what things do you consider before betting an nba game, such as boston/los angeles?

[2daBank]

at risk of sounding like a smart ass, id have to say who is going to win is the most important factor to me....

far as line movement goes i think its a nice tool but when you get into playoffs i throw it straight out the window (as far as using it to try and pick a side) still always trying for the best number of coarse.....welcome and gl

[JustinBieber]

I think you will never know the true reason as you don't know who is placing the bets but it will be whatever the bookmaker thinks is most +EV.

Most line movements are because of sharp/respected people betting significant amounts of money on one side, and sometimes lots of money will follow these people too.

[PROfitableEnergy]

So it is safe to assume, that if Boston changes from +5.5 to +3.5, the bookmakers no longer thought +5.5 was FAIR TO THEM? So they adjusted to give them what they see to be a better price to suit themselves?

[JW Cash]

Consider the revenge aspect that Lakers carry over from the last Finals with Boston

[suicidekings]

So it is safe to assume, that if Boston changes from +5.5 to +3.5, the bookmakers no longer thought +5.5 was FAIR TO THEM? So they adjusted to give them what they see to be a better price to suit themselves?

Not exactly. From their perspective, if they get fairly balanced action on each side, they collect a guaranteed profit from the vig. If the betting is imbalanced (ie: 65/35 split), then they run the risk of paying out more than they take in and taking a loss on the game. Each line movement is an attempt to keep balanced action by making the 35% side more attractive to bettors, and if they succeed, they don't care who wins.

There are exceptions to this concept, but for the most part it explains what's going on with line movements.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Not exactly. From their perspective, if they get fairly balanced action on each side, they collect a guaranteed profit from the vig. If the betting is imbalanced (ie: 65/35 split), then they run the risk of paying out more than they take in and taking a loss on the game. Each line movement is an attempt to keep balanced action by making the 35% side more attractive to bettors, and if they succeed, they don't care who wins.

There are exceptions to this concept, but for the most part it explains what's going on with line movements.

So if Boston WAS adjusted to 3.5 from 5.5, it is safe to assume that Boston is what they considered to be the "35%" or is it **** versa?

Sorry for these down right ignorant questions, but please know you are helping me much, and your time is so appreciated.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Consider the revenge aspect that Lakers carry over from the last Finals with Boston

Judging by that, the Lakers have a whole lot of revenge to get.

2/11 in the finals against Boston.

[PROfitableEnergy]

So if Boston WAS adjusted to 3.5 from 5.5, it is safe to assume that Boston is what they considered to be the "35%" or is it **** versa?

Sorry for these down right ignorant questions, but please know you are helping me much, and your time is so appreciated.

In hindsight, I assume LA to be the 35 percent, so they are making it more attractive by spotting Boston less points? Thus evening out the picks so the public might lean more towards LA?

[AndyDCappa]

the above is true in some cases...

but to the bookmakers there's also the interest of pushing the majority of bets to the "losing side". hence making the loser more attractive, or at least not to scare people off of betting on the loser.

let's say the lakers are hometown fav with a spread, that's unlikely for them to cover, but the public keeps pounding on their favourite team. in a "balanced action" scenario the bookmaker would have to push the spread even further to make the opposite team more attractive (balancing the action).
but if, for the bookie, a loss ATS for the lakers is to be expected, he'll gladly accept the publics pounding and not move the line. -> forcing imbalanced action in the bookies favour!

GL

Andy

[vitalogist]

I will be following Tim Donaghy's posts on his Facebook page and playing them BIG.

[suicidekings]

the above is true in some cases...

but to the bookmakers there's also the interest of pushing the majority of bets to the "losing side". hence making the loser more attractive, or at least not to scare people off of betting on the loser.

let's say the lakers are hometown fav with a spread, that's unlikely for them to cover, but the public keeps pounding on their favourite team. in a "balanced action" scenario the bookmaker would have to push the spread even further to make the opposite team more attractive (balancing the action).
but if, for the bookie, a loss ATS for the lakers is to be expected, he'll gladly accept the publics pounding and not move the line. -> forcing imbalanced action in the bookies favour!

GL

Andy

This concept applies to a very small percentage of games, when the books have a strong lean because of inside information, etc. If a bookie has a good handle on the betting practices of his clients and has deemed them to be low risk players (ie: stupid), then this can happen. However for the most part, taking sides just removes the edge the book has by dramatically increasing their risk.

[AndyDCappa]

the question, i think, is...

how many stupid players are out there betting on the NBA PLAYOFFS?

[OverUnder]

i have no anger or hate towards anybody, i'm 21 years old with a house in the hamptons that i paid for myself... i'm loving life kid, i'd worry about yourself... it's just ridiculous how pathetic and obnoxious some can be... i admitted i'm a beginner and a square in the world of sports betting, so why come on here and purposely discourage me and be obnoxious and useless? i agree with you, hate does lead to suffering, but being a pain in the ass doesn't lead you down a good road either, in new york it tends to lead you into a dumpster with your legs hanging out in ways they weren't meant to bend...

Haha If I had a house in the hamptons when I was 21 being Daddy's money or not I would not have time for the SBR Forum, so why do you? Go out and spend that money and slam dime pieces every night, I know I would not need gambling when all I would have to do is say you ever been to the hamptons to some blonde and she says no. Then you say well I have a place there wanna see it? Automatic closer every time. Much more guaranteed than any line movement or w/e else someone recommended. Just my 2 cents.

[AndyDCappa]

it happens more often than one might believe..

just keep it in mind, when you see a line that get's hammered and just doesn't move..

[suicidekings]

In hindsight, I assume LA to be the 35 percent, so they are making it more attractive by spotting Boston less points? Thus evening out the picks so the public might lean more towards LA?

Correct.

One other thing to remember though is that those betting percentages you see on websites show the number of bets on each side, not the amount of money on each side. They are not necessarily the same thing, as a small group of educated bettors could be placing large wagers on one side while a larger group places much smaller wagers on the other side.

This could result in an 80-20 split during the regular season (not uncommon), and the key thing for you to be looking for is if that line moves at all. If it doesn't (or not enough to account for the imbalance in betting %) then it implies that the books are happy with the distribution of money, meaning that:

a) The bigger bets are on one side, or
b) The books are fine with imbalanced betting in this game

Either one implies that you don't want to be on the side carrying 80% of the action, and might want to be on the 20% side (but only if you can justify it for reasons other than line movement).

[suicidekings]

the question, i think, is...

how many stupid players are out there betting on the NBA PLAYOFFS?

Oh, a ton of them. I'm talking about a local bookie though. Any offshore book is accessible by a wide range of bettors so dangling a soft line to entice uneducated bettors is going to open up an opportunity for sharp money to swoop in and hammer them. When you're accessible to everyone, it doesn't really benefit you to be off-market.

[suicidekings]

I saw you mentioned parlays in the other thread. A note on parlays:

Read this thread, and check out the links listed in post #61 of it. Parlays have their place, but if you're just starting out, straight wagers are going to be more forgiving.

[hels]

It is truly funny how people come on here and say that line movement has no meaning, yet LakerBoy makes many of his plays based purely on line movement and it's the same people licking his balls in the "Who wants my Plays" thread.

btw the original intent of that thread was for people to pm him and he would send out a play. I believe the first time the play was Dallas-1 and he said, "hurry as the line will move to -2 before tipoff." Guess what, it moved to -2 pre tipoff but Dallas still ended up covering.

[sharpcat]

It is truly funny how people come on here and say that line movement has no meaning, yet LakerBoy makes many of his plays based purely on line movement and it's the same people licking his balls in the "Who wants my Plays" thread.

btw the original intent of that thread was for people to pm him and he would send out a play. I believe the first time the play was Dallas-1 and he said, "hurry as the line will move to -2 before tipoff." Guess what, it moved to -2 pre tipoff but Dallas still ended up covering.

What you fail to realize here is that after the line moves from 1 to 2 you now have a 4% less chance of winning your bet

This is why betting into a line after it has moved usually does not have value.

[lakerboy]

What you fail to realize here is that after the line moves from 1 to 2 you now have a 4% less chance of winning your bet

This is why betting into a line after it has moved usually does not have value.

Exactly. Its all about beating the closing #. During the reg season i did what many do. I saw a line moving and i beat it a slower moving shop or local. I also played early many times on lines that i predicted would move in my direction. If lakers are -5.5 now and you take the celtics 5 min before tip at 5.5 but it goes to 6 your chances of winning your boston bet decrease because you didnt beat the closing #. Can you still win ? Yes. Beating the closing # is the most important thing to do to win in gambling especially in NBA and NFL where lines are sharper than any sport.

[durito]

market price. nothing else.

[Goat Milk]

It is truly funny how people come on here and say that line movement has no meaning, yet LakerBoy makes many of his plays based purely on line movement and it's the same people licking his balls in the "Who wants my Plays" thread.

btw the original intent of that thread was for people to pm him and he would send out a play. I believe the first time the play was Dallas-1 and he said, "hurry as the line will move to -2 before tipoff." Guess what, it moved to -2 pre tipoff but Dallas still ended up covering.

Please can you pm them? I will give you some points if you tell me what they are playing. I'm just a minion I don't know any better

Thanks!

[magic8ball]

Another thing to consider is that big markets and favorite teams will have less value on the whole. An example would be if the cowboys were playing the rams, and the (true) line should be say 13 points. The books will often make it 14 1/2 because they know few (squares) will take them regardless of the spread. Thus getting closer to that 50/50 % bet number. Refs especially in the nba are also extremely important. Good luck. Oh, almost forgot, finding out who the worst cappers are betting on and fading them can be a bit useful at times too.

[hels]

What you fail to realize here is that after the line moves from 1 to 2 you now have a 4% less chance of winning your bet This is why betting into a line after it has moved usually does not have value.

I bet it before it moved to -2 so I don't know where you saw me saying I made the play after it moved. I said that it did move to -2 before tipoff but still ended up covering anyways.

[hels]

As well, line movement isn't only if there's movement from -1 to -2 or -10 to -13. It also implies a line moving from -106 to +109 at the same odds so you have to take that into consideration as well.

[hels]

Please can you pm them? I will give you some points if you tell me what they are playing. I'm just a minion I don't know any better Thanks!

I know I had mentioned in your thread about Boston losing game 1 that I'm not close to either LB or Paco so I highly doubt they would share their info personally with me and even if they were to do so I wouldn't spread it or make it public without their okay.

I just respect both of their opinions/efforts and think that these opinions can be greatly utilized in your own decisions.

This is similar to how Donaghy is picking right now. Let's say I'm heavily favouring LA-5.5 then Donaghy comes out saying Boston+5.5 is the play. This info would strongly make it a no play with how he's picking atm (13-1 I believe). Now if I thought LA and he thought LA I would probably increase the strength of my play.

[ouman101]

I think someone mentioned it earlier, but definitely keep motivation in the back of your mind. I think this applies especially to NFL, but NBA as well. Also, not sure if it was a coincidence or not, but this year in NBA when a star or major player was out of the line up. The team with the star out covered.

If you're just jumping into betting the NBA now I would probably wait until next season, but I guess you got a few games left. Say 6?

[fightingwarrior]

[will2survive]

Home court....

[sharpcat]

I bet it before it moved to -2 so I don't know where you saw me saying I made the play after it moved. I said that it did move to -2 before tipoff but still ended up covering anyways.

Never stated anything about whether you bet it or not

Simply was just pointing out that following the line movement is fine and dandy but betting into a line that has already moved whether it be on the spread or the moneyline has 9 times out of 10 already lost the value that it had which caused the line movement. Just because a ML moved from -120 to -135 does not mean that this team is going to win, it simply means that at -120 that team needed to win 54.5% of the time to break even and now that the line has moved to -135 they now need to win 57.45% to break even. I can assure you that you will not find many situations where the books are off much more than 5%. Assume sharps felt that the team had a 56% chance to win the game and therefore the original line was off so they made a good play, whereas buy chasing steam late you would be making a -EV bet because the line has already been moved to push the value back into the books favor.

Sharp sports bettors bet on percentages and take advantage of weak numbers, they are not necessarily betting on who is going to win the game therefore a line move is not necessarily an indicator of the outcome of a game.

[magic8ball]

i have no anger or hate towards anybody, i'm 21 years old with a house in the hamptons that i paid for myself... i'm loving life kid, i'd worry about yourself... it's just ridiculous how pathetic and obnoxious some can be... i admitted i'm a beginner and a square in the world of sports betting, so why come on here and purposely discourage me and be obnoxious and useless? i agree with you, hate does lead to suffering, but being a pain in the ass doesn't lead you down a good road either, in new york it tends to lead you into a dumpster with your legs hanging out in ways they weren't meant to bend...

Tool

[Domestic]

Really just go with my gut feeling, will occassionally browse some statistics but I'm not going to take into account irrelevant stats that date back 10 years etc.