a SBR poster adviced me to follow your thread; holy words!! New here and few points, but you deserve. Thank you
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Comment -
I appreciate the points given away, not so much the value but for the meaning
4th system UNOFFICIAL
Den +2
NO -1 **
LAL -8.5 **
SAnt -7.5 **
Orl -7 **Comment -
THESE are what you like ,just found a notice your RED HOT??? GLAComment -
what does it mean GLA? Hoping not GL (+A).Comment -
MY real initials !!Comment -
Glen Anderson
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1-3 so far today on the unofficial system.Comment -
GL or GLA same for misfortune!!
result 2-3 (started 0-3)
ytd UNOFF 16-6Comment -
NO +11.5
Por +3.5
Chi -8 **
Dal -7.5 **Comment -
Caracalla, you are a very accomplished sports bettor across all lines, but I really have to break it to you... There is no misfortune or bad luck because somebody wished you good luck. You either have the goods that particular day or you don't. It is borderline psychotic to see it any other way.
I will close by saying.. Good Luck
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I agree. Heres a quote by an old school mobster "People think im lucky but I'm a successful gambler because i never bet on an event whose outcome im not sure of in advance. I employ research, fact finding and due diligence. I create my luck."Caracalla, you are a very accomplished sports bettor across all lines, but I really have to break it to you... There is no misfortune or bad luck because somebody wished you good luck. You either have the goods that particular day or you don't. It is borderline psychotic to see it any other way.
I will close by saying.. Good LuckComment -
And I agree with you, but you can check all my yearly thread.
Everytime someone wish me good luck, than for me is a bad day.
Misfortune? NO. BUt please stop GL, GLA, GLLLT etcComment -
I never wished you gl until now. It was just a joke really hopeing you have a great day today and then you will see my point that it does not have any bearing on your outcome. AS for the past with people wishing you gl... that is just short term variance and will correct itself over time. So in otherwords what you are saying.. someone that has been as successful as you over many seasons and many sports would have had all your success wiped out if you was wished good luck everyday. Essentially that would mean you went from a winning bettor to a loosing bettor just because somebody wished you good luck? Anyways, I know you have the goods and you arfe very accomplished guy, but tell me this.... Your systems.. Are they DB originated running Simulations or you doing Excel Stats? Just curious it won't hurt to tell me. I won't ask what is in them.Comment -
Started 10 years downloading 5-6 years data for all sports (games, results,odds) from lot of website.
Then I used Excel stats to find some good "rules" (AND, OR, IF function most important)
Then I built a DB (Access) for simulations (VBA)
And then I went back to Excel using Pivot better to study "large numbers" and trends.
Actually I use DB only on starting season to check discrepancies and, if possible, find remedial.
This year NBA so many discrepancies!! So I returned to a system (4th, but it was the first) I was using 8-7-6 years ago and that I had left because bookmakers had changed lines. I'm supposing that now bookmakers to cover the new holes have discovered the old onesComment -
Good stuff Caracalla. I imagine many of the descrepancies you are seeing has something to do with the large turnover in the NBA this season with respect to personnel. I predict your systems will be more on target as your data develops more. I look for you to have a strong 2H run as most modelers do.
I believe in numbers and having data to fall back on but what works best for me is studying situational analysis in regards to form as well. I also look at movements in respect to lines to give me an edge. One of the best features of line movement that I am sold on is whenever you see a 1.5 pt to 2 pt move in the NBA in regards to the favorite on the point spread with the ML surgaging upward and the total for the game dropping by 2-3 pts or perhaps more.. That favorite is going to hunt that day my friend. The scenario I just have happened 4 times this weekend and worked all 4 times. Miami on Friday, Saturday. Boston on Saturday, Orlando on Sunday. All road favorites in the 7-9 pt range. It works way more than it doesn't if you look back at your DB and record line movements as well.Comment -
Sorry if I did not articualte it well Tommy. My typing is bad most of the time because I type in a rush and use poor english. To answer your question.. I was discussing a move of 1.5-2 pts on a favorite. for example the favorite opened at 6.5 and went to 8, the money followed suite and the total dropped as well. I can't post any other examples but here is example from yesterday. Study the example below and look for a similar occurence moving forward. This was ORL@LAC last nite. Orl covered. It got dicey at the end from what was a blowout early, but nevertheless still worked. Notice the opening line -6.5 and watch how the spread moved up and the ML surged forward as well all along with the total dropping. Later on some value bettors stepped in and bought Clippers late, but the total never budged. Look closely at the time line. It will help you to read it better by going to sbr odds and pulling up yesterday. This occurs throughout the season numberous times and is always a good bet as long as injuries are not a factor.
12/11 15:15 -6½ -105 / +6½ -105
12/11 22:50 -6½ -101 / +6½ -109
12/12 00:20 -6½ -104 / +6½ -106
12/12 01:08 -6½ -107 / +6½ -103
12/12 04:48 -6½ -110 / +6½ +100
12/12 06:16 -6½ -113 / +6½ +102
12/12 06:32 -6½ -116 / +6½ +105
12/12 06:35 -7 -107 / +7 -103
12/12 09:12 -7 -102 / +7 -108
12/12 09:17 -7 -103 / +7 -107
12/12 09:33 -7 -105 / +7 -105
12/12 10:36 -7 -114 / +7 +103
12/12 10:37 -7 -113 / +7 +102
12/12 10:43 -7½ -105 / +7½ -105
12/12 10:44 -7½ -113 / +7½ +102
12/12 10:47 -7½ -117 / +7½ +106
12/12 10:49 -8 -110 / +8 +100
12/12 10:52 -8 -108 / +8 -102
12/12 10:57 -8 -110 / +8 +100
12/12 11:43 -8 -109 / +8 -101
12/12 12:02 -8 -110 / +8 +100
12/12 13:50 -8 -107 / +8 -103
12/12 13:54 -8 -104 / +8 -106
12/12 14:26 -8 -105 / +8 -105
12/12 15:43 -8 -106 / +8 -104
12/12 16:30 -8 -105 / +8 -105
12/12 17:13 -8 -106 / +8 -104
12/12 18:35 -8 -108 / +8 -102
12/12 18:42 -8 -104 / +8 -106
12/12 18:43 -8 -103 / +8 -107
12/12 18:44 -8 -107 / +8 -103
12/12 18:46 -8 -102 / +8 -108
12/12 19:01 -8 -104 / +8 -106
12/12 19:14 -8 +100 / +8 -110
12/12 19:15 -8 -101 / +8 -109
12/12 20:05 -8 +102 / +8 -113
12/12 20:10 -7½ -107 / +7½ -103
12/12 20:14 -7½ -105 / +7½ -105
12/12 20:15 -7½ +100 / +7½ -110
12/12 20:17 -7½ -101 / +7½ -109
12/12 20:23 -7½ +101 / +7½ -111
12/12 20:27 -7½ +102 / +7½ -113
12/12 20:29 -7½ +101 / +7½ -111
12/12 20:33 -7½ -102 / +7½ -108
12/12 20:34 -7½ +100 / +7½ -110
12/12 20:35 -7½ -105 / +7½ -105
12/12 20:40 -7½ -101 / +7½ -109
12/12 20:41 -7½ +101 / +7½ -111
12/12 20:42 -7½ +100 / +7½ -110
MONEYLINES
12/11 22:43 -265 / +235
12/12 01:10 -275 / +244
12/12 06:17 -300 / +264
12/12 06:32 -305 / +269
12/12 06:35 -311 / +274
12/12 10:06 -315 / +277
12/12 10:36 -330 / +289
12/12 10:37 -340 / +297
12/12 10:44 -345 / +301
12/12 10:45 -375 / +326
12/12 10:47 -390 / +338
12/12 10:50 -400 / +346
12/12 13:55 -380 / +330
12/12 18:36 -381 / +330
12/12 18:43 -371 / +322
12/12 18:44 -378 / +328
12/12 18:47 -371 / +322
12/12 19:02 -355 / +310
12/12 19:54 -362 / +315
12/12 20:05 -357 / +311
12/12 20:16 -345 / +301
12/11 15:16 192 +100 / 192 -110
12/12 02:41 192 +106 / 192 -117
12/12 02:58 191½ +102 / 191½ -112
12/12 03:52 191 -103 / 191 -107
12/12 07:25 191 -106 / 191 -104
12/12 08:22 190½ -105 / 190½ -105
12/12 08:23 190½ +100 / 190½ -110
12/12 08:30 190½ -103 / 190½ -107
12/12 08:32 190½ -105 / 190½ -105
12/12 08:45 190½ -103 / 190½ -107
12/12 08:51 190½ -101 / 190½ -109
12/12 08:58 190½ +100 / 190½ -110
12/12 09:00 190½ +103 / 190½ -114
12/12 09:03 190½ +102 / 190½ -112
12/12 09:05 190½ -105 / 190½ -105
12/12 09:09 190½ -103 / 190½ -107
12/12 09:22 190½ -108 / 190½ -102
12/12 09:23 190½ -104 / 190½ -106
12/12 09:40 190½ -101 / 190½ -109
12/12 10:22 190½ -105 / 190½ -105
12/12 10:24 190½ -110 / 190½ +100
12/12 10:26 190½ -108 / 190½ -102
12/12 10:28 190½ -106 / 190½ -104
12/12 13:54 190½ -101 / 190½ -109
12/12 13:55 190½ -103 / 190½ -107
12/12 14:31 190½ -104 / 190½ -106
12/12 15:56 190½ +100 / 190½ -110
12/12 16:01 190½ +102 / 190½ -113
12/12 16:41 190½ +104 / 190½ -115
12/12 16:58 190½ +102 / 190½ -112
12/12 16:59 190½ +100 / 190½ -110
12/12 17:32 190½ +102 / 190½ -112
12/12 18:07 190½ +103 / 190½ -114
12/12 18:52 190½ +102 / 190½ -113
12/12 18:52 190½ +102 / 190½ -112
12/12 18:52 190½ +102 / 190½ -113Comment -
Thanks, I got it now. Great infoComment -
Another 1-3 night.Comment -
Another 1-3, right, with 4Q foolish
ytd UNOFF 17-9
Please no more GLComment -
Char -5
Atl -4
Hou -9
Minn +3Comment -
Still unofficial?Comment -
Wow.. I missed a whole lot of chatting these past few days. And a 7-0 run. Well done.
Comment -
Always UNOFF
Result 2-2
ytd 19-11
today
LAL -4
Phi -5
Chi -5
Okl -7.5
Pho -9.5
Dal -6
I don't like, but system is systemComment -
all favorites? damnnn. hope you get your systems agreeing and start making$ in the nbaComment -
Result 4-2
YTD 23-13Comment -
Again all favorites, sorry
NJ -6
Bos -7
SA -1Comment -
Loving the Nuggets tonight..SA on the latter or a back to backComment -
This system (4th, even if I studied it many years ago) probably never official: I don't trust it so well as past years system. But last year system don't say anything so far, and I'm forced to change strategy, going back old system. I'm studyng it, wagering half of usual $$. It's similar a joke, not an investmentComment -
I don't need posting here for research!!! I spent lot of time on research, without posting anything anywhere!!!
If I'm posting UNOFFICIAL, only because everyone is following me have to know that there is some risk. OFFICIAL in the long run is SURE(and you can check all my threads), UNOFFICIAL is not so sure, even if profitable.
OFFICIAL: I can bet all I have
UNOFFICIAL: I can bet only superfluous
One more thing: open your own thread, with your picks and your feedback.
I DON'T WANT MY THREAD FULL OF USELESSSSSSS POSTS
Here, in SBR forum, lot of very good threads ruined by useless replies (Paco, Lakerboy, Lyons, etc).
I'd like having my threads with minimum replies, so everyone can check my picks without having to check 2000 useless replies
BYEComment -
Ebbearsfb1, Your 5 points very VERY VERY appreciated for my post #103. Sometimes I'm asking myself why I'm post my picks. You (and other posters as ElGreco, Tommy etc etc) are the answer.
Good night, from Italy (Padania). And if you don't know where is Padania, you have to wait 2-3 years (betting on it a future bet odd +10,000)Comment -
as a fellow 100% italian and working man... i very much appericate what your doing caracalla (bet half these people don't even know who he is)... makes life easier for me... thanks for all you do
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