Possible system thread...

[G's pks]

Might run a system thread for the NBA again this year... Had a very nice summer thread for baseball...enjoying the in between time for now, but I have something we could run with...so may run a thread this winter after all...

[peterpan19]

sounds pretty good

BOL

[G's pks]

sounds pretty good

BOL

Working on it from a few systems people sent me to review, one with some modifications seems to work up to now... Will review another year or two of data today...

[peterpan19]

so will you share the system with us or just post the picks ?

You know if you need help...just ask...

BOL

[G's pks]

so will you share the system with us or just post the picks ?

You know if you need help...just ask...

BOL

I prefer to just post the picks because what happens is people will start coming in posting the wrong picks! I am trying to figure out a second system to run to add more picks...this one will only yield around 75 picks a year. Anyone that sends me a system for review that they know is hitting positively...when I add the mods I will tell them what I did... that is the case with this one. After watching for a while some will figure this one out... Yes it is another series system that requires much more patience (not picks all the time).

[G's pks]

still working...will post up some numbers for review next...

[G's pks]

ok just figured out to get some help with this one will need to list exact number of a, b and c games...will work on that this afternoon...so if anyone would like to help save some time I should have some numbers posted this afternoon(give me 2 hours)...they will be based on bets of only -110, or -170...

[G's pks]

ok here is what I am coming up with modifying one system and one not modified yet...

For now lets call this one system #1...

2009 results NBA 3 game chase
66-10 -110
69-7 -170 (buying 3 points)

wins
A-37
B-15
C-14

the buying of three point picks won on the b,c and b bet again...

2010 results
67-7 -110
73-1 -170 buying 3 points
wins making the difference were 3x on a, 2 on c, 1x on b.

System #2
2009
50-9 -110
54-5 -170 wins buying the 3 pts were b 2, c 1, a 1x.

2010
45-6 -110
48-3 -170 buying 3 pts wins buying 3 were 2 b, 1 a...

These systems seem interesting with a few mods...anyone care to figure what the profit would be basing the risk amount to be set on all games...lets just throw out a number...how about risk on A bets is 25, b 50, c- 100...anyone want to help with profit testing...

[wrongturn]

Hi G, not clear about what you want to know here.

[G's pks]

Hi G, not clear about what you want to know here.

Just wondered if you feel with these numbers...notice the difference with the -170 and the -110...would it be better to play the -170 with a few more wins, or the -110 with less wins but saving the -60 on each game...

[wrongturn]

Just wondered if you feel with these numbers...notice the difference with the -170 and the -110...would it be better to play the -170 with a few more wins, or the -110 with less wins but saving the -60 on each game...

Assume each chase is to win 1 unit + previous loss. Let me check.

[G's pks]

Assume each chase is to win 1 unit + previous loss. Let me check.

thanks also I realize if the risk/reward is less...profit will be less...but just wondered if taking a few more losses will still allow profit or if the -170 is the way to go...

[wrongturn]

For -110, each series loss is -8.26 unit. For -170, each series loss is -18.68 unit. Therefore only the buying 3 points system in 2010 shows a profit, but I would think that is just luck.

[G's pks]

For -110, each series loss is -8.26 unit. For -170, each series loss is -18.68 unit. Therefore only the buying 3 points system in 2010 shows a profit, but I would think that is just luck.

it also involves following a trend... but thanks for the answers...

if you really like playing with numbers and have not been to this site dig in>>> http://sportsdatabase.com/

Thanks will work on the system a little more...to see what I can do...it was back tested two years...

[wrongturn]

Yes I like that database site. Just by looking I don't think buying 3 points converts enough wins from losses. In NBA, the end game is too crazy to have a stable 3 points advantage.

[lakerboy]

G's where can i buy 3 points for -170?

[HoulihansTX]

buying points, and chase systems are all good ways to burn a bankroll

[texhooper]

G's where can i buy 3 points for -170?

excellent rhetorical question...nowhere worth a damn, that's for sure.

[peterpan19]

ok here is what I am coming up with modifying one system and one not modified yet... For now lets call this one system #1... 2009 results NBA 3 game chase 66-10 -110 69-7 -170 (buying 3 points) wins A-37 B-15 C-14 the buying of three point picks won on the b,c and b bet again... 2010 results 67-7 -110 73-1 -170 buying 3 points wins making the difference were 3x on a, 2 on c, 1x on b. System #2 2009 50-9 -110 54-5 -170 wins buying the 3 pts were b 2, c 1, a 1x. 2010 45-6 -110 48-3 -170 buying 3 pts wins buying 3 were 2 b, 1 a... These systems seem interesting with a few mods...anyone care to figure what the profit would be basing the risk amount to be set on all games...lets just throw out a number...how about risk on A bets is 25, b 50, c- 100...anyone want to help with profit testing...

results to win 1 unit the whole series:
#1 2009 -110 -16.61
#1 2009 -170 -61.781
#1 2010 -110 +9.173
#1 2010 -170 +54.317

#2 2009 -110 -24.349
#2 2009 -170 -39.415
#2 2010 -110 -4.566
#2 2010 -170 -8.049

Now flat betting only possible to calc for #1 and 2009, because for other years you need to know the specific series a, b and c wins that year
based on flat risk 25, 50, 100
#1 2009 -110 -379.55
#1 2009 -170 -832.35

Now if you compare both and assume that to win is 25, you reduced your total losses in flat betting and -110 odds only by $35.70 or 8.6 %. Using -170 and flat betting you reduced your losses by 46 %.

Hope that helps

[G's pks]

results to win 1 unit the whole series:
#1 2009 -110 -16.61
#1 2009 -170 -61.781
#1 2010 -110 +9.173
#1 2010 -170 +54.317

#2 2009 -110 -24.349
#2 2009 -170 -39.415
#2 2010 -110 -4.566
#2 2010 -170 -8.049

Now flat betting only possible to calc for #1 and 2009, because for other years you need to know the specific series a, b and c wins that year
based on flat risk 25, 50, 100
#1 2009 -110 -379.55
#1 2009 -170 -832.35

Now if you compare both and assume that to win is 25, you reduced your total losses in flat betting and -110 odds only by $35.70 or 8.6 %. Using -170 and flat betting you reduced your losses by 46 %.

Hope that helps

Not looking real good...let me add the a,b, c totals did do them...will add in a little while...thanks for your help also...

[G's pks]

What we have to do is figure out a way where over 50 wins within the systems with cover the 7-8 losses...which really will total in the area of 21... Not happy looking over one of the systems the total amount of "C" games.

[G's pks]

Everyone thanks for the comments positive or negative...just trying to work out something that everyone can follow using system plays...

[G's pks]

Ok here are the exact numbers using certain variables that I added...

System #1 2010
A- wins 34
B- wins 22
C- wins 11

67-7

adding 3 pts. makes the system 73-1 with the wins being added in 3 a, 2 c and 1 b.

System #1 2009
A- wins 37
B- wins 15
C- wins 14

66-10

adding 3 pts. makes the system 69-7 with the added wins being 2x in b, and 1 c.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2010 System #2
A- wins 21
B- wins 21
C- wins 03

45-6

adding 3 points makes the record 48-3, with wins added in the following bets B, A, A.

System#2 2009
A- wins 27
B- wins 14
C- wins 09

50-9

adding 3 points makes the system 54-5 with the wins being a, b,b and c.

[G's pks]

Would anyone see some betting adjustments that would work?

[peterpan19]

I will take a look at it later on today, maybe I can find something, but a lot of C bets...

[G's pks]

I will take a look at it later on today, maybe I can find something, but a lot of C bets...

exactly what I thought...too many C bets... and that is with adding a game to the system someone sent me already!

[Fischnasty]

looks mathematically solid to me

[peterpan19]

looked at different combos:
a:b:c; #1 2009 -110, -170; 2010 -110,-170 etc
1:2:4
#1 -15.18, -33.94; 6.9, 10.41
#2 -21.27, -22.17; -3.81, -5.52

1:3:9
#1 -11.9, -36.8; 23.9, 43.17
#2 -30.6, -23.35; -10.9, -4.7

could find a combinatin were I turned a bad year into a good year

doesnt look good

[G's pks]

ok how about taking the weight off the C bet... maybe just for example 25, 50 than back 25... going to try to add a few filters later tonight...

[hels]

I know you're awesome G but you must remember that perfecting the chase systems for last year need to work for previous years as well. I think many of us get burned by the short-term trends and not the overall throughout the course of history trends.

If you can make it work I wish you all the best!

[G's pks]

I know you're awesome G but you must remember that perfecting the chase systems for last year need to work for previous years as well. I think many of us get burned by the short-term trends and not the overall throughout the course of history trends.

If you can make it work I wish you all the best!

I am adding different filters and working on it... For baseball I use a point system based on strengths weaknesses and added momentum filters that strengthened my system even more...along with several filters which i adjust for each series based on matchups... With the nba...I have not found the right crack yet for the system to work properly.. To be honest The JM system is one of the better ones for basketball...used to get his picks sent to me daily for free... Just the odds are always horrible...

[peterpan19]

ok how about taking the weight off the C bet... maybe just for example 25, 50 than back 25... going to try to add a few filters later tonight...

its not getting much better, still in red most of the years...

and yes we would need more years to backtest it...you know a model needs calibration, validation and testing...

BOL

[G's pks]

its not getting much better, still in red most of the years...

and yes we would need more years to backtest it...you know a model needs calibration, validation and testing...

BOL

I think what turns me off more is all the "C" bets...maybe back to the drawing board...not sure yet... If I could take a good system and modify and make much better that is my goal...not sure with this one... Might dig around for another one to mod...very hard starting from scratch....

[peterpan19]

between 20 and 28 % of the games go to a C bet, thats pretty much, 1 in 4 or 1 in 5... need a big roll and nerves...

[G's pks]

If anyone else has a system that they have been using for any sport but baseball...feel free to drop the info here or in a pm...and will be glad to run it and try to modify...that is how I got this one which is modified...