatically think , "....need to take the dog" ....or "....that's so much, something must be up, lets go dog" It's a brain wash sort of number. I wouldnt be surprise if they made a killing off of it.
On that same note, i kind of like sacramento today vs the lakers but decided to lay off. U either hit it and look good or lose the DD play and look like a fool. Still like them though
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You are so right,but I have been screwed over by the Heat twice this year with a DD line.The thing I found was if you don't take a chance on a DD line sometimes you end up betting on allot of visiting teams if that's the only time you bet on the good teams.(i hope that makes a little sense.Comment -
Since 1990:
NBA Favorites of -10 or more (Pushes Omitted)
ALL: 1733-1921, 47.4% ATS
Home: 1592-1754, 47.6% ATS
Away: 141-167, 45.8% ATSComment -
When there is a DD favorite, then you're basically betting on whether or not there will be a blowout. If a team is hot (like Houston, Boston, Philly, Lakers/Raptors@home until recently, etc), then why not? Also, when a DD dog is really cold, then they lose almost every game by DD. Just think of recent Memphis and Seattle a while ago.Comment
