who has the balls to take the Wizards ML?

**lyon804** · 10-28-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Can the Wiz win straight up as +14 point dogs on the road? Without Gilbert the gunslinger?

I'm going to throw them a bone. This is the NBA, where drama happens. 1st game of the season. Will there be Magic or Wizardry tonight? This has the making of a blowout so I'll put a Cnote on the underdog ML. The Wizards are my new OKC of the East.

Or am I better off making it rain at the strip club.

Most definitely. I would like for you to purchase a red-ring instead and report back with pics afterwords.

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Can the Wiz win straight up as +14 point dogs on the road? Without Gilbert the gunslinger?

I'm going to throw them a bone. This is the NBA, where drama happens. 1st game of the season. Will there be Magic or Wizardry tonight? This has the making of a blowout so I'll put a Cnote on the underdog ML. The Wizards are my new OKC of the East.

Or am I better off making it rain at the strip club.

True, drama does happen in the NBA. Unfortunately, most of it is off the court.

A couple of thoughts. It is the first game of the season. Anything can happen. However, disparity in talent on these two teams is substantial. With Wall at the point, and Blatche finally growing up, Wiz almost have to be improved. Magic have legit shot to come out of East this year.

If anything, Wiz are probably better off with Arenas out. Besides being a huge and seemingly endless distraction, when Gilbert plays, ball does not move, offense becomes stagnant, Gil gets his 25-30 and Wiz lose. Arenas era is likely over...problem is Wiz need to find a way to unload him without taking huge financial hit. Won't happen until he is healthy and stays out of trouble for awhile.

ML is a long shot. I would only do it if you are putting up a very small % of your bankroll, for fun. Easier to find good +money plays on Friday or Sat., when you have many games to pick from...particularly early in the year when the linesmakers are still trying to sort things out.

Good luck with whatever you do. Enjoyed the pictorial tribute to playboy.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 05:44 PM

That's a win no matter what happens.

But since Arenas isn't in jail, I got to throw some crap table money on the Wiz. I think there's a good chance they cover the 1st half as well.

**tonyp0387** · 10-28-10, 05:44 PM

lol get a lap dance.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 05:46 PM

Solid info LineWiz. I won't test the bankroll. Just a bet in the blind.

**Fed_42420** · 10-28-10, 05:47 PM

Yea theres no way they can win in my opinion. Josh Howard is out, Gilbert is out, and Hinrich and Wall are both playing with injuries. After they get healthy they will be fun to watch and probably win a few but not now on the road at Orlando.. But $100 for $1300 may be better than going to the strip club, Orlando may still be thinking about being at the strip club all offseason...

**Muggy** · 10-28-10, 05:57 PM

Nah, that's money down the hole, not for me. But hey, there's big upside I guess.

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Fed_42420

Yea theres no way they can win in my opinion. Josh Howard is out, Gilbert is out, and Hinrich and Wall are both playing with injuries. After they get healthy they will be fun to watch and probably win a few but not now on the road at Orlando.. But $100 for $1300 may be better than going to the strip club, Orlando may still be thinking about being at the strip club all offseason...

I have seen absolutely nothing about injuries to Hinrich or Wall. Where did you see anything about injuries or health concerns with either?

**miyakuza** · 10-28-10, 06:05 PM

Mac4lyfe, Goat Milk already told you to burn your money, might as well go light the fire if you keep thinking these type of things will happen. Upset is called an upset for a reason.

**chiliv5** · 10-28-10, 06:08 PM

i hope so, that would be awesome..... i would think the line is that high for one reason.... vegas beggin people to get on Wash!

**texan13** · 10-28-10, 06:11 PM

not me; magic takes this game today

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

Mac4lyfe, Goat Milk already told you to burn your money, might as well go light the fire if you keep thinking these type of things will happen. Upset is called an upset for a reason.

Yeah, didn't he tell me to burn my Cavaliers bet last night

After further inspection, I'm going to put up a buck fifty on the Gizzards +1100 and a little on the 1st half ML +450. Who needs points??? BOL all

**giants06** · 10-28-10, 06:21 PM

no way; orlando easy tonight

**THEGREAT30** · 10-28-10, 06:21 PM

making a pick like Wiz moneyline will leave you ball-less for the near future

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Fed_42420

Yea theres no way they can win in my opinion. Josh Howard is out, Gilbert is out, and Hinrich and Wall are both playing with injuries. After they get healthy they will be fun to watch and probably win a few but not now on the road at Orlando.. But $100 for $1300 may be better than going to the strip club, Orlando may still be thinking about being at the strip club all offseason...

Unless Fed_42420 knows something I don't know, and would care to enlighten us, there is no info out there about injuries to Wall or Hinrich.

**miyakuza** · 10-28-10, 06:23 PM

No, he told you to burn your money for thinking about putting money on the sixers ML.

@ trying to look smart

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

No, he told you to burn your money for thinking about putting money on the sixers ML.

@ trying to look smart

That bet had value. That and the Cav ML were both solid. Unfortunately the 76ers suck and are much softer than I thought. If they would have taken care of the ball they would have had a chance. Heat coming off a questionable game 1, if the 6ers would have came out strong they could have put some doubt in the Heat. It's only 1 loss.

Didn't the Wiz split wins with the Magic last year? +1100 basically means you can bet the Wiz 11 times and if they win once your even. I'll take those odds. That's better than betting hard 6 or 8.

**miyakuza** · 10-28-10, 06:52 PM

The odds were MOST DEFINATELY against you! How is that value?! Thats just flushing money down the toilet. In gambling, that isn't the right view of what value is. The value would be to pass.

**daniell** · 10-28-10, 06:57 PM

novalue here at all; just leave it

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 07:01 PM

Mac...since you have an interest in NBA (I love handicapping NBA), going to throw in a couple of thoughts....just opinions. You are right...surprisingly, Wiz did split four games with Magic last season. Won one game in Orl by 1 pt, got blown out the other. Not sure that makes a difference in this matchup going forward (although I do expect Wiz to improve on last year's wretched 26-56). In any case, if you took a team at +1100 eleven times (betting identical amount each time) and they one once, you would actually be up...$10 x no. of units per bet. But you could lose a lot of plays waiting for that one to cash.

Several different ways to try and stay ahead of the curve in the NBA. If you are looking for plus money plays without just pissing in the wind, one thing to do would be to try and determine teams that might be undervalued going into season (prior to last night, I would have put Memphis, Clev, NY, and yes, Wash. in that category), and looking for them in good spots as modest to medium dogs. If you are looking at a team (Toronto, Phil) that has not had recent success (last season or two), and with a roster that features no one who has enjoyed much success elsewhere...you are usually throwing money away.

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 10-28-10, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by daniell

novalue here at all; just leave it

Thats the stupidest thing i've heard all day. Congrats, you just won that award for today.

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 07:26 PM

One other team to keep an eye on early for value against the line is the Clippers. In spite of their tortured history, and disappointing start last night, they have a decent starting five (though a thin bench), and an all-world rookie. If this team does not lose heart, they could be competitive early. Do not expect them to get much respect from linesmakers (and understandably so) for the time being. They could be a play in certain spots getting points at home, or as a modest dog on ML.

**Grind House** · 10-28-10, 07:29 PM

You could've just gave me them $100 and called it a night.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by linewiz

Mac...since you have an interest in NBA (I love handicapping NBA), going to throw in a couple of thoughts....just opinions. You are right...surprisingly, Wiz did split four games with Magic last season. Won one game in Orl by 1 pt, got blown out the other. Not sure that makes a difference in this matchup going forward (although I do expect Wiz to improve on last year's wretched 26-56). In any case, if you took a team at +1100 eleven times (betting identical amount each time) and they Won once, you would actually be up...$10 x no. of units per bet. But you could lose a lot of plays waiting for that one to cash.

Several different ways to try and stay ahead of the curve in the NBA. If you are looking for plus money plays without just pissing in the wind, one thing to do would be to try and determine teams that might be undervalued going into season (prior to last night, I would have put Memphis, Clev, NY, and yes, Wash. in that category), and looking for them in good spots as modest to medium dogs. If you are looking at a team (Toronto, Phil) that has not had recent success (last season or two), and with a roster that features no one who has enjoyed much success elsewhere...you are usually throwing money away.

I cap the Wiz winning straight up over the Magic 1 out of every 6 games. If I can get Wiz +600 or better, it's a good bet for me. I know up front I may lose 5 games in a row and I'm not emotionally spent if that happens. That 6 time is where I'll make my money because the line is very inflated especially early in the season, in a new arena with players possibly looking ahead to tomorrow.

I agree with your assessment of teams that are undervalued and Washington is sure one of them. They may stink up the joint until the All Star break but I expect them to play well for stretches this season.

Dallas and Denver may be undervalued as well, especially at home. Peeps think both are under turmoil but they have leaders on their teams.

**linewiz** · 10-28-10, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I cap the Wiz winning straight up over the Magic 1 out of every 6 games. If I can get Wiz +600 or better, it's a good bet for me. I know up front I may lose 5 games in a row and I'm not emotionally spent if that happens. That 6 time is where I'll make my money because the line is very inflated especially early in the season, in a new arena with players possibly looking ahead to tomorrow.

I agree with your assessment of teams that are undervalued and Washington is sure one of them. They may stink up the joint until the All Star break but I expect them to play well for stretches this season.

Dallas and Denver may be undervalued as well, especially at home. Peeps think both are under turmoil but they have leaders on their teams.

I understand what you are saying, and yes, if you are willing to take your lumps, one win can cancel out a whole lot of losses. And whether you miss the cover by 3 points or 30 does not matter, still just one loss.

Denver is banged up (Andersen and K. Martin out), and Carmelo just reiterated his desire to leave. He has put the organization in a no-win position. I do not think he will be happy until and unless he gets to play in NY. As far as Denver goes, in spite of their winning impressively last night, I would tread lightly with them.

As far as Dallas, I am not aware of any turmoil there. In spite of a glaring lack of youth, they have one of the deepest and most talented teams in the NBA. Chandler in and Dampier out is a net gain, I believe. They will be worth looking at on the road, when they are giving just 3,4,5 points to teams they would be giving 7,8,9 points at home. I think they will have far more value on road than at home. X-factor will be Caron Butler, who can score and rebound, but was a bit of a disappointment after he came over from Wiz last season.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 09:32 PM

The turmoil in Dallas is all the early exits the past 4 years and Mark Cuban not making enough moves. Very few people expect Dallas to compete for a title, most think they will make another early exit in the playoffs. Kidd and Nowitski another year older and the same soft as butter team. That's what people are saying. Noone is giving Dallas a chance. They are an afterthought by many but I think they will cover lines.

Carmelo wanting to leave will also cause most bettors to fade the Nugget's but that will make Melo have to play harder IMO. Nene, Sheldon Parker and Harrington are all the big men they need.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 10-28-10, 09:33 PM

This was not the night to take the Wiz. John Wall looked like shit and kept jacking up shots and turning the ball over. They're offense is horrendous and it's not because of Howard in the middle. They may be a good team to take the under for a bit. They have zero 3 point shooters and can't do anything mid range. Not good.

**DeeWizzle** · 10-28-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by miyakuza

The odds were MOST DEFINATELY against you! How is that value?! Thats just flushing money down the toilet. (In gambling), that isn't the right view of what value is. The value would be to pass.

The key word here is "Gambling".... If it hit I don't think the "Value" would be questioned. The same people who bash Bill Belichick for going for it on 4th and 10 on on his own 30 and fails, are the same ones calling him a genius when it works the very next week.