Laker_crazy's Official ( NBA season Thread 2017)

**ManBearPig** · 04-08-11, 04:53 PM

I got DEN/OKC flying over 202...I can't believe the pace numbers I generated. This should be at least a 3 unit play for me as it could be an open game because both teams may not play all that much defense either. I'm obviously not capturing motivation in my lines but I couldn't believe how much over they are compared to usual because I'm usually within 5-10 of the line on avg if I'm not spot on.

Although I use other numbers, I think the pace numbers are most telling because I'm adjusting them to be or try to be what would happen if two teams played each other and I'm finding more often than not I'm pretty close to being spot on, I just wish I started calculating earlier this season.

**nickos86** · 04-08-11, 05:04 PM

The line movement suggets over is the play. Last meeting the line was at 205.5 and it went under = 195. Both team are VERY good defensively, but the pace is there during regular games. Slows right down when they are trying hard. Could be a trick depending on how seriously the teams will take it.

**70kgman** · 04-08-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

I got DEN/OKC flying over 202...I can't believe the pace numbers I generated. This should be at least a 3 unit play for me as it could be an open game because both teams may not play all that much defense either. I'm obviously not capturing motivation in my lines but I couldn't believe how much over they are compared to usual because I'm usually within 5-10 of the line on avg if I'm not spot on.

Although I use other numbers, I think the pace numbers are most telling because I'm adjusting them to be or try to be what would happen if two teams played each other and I'm finding more often than not I'm pretty close to being spot on, I just wish I started calculating earlier this season.

If you are using season averages only in your model and not factoring in recent play at all, you will probably come up with a lot of really bizarre looking numbers on Denver games. Using season averages only, An accurate total for a DEN/OKC game would be about 216. But since the Carmello trade Denver have played a completely different style, and just recently have the books finally caught on entirely and started adjusting Denver totals 10+ points lower than you would of normally seen them a month or two ago.

**Vreston** · 04-08-11, 05:28 PM

Big card tonight. BOL to you!

**ManBearPig** · 04-08-11, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

If you are using season averages only in your model and not factoring in recent play at all, you will probably come up with a lot of really bizarre looking numbers on Denver games. Using season averages only, An accurate total for a DEN/OKC game would be about 216. But since the Carmello trade Denver have played a completely different style, and just recently have the books finally caught on entirely and started adjusting Denver totals 10+ points lower than you would of normally seen them a month or two ago.

For this set of numbers I am using current pace and efficiency numbers, but it's funny you mention that because I was just thinking about how I could incorporate more recent trends. The problem right now is I can't calculate my own pace numbers because I don't have the necessary metrics to do so...next year I will, so I have to just use current. I'd say this current set of numbers that I generate does show the most promise, especially if I can incorporate more recent trends because I agree that you can't just rely on season averages and it's a culmination of factors.

I do calculate a few other numbers that look at more recent games...I think last 45 day, as well as head-to-head and 5gm averages so I am seeing more modest numbers, but the common theme though is they are all above the line at 203. All except the 5gm averages which is a modest 197 which may be my most accurate for this game, who knows.

Once the season is over I will spend some more time figuring out which numbers I need and don't need because I think I have everything I need for a useful system once I can figure out how I want to mine the data.

**nickos86** · 04-08-11, 06:08 PM

I had a small play on the under again in this one, but LC sometimes makes me change my mind. Now I am stuck. I think this is a trap. Help@

**1Time!** · 04-08-11, 06:54 PM

Wanna go large on the thuggets/thunder over..
Why do you like it LC?

**NBA_Brosuf** · 04-08-11, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by 1Time!

Wanna go large on the thuggets/thunder over..
Why do you like it LC?

It's a toss up. When that is the case, go small to test the water.

**fixedgames** · 04-09-11, 01:51 PM

What you think about ATL -2? Wizards are not well rested..

**CallMeCrazy** · 04-09-11, 04:41 PM

hey laker_crazy, are you gonna start to play mlb now that the nba regular season is almost done? if so, have you been successful at it before?

**brainick** · 04-09-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by CallMeCrazy

hey laker_crazy, are you gonna start to play mlb now that the nba regular season is almost done? if so, have you been successful at it before?

like your nickname in connection with LC, lol...

**mac miller** · 04-09-11, 05:59 PM

no plays for tonight?

**Laker_crazy** · 04-09-11, 06:24 PM

Hey Fellas,

Got late tonight so could not recap...will do so tomorrow,posting a few plays tonight

LC

**Laker_crazy** · 04-09-11, 06:26 PM

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA PLAYS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ( 09/04/2011)

( 2 UNIT PLAYS)

1) Cleveland Cavaliers VS Milwaukee Bucks ( Pick Game Totals OVER 192 @ -110) ( WON)

2) Utah Jazz Vs San Antonio Spurs ( Pick Game Totals OVER 201.5 @ -110) ( WON)

Cheers,

LC

**mikief87** · 04-09-11, 06:30 PM

Thanks LC!

**Soon2BRich** · 04-09-11, 08:52 PM

anybody like the under 105 in the 2nd half between rokets and the clippers??

**TeamTT** · 04-09-11, 09:48 PM

Cash the overs LC!!! Nice one

**skm39** · 04-09-11, 10:07 PM

2 for 2!

**mitmur1998** · 04-09-11, 10:36 PM

very nice. congrats on a 2 for 2 night

**kckc07** · 04-10-11, 01:49 AM

what do you think about the bulls-4?

**aussieH** · 04-10-11, 02:01 AM

Well done lc

**lomu** · 04-10-11, 04:13 AM

Nice work once again

**brainick** · 04-10-11, 05:17 AM

This guy hitting vegas with totals!!!

Congrats body!!

**mikief87** · 04-10-11, 09:11 AM

Nice job LC!

**LakeShow** · 04-10-11, 09:59 AM

Man thanks lc lost my ass on atl but made 15 units on your two plAys

**mhm83** · 04-10-11, 11:04 AM

Thanks LC, enjoyed tailing those two picks very much.

**Dingess300** · 04-10-11, 11:21 AM

Hey LC,
Any way you can get the plays up just a bit sooner? I missed both yesterday. Got lucky and had one of the plays but wad on the other side in the other game. I wouldn't have played it if I had seen your post. You really are amazing with your totals. Thanks again.

**GoG1211** · 04-10-11, 11:41 AM

nice job LC.

**phenomenon** · 04-10-11, 01:07 PM

Have an idea for today's match bro ?

**Laker_crazy** · 04-10-11, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Laker_crazy

LAKER_CRAZY'S NBA PLAYS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ( 09/04/2011) ( 2 UNIT PLAYS) 1) Cleveland Cavaliers VS Milwaukee Bucks ( Pick Game Totals OVER 192 @ -110) ( WON) 2) Utah Jazz Vs San Antonio Spurs ( Pick Game Totals OVER 201.5 @ -110) ( WON) Cheers, LC

Cash Both these OVERS for last night people

**Laker_crazy** · 04-10-11, 02:39 PM

Hey Fellas,

Let me Recap the previous two nights one by one.I have been lagging in doing so because of prior work commitments....will definitely have plays for the games today as well....Recapping now !!

**Laker_crazy** · 04-10-11, 02:43 PM

Hello everyone,

Let us Recap Last to Last Night i.e 08/04/2011

We Had 7 Plays worth 14 Units at stake:

Our Plays went ( 3-4) ( Adding a loss of 2.50 Units to Our Bankroll)

BREAKDOWN:

Point Spreads ( 0-3) ( - 6 units)
Team Totals ( 1-0) ( + 1.70 Units)
Game Totals ( 2-1) ( + 1.80 Units)

Cheers,

Laker_crazy

My Updated NBA Season Record 2010-11 : ( 453-380-5) (44.55 Units - 2.50 Units = + 42.05 Units)

Point Spreads ( 83-92-2) ( -21.19 UNITS)
Game Totals ( 226-164-1) : ( + 80.62 UNITS) ( Record Updated Till 08/04/2011)
Team Totals ( 98-81-2): (+ 4.00 UNITS)
Quarter lines ( 6-10-0): ( - 2.00 UNITS))
Half Lines ( 16-24-0) : ( -12.62 UNITS)
Player Performances ( 15-15-0) : ( + 1.56 UNITS)
Punjabi Tadka Special Plays ( 3-2-0) ( + 7.10 Units)
CBB Season Record ( 15-11) ( +6.00 Units)

**Laker_crazy** · 04-10-11, 02:46 PM

Hello everyone,

Let us Recap Last Night now i.e 09/04/2011:

We Had 2 Plays Worth 4 Units at stake:

Our Plays went ( 2-0) ( Adding a Profit of 3.80 Units to Our Bankroll)

Game Totals ( 2-0)

Cheers,

Laker_crazy

My Updated NBA Season Record 2010-11 : ( 455-380-5) (42.05 Units + 3.80 Units = + 46.85 Units)

Point Spreads ( 83-92-2) ( -21.19 UNITS)
Game Totals ( 228-164-1) : ( + 84.42 UNITS) ( Record Updated Till 09/04/2011)
Team Totals ( 98-81-2): (+ 4.00 UNITS)
Quarter lines ( 6-10-0): ( - 2.00 UNITS))
Half Lines ( 16-24-0) : ( -12.62 UNITS)
Player Performances ( 15-15-0) : ( + 1.56 UNITS)
Punjabi Tadka Special Plays ( 3-2-0) ( + 7.10 Units)
CBB Season Record ( 15-11) ( +6.00 Units)

**phenomenon** · 04-10-11, 03:31 PM

**WiseGrumpy** · 04-10-11, 03:57 PM

Very very nice job. Interested to see what you have today ...