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is that wisconsin line gonna go higher?Comment -
Bean, Ayo, Sonny, Buck what do you think is a good parley to throw together?Comment -
Wat u guys think ab Bonnies tonight get their big man back tonight... And all ab louisville beanComment -
PATS VS JETS
14wins-2loses 11wins-5 loses
` ATS 10-5-1 ATS 9-7
13 over-3under 12over-4 under
Game three of this season's series between these two rivals should be a
classic. The hatred these two teams have for each other is palpable, and over
the past couple of weeks it has grown to epic proportions. I haven't seen these
two teams this amped up to play, since the Jets stole and employed the Pats then
Offensive Coordinator, Eric"Fredo"Mangini to be their head coach! The drama level
got so out of hand between the players in the media over the past couple of weeks, that
the NFL Commissioner (Rodger Goodell) called both teams and insisted that it stop.
PATS OFFENSE VS JETS DEFENSE .
Brady is having an MVP year with 3,900 yards, 36 td's, 4 int's , and has
not thrown an interception in 355 consecutive passes(NFL record). The Pats
offenses DVOA(+46.1%) is #1 in the NFL in most every offensive category. Here is a small taste of what the Pats are #1 in: overall offense, first half offense, second half
offense, shotgun set offense, and last but not least red zone offense.
Besides having the best QB in the NFL, the Pats have a Plethora of wide
receivers, Welker(86rec:848yds), Branch(706yds), Tate(432yds), and Edelmen (86yds) can be a force to be reckoned with! The Pats brought in two rookie tight ends: A. Hernandez(563yds), Gronkowski(546yds), both have enough speed to stretch the line backers of the Jets creating room for the umpa lumpa's to run wild underneath! This gives the Pats offense the ability to go over the middle to Welker and Branch! In fact these two rookie TE's have been instrumental in the Pats passing game and the 20+yds a rec shows just how important they are in stretching field!
TE 's + WR's (20+yds)(td's)(rec)(yds) (avg)(yds/g)
A. Hernandez 9*** 6 45 563 12.5 40.2
R.Gronkowski 11*** 10 42 546 13.0 34.1
Welker 6 7 86 848 9.9 56.5
D. Branch 9 5 48 706 14.7 64.2
Tate 8 3 24 432 18.0 27.
Woodhead 3 1 34 379 11.1 27.1
The running game of the Pats is the second in offensive DVOA in the NFL and.
With throw away rb's from other teams such as Danny "Dannyboy" Woodhead (547yds)(rec 379yrds), and "The Law Firm"Ben Jarvis Green Ellis (1008yrds), they both have been sure handed this season! Ben Jarvis has not fumbled this season, and Danny "Boy" has lost the ball only once! The Pats should key their running game to the left side of their line where they have a clear advantage statically vs. the Jets D-Line. Running to the right side of the Jet's D-line should be a strength for the Pats all day. Plus Danny"boy"Woodhead is a jets cast-off who the Pats picked up after he hit the waiver wires, so he should be motivated to show the jet's ,they made a mistake by cutting him!
In week 13, the Pats destroyed the Jets 45-3, so revenge is on the Jets mind. In that game the Pats threw 20 of 48 passes from the shotgun set and averaged 10.5 yards per play. This is going to be important today because if the Jets are 29th in the NFL giving up 6.5 yards in the shotgun set( one of the worst in the NFL)! On 19 regular pass plays(non-shotgun plays) the Pats average 6.7 yards a plays! See the difference? it might be a long day for the Jets if they don't go back to the defense they were the year before.
One more glaring weakness to the Jets defense is stopping third down conversions. The Pats are the best in the league at converting third downs. The Jets defense went from 1st to worst in third down conversions.
JETS OFFENSE VS PATS DEFENSE
The Jets run a simple offense for Mark "Dirty" Sanchez to take the pressure off the kid. Sanchez is not a great cold weather QB being from CA but he is 3-1 away in the playoff games in his first two years in the NFL. The key for the Jets offense will be running the ball and keeping Brady off the field. The two times this season the pats have been beaten, was by Minny and Cleveland. Both teams controlled the clock and ran the ball over 25 attempts for their game, ultimately keeping Brady off the field and winning the games!
The Jets offensive line has a huge advantage over the Pats D-Line, The Jets are ranked 3rd in the NFL and the Pats defensive line is ranked 21st in the NFL. In pertaining to short yardage situations this year the Jets are 2nd in the NFL converting 76% of the time where as, The Pats are 30th in the NFL allowing a 71% defensive conversion rate. There are 2 big injuries for the Jets offense today they are (RT)
Damion Woody and (QB) Brad Smith. Missing D.Woody's (RT) : lead blocking on the right side might bring down LT's amazing 12.6 yd avg vs the pats left side of the D-line!
Brad Smith who is the kick returner and QB who runs the JETS pistol (Jets wild cat)
offense.In the pistol offense Brad smith is averaging 7.5 yards a play (best in the NFL) and he will be missed today! His absence will hurt both the jets on special teams (return game), plus the jets offensive coordinator play calling ability will be limited w/o him running the pistol offense!
The Pats defense is one of the best in the NFL, or so people think! They
are a young group, who have been tested somewhat, but have looked weak in some
games! If there was a weakness it would be there pass defense giving up 258yards a game(30th). The lack of a consistent pass rush by the pats has exposed the DB's youth and inexperience! The Pats pass defense has gotten better in the second half of the season with pass defending the other teams #1wr(Edwards:904yds) and #2wr (Holmes:764yds) ,but they got worse in defending the #3wr(Cotchery:433yds), and RB(LT:rec355) pass out of the back field! Both of these two players Cotchery and LT will give the Pats young defense a problem on game day.
This might be a big weakness for the Pats defense today, with defending
dump offs to LT(rec355) out of the backfield, and runs to the right side(12.6avg).On top of that passes to the jets #3wr (cotchery), and a pats killer over the past years should be there for the jets all day long! The Jets without D.Woody (RT) will be a big lose and might hurt the 12.6 avg running to the right side. The absences of brad smith on the pistol offense to keep the pats off balance, might result in it being a long day for the Jets. The Jets should use there bread and butter play bootleg right throw back over the middle to (TE) Dustin Keller (687yds) (who is a stud), and has been a effective weapon against the Pats in recent games! If LT (906yds) and Green (766yds) take advantage of that right side of there Off-line's (12.6yards) domination over the Pats D-line, they could keep Tom Brady off the field long enough to get a win. The Jets pass game doesn't have a WR in the top 50 in rec.
rec yds avg yds/g Lng TD 20+ 40+
Dustin Keller 55 687 12.5 42.9 41 5 11 2
B.Edwards 53 904 17.1 56.5 74t 7 14 5
S.Holmes 52 764 14.3 62.2 52 6 11 3
LTomlinson 52 368 7.1 24.5 0 2 0 0
weather report: 20% of precipitation and freezing point once the sun goes
down. I live in Boston and it is cold here! We got a little snow last night and
weren't supposed to get any at all!so it very well could show up for the game!
DVOA REPORT:
JETS ON OFFENSE
NYJ OFF NE DEF
DVOA 5.6% (16) 5.5% (19)
WEI DVOA -0.3% (19) -1.0% (10)
PASS 10.3% (19) 8.6% (17)
RUSH 9.6% (5) 1.2% (23)
RED ZONE -2.7% (20) -4.5% (14)
PATS OFFENSE
NE OFF NYJ DEF
DVOA 46.1% (1) -7.8% (6)
WEI DVOA 49.8% (1) -9.5% (5)
PASS 72.6% (1) 1.5% (7)
RUSH 27.0% (2) -19.5% (2)
RED ZONE 47.4% (1) 3.9% (19)
NYJ NE
DVOA 5.3% (5) 4.1% (8)
NYJ kickoff -0.6 (17) 10.9 (5)
NE kickoff 20.0 (1) -4.8 (26)
NYJ punts 15.4 (2) 8.9 (3)
NE punts -2.0 (21) 7.8 (9)
-1.8 1.5 (15)
TRENDS REPORTS:
JETS TRENDS
# Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
# Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC.
# Jets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
# Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
# Jets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.
# Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
# Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
# Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
PATS TRENDS
# Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a
winning road record.
# Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.
# Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30
# Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
# Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
# Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
# Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of
3.5-10.0.
# Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
# Patriots are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than
15points in their previous game.
BAD TRENDS FOR PATS
# Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite of
3.5-10.0.
# Patriots are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than
90 rushing in their previous game.
# Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
# Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
# Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
# Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games.
PICKS AND LINE MOVEMENTS: It opened at -9 for the Pats and has gone to -10 with69%on the Pats spread wise and ml 67% of the public is on the Pats ml (A GIFT) and the over is the play!The o/u was at 45 and went up to 45.5 with 79% of the public on the over the move up .5 is justified!
MY ADVICE IS TAKE THE POINTS+10 AND THE OVERComment -
what do you guys think of this write up ? something i wrote to get hired by sbr but i haven't heard anything back is that bad?Comment -
Anyone think Chattanooga wins outright vs Georgia Tech? +1200 on ml?Comment -
SBR hires people to do what?Comment -
write game previewsComment -
thanks sonny i like the picksComment -
Great thorough analysis Bean.Comment -
the pays got to be horrible, make more money with good picks
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Great write up bean how longs one take you?Comment -
uab +5.5 2xLETS GET ITComment -
LETS GET ITComment -
Whats up boys
here's What I'm on today so far:
St. Bonnie -3
UAB +4
Louisville +2
Oklahoma +2Comment -
Thats my dude right there sonny .. YOOOOOO GOTTIIIIIIIIIComment -
Georgetown +2Comment -
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Bonnies ml 5x
St. Petes +4 2x
G town +3 2x
Uconn 1h -1 2x
Louisville +1 1h 2x
NBA
Bucks ml 5xComment -
Xavier over 135 3x
Morehead St over 124 3x
Cleve St +2 1x
Long Beach under 140 1x
Valpa over 136 1x
Texas over 130 1xComment -
youngstown st +10.5Comment -
louisville +2 1x no yancy for cinny means less rebounds and a lack of a inside game for cinny but the coaches sat him on the bench. the cards need this win and should get it.
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nets +12 1x
2half under 67.5 1x wiskey / purdue
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taking the day off boys, good luck with all of your picks!!!Comment -
What's up everyone. Been busy the last few days handling some bs; hope everyone been doing well.Comment -
buck like bucks too
bucks ml 3xComment -
wyoming +7 .5x
wyoming/ utah under 140 .8x utah si banged up and hurting for offense and wyoming is that bad we'll see the under is good play with these 2 going offensive machines they are not!! .8x total added 3.
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do you guys like sd st or n.mexico later?Comment -
any 10 pm games guysComment
