what things do you consider before betting an nba game, such as boston/los angeles?

[PROfitableEnergy]

or any basketball game or sport game in general for that matter...

obviously moneyline, or point spread is top i would assume?

injuries
who is home or away
obviously the current roster
record against said team
current win or lose streak

anything else? anything not as much?

anything that you look at far more than another thing?

what would you say is a top 3 or even more in order of importance in your mind when betting a team?

[sharpcat]

Who the public likes more

[hels]

line movement is extremely important with the late line movement often giving you the outcome before the game has even started.

[PROfitableEnergy]

line movement is extremely important with the late line movement often giving you the outcome before the game has even started.

can you elaborate on this?

i am new to sports betting and layman's terms would be optimal...

thanks for any help

[Qwista]

it's bullshit, don't concern yourself with crap like that

[wolverines]

or any basketball game or sport game in general for that matter...

obviously moneyline, or point spread is top i would assume?

injuries
who is home or away
obviously the current roster
record against said team
current win or lose streak

anything else? anything not as much?

anything that you look at far more than another thing?

what would you say is a top 3 or even more in order of importance in your mind when betting a team?

throw that stuff away.. just flip a coin

[Goat Milk]

line movement is extremely important with the late line movement often giving you the outcome before the game has even started.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Why is everyone seemingly flaming? Is hels not correct and if he isn't can you post something intelligent to explain why you feel this way and what IS accurate?

[AndyDCappa]

Why is everyone seemingly flaming? Is hels not correct and if he isn't can you post something intelligent to explain why you feel this way and what IS accurate?

these, and many more challanges will get in your way... overcome them, you must!



no solution, there is!

be the eye, that sees, but doesn't see itself! (for real!)

GL

[PROfitableEnergy]

understood, weed out the dirtbags with no lives that think it's cool to just flame and purposely derail people

i'll just read books on it, and talk to king yao and others, obvious all you guys are just a bunch of clowns and loser virgin boys with no lives...

appreciate the help hels, atleast there are a few good people who want to lead others in the right direction and post productive informative things.

any big mouths that want to play some poker for $2000 heads up come see me, see how smart you little losers are when you're out of YOUR ELEMENT...

again appreciation to the goodhearted people who help and are informative, all others can go play with themselves for the 4th-10th time so far today, little beaker boy nerds

[AndyDCappa]

Do or do not... there is no try!

Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering!



Calm down...

[PROfitableEnergy]

i have no anger or hate towards anybody, i'm 21 years old with a house in the hamptons that i paid for myself... i'm loving life kid, i'd worry about yourself... it's just ridiculous how pathetic and obnoxious some can be... i admitted i'm a beginner and a square in the world of sports betting, so why come on here and purposely discourage me and be obnoxious and useless? i agree with you, hate does lead to suffering, but being a pain in the ass doesn't lead you down a good road either, in new york it tends to lead you into a dumpster with your legs hanging out in ways they weren't meant to bend...

[chimp]

line movement is extremely important with the late line movement often giving you the outcome before the game has even started.

IT DOES??! DAMN IT HOW COME I DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT THIS BEFORE?!??! I WOULD BE RICH

[suicidekings]

or any basketball game or sport game in general for that matter...

obviously moneyline, or point spread is top i would assume?

injuries
who is home or away
obviously the current roster
record against said team
current win or lose streak

anything else? anything not as much?

anything that you look at far more than another thing?

what would you say is a top 3 or even more in order of importance in your mind when betting a team?

Any factors that you feel are relevant to accurately describing both a team's current form, and how they matchup with their opponent. You should be looking to figure out what a fair line for a matchup should be and then comparing it to the available line to see where the value lies.

However, you're learning at the worst time of the year as there's not enough examples on a daily basis to really observe and get a feel for it. Don't stress out too much about the finer points right now.

[Mexes]

it's bullshit, don't concern yourself with crap like that

correct
analyze the game and give a shit on these linemovements, stay with your pick

[bogbat]

understood, weed out the dirtbags with no lives that think it's cool to just flame and purposely derail people

i'll just read books on it, and talk to king yao and others, obvious all you guys are just a bunch of clowns and loser virgin boys with no lives...

appreciate the help hels, atleast there are a few good people who want to lead others in the right direction and post productive informative things.

any big mouths that want to play some poker for $2000 heads up come see me, see how smart you little losers are when you're out of YOUR ELEMENT...

again appreciation to the goodhearted people who help and are informative, all others can go play with themselves for the 4th-10th time so far today, little beaker boy nerds

[suicidekings]

correct
analyze the game and give a shit on these linemovements, stay with your pick

Line movement isn't bullshit. However not every game will demonstrate meaningful line movement...

[JustinBieber]

NBA is an efficient market, line movement is important - meaning the closing number is the most efficient number.

Who the public are backing stopped mattering about 15 years ago afaik.

[shoebox]

understood, weed out the dirtbags with no lives that think it's cool to just flame and purposely derail people

i'll just read books on it, and talk to king yao and others, obvious all you guys are just a bunch of clowns and loser virgin boys with no lives...

appreciate the help hels, atleast there are a few good people who want to lead others in the right direction and post productive informative things.

any big mouths that want to play some poker for $2000 heads up come see me, see how smart you little losers are when you're out of YOUR ELEMENT...

again appreciation to the goodhearted people who help and are informative, all others can go play with themselves for the 4th-10th time so far today, little beaker boy nerds

i have no anger or hate towards anybody, i'm 21 years old with a house in the hamptons that i paid for myself... i'm loving life kid, i'd worry about yourself... it's just ridiculous how pathetic and obnoxious some can be... i admitted i'm a beginner and a square in the world of sports betting, so why come on here and purposely discourage me and be obnoxious and useless? i agree with you, hate does lead to suffering, but being a pain in the ass doesn't lead you down a good road either, in new york it tends to lead you into a dumpster with your legs hanging out in ways they weren't meant to bend...

I love the internet keep the stories coming!!

[PROfitableEnergy]

Yep so easy to brush it off, don't accept the challenge though.

I won't mention a word of it again, I couldn't care less what anybody on this forum thinks of me enough to lie about my financial situation or anything else for that matter. You really appear to have emotional problems and would be willing to bet a lot of money you live in a box. Grow up and stop flaming the board, you're a complete clown and the type of person that takes an intellectual conversation and ruins it simply by the shit eating grin you come equipped with. You're incapable of any sort of intelligent discussion and you're a losing sports bettor. Whenever you can borrow money from someone, mother, father, uncle, aunt, etc. please let me know and play me for 2k online. The fact you think someone is lying about money as small as 2k is pathetic and is a real reflection of YOUR financial situation. I feel bad more than anything. Get better.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Any factors that you feel are relevant to accurately describing both a team's current form, and how they matchup with their opponent. You should be looking to figure out what a fair line for a matchup should be and then comparing it to the available line to see where the value lies.

However, you're learning at the worst time of the year as there's not enough examples on a daily basis to really observe and get a feel for it. Don't stress out too much about the finer points right now.

Great post, so i will take note to line movements but not use this as the end all be all. I appreciate any knowledge you can give me, and if you have anything you can elaborate on or any great articles to read please PM me or post it here. Thanks a bunch for the help.

[AndyDCappa]

... You really appear to have emotional problems and ... ruins it simply by the shit eating grin you come equipped with. You're incapable of any sort of intelligent discussion and you're a losing sports bettor. The fact you think someone is lying about money as small as 2k is pathetic and is a real reflection of YOUR financial situation. I feel bad more than anything. Get better.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Another meaningful post, I can tell you really earned those 39 posts, with pure intellect and fulfilling useful blurbs.

[shoebox]

Yep so easy to brush it off, don't accept the challenge though.

I won't mention a word of it again, I couldn't care less what anybody on this forum thinks of me enough to lie about my financial situation or anything else for that matter. You really appear to have emotional problems and would be willing to bet a lot of money you live in a box. Grow up and stop flaming the board, you're a complete clown and the type of person that takes an intellectual conversation and ruins it simply by the shit eating grin you come equipped with. You're incapable of any sort of intelligent discussion and you're a losing sports bettor. Whenever you can borrow money from someone, mother, father, uncle, aunt, etc. please let me know and play me for 2k online. The fact you think someone is lying about money as small as 2k is pathetic and is a real reflection of YOUR financial situation. I feel bad more than anything. Get better.

Bought a home in the hamptons

[shoebox]

Yep so easy to brush it off, don't accept the challenge though.

I won't mention a word of it again, I couldn't care less what anybody on this forum thinks of me enough to lie about my financial situation or anything else for that matter. You really appear to have emotional problems and would be willing to bet a lot of money you live in a box. Grow up and stop flaming the board, you're a complete clown and the type of person that takes an intellectual conversation and ruins it simply by the shit eating grin you come equipped with. You're incapable of any sort of intelligent discussion and you're a losing sports bettor. Whenever you can borrow money from someone, mother, father, uncle, aunt, etc. please let me know and play me for 2k online. The fact you think someone is lying about money as small as 2k is pathetic and is a real reflection of YOUR financial situation. I feel bad more than anything. Get better.

[shoebox]

Yep so easy to brush it off, don't accept the challenge though.

I won't mention a word of it again, I couldn't care less what anybody on this forum thinks of me enough to lie about my financial situation or anything else for that matter. You really appear to have emotional problems and would be willing to bet a lot of money you live in a box. Grow up and stop flaming the board, you're a complete clown and the type of person that takes an intellectual conversation and ruins it simply by the shit eating grin you come equipped with. You're incapable of any sort of intelligent discussion and you're a losing sports bettor. Whenever you can borrow money from someone, mother, father, uncle, aunt, etc. please let me know and play me for 2k online. The fact you think someone is lying about money as small as 2k is pathetic and is a real reflection of YOUR financial situation. I feel bad more than anything. Get better.

[Goat Milk]

to the profit

Hels, did you get that PM from Paco or LB yet to ask them what we should do? I'm so lost

[bogbat]

Another meaningful post, I can tell you really earned those 39 posts, with pure intellect and fulfilling useful blurbs.

[sharpcat]

Sports betting is all about percentages and probability, if a line has moved although it does likely point to the valuable side of the line chances are if your bet was not part of the line movement than you have lost all value.

betting games after the line move usually has no value considering that the closing number is the most accurate market value you are not gaining any advantage.

The idea is to beat the closing number, if you can spot a team that has a higher percentage chance of winning a game than the line projects you should bet the "off number" before it moves. Just like the stock market your value lies in beating the closing number not betting into numbers that have reached or exceeded their fair market value.

[AndyDCappa]

spot on!

there's a flipside to that coin, though...

the human factor!

[ThisGuy]

[PROfitableEnergy]

Appreciate all the helpful posts, thanks hels, suicidekings, justin bieber, sharpcat, and anyone i may have missed.

[Sunde91]

Whichever side my quarter lands on

[jackny]

Line movement can help but you have to be careful with this.

[PROfitableEnergy]

So, if to go strictly by the logic of Hels, Boston opens up at +6, and then gets moved to +5.5, and let's say HYPOTHETICALLY, it moves to +3.5, this would mean what judging by line changes? That sharps were selecting Boston so they moved it to a price they felt more fair for the house? or they are trying to get squares to select Lakers and deter them from picking Boston by using this drastic change as a scare tactic? Obviously ignoring reverse line change scenarios, am I right to assume either of these to be true, maybe even a little bit of both?

They are trying to scare people off of Boston by setting it at a price that is more advantageous to the house, so squares may select Lakers off of a blind bet?

They are trying to give the house a better price/spread in case people choose to select Boston, so less value is gained by the ones betting Boston (or no value if they can't meet the spread in this case) if they do win?