Someone Stop Me From Betting the Car!

[bankjob]

Hey Guys, brand new to this site, but not new to betting. I have this game capped at Orlando -8 and of course we see the line is only -3.5.

I have a car I am trying to sell and I do own it outright. Was talking with my bookie this morning and told him I would bet the car against his money. The car is only a $7,800 blue book value car by the way and he said he would put up $6,500 for the bet. Meaning if I win, he pays me, If I lose, the car is his. By the way, it's not my only car, I have another one that is newer.

Also, he doesn't know which side I am taking yet, only that I want to bet on this game.

Here is my reasoning for Orlando:

1) They didn't give up in game 4 like everyone thought.
2) When they hit their shots and are playing Orlando basketball, they are one of the best in the playoffs.
3) Solid home court advantage coming off 2 home losses to the Celtics. Revenge.
4) Oddsmakers lost a ton of money in the first 2 games of this series at Orlando when the line was -6 to -7.5 in most places. Now they have adjusted to -3.5. Most bets are pouring in on Boston tonight as usual because everyone assumes they are the better team.
5) Boston is an older team and now being asked to play every other day in a possible 6 or 7 game series. The blowouts they have inflicted have been after 3 or more days rest.

Someone give me enough information that this is not a great play warranted of the risk.

All thoughts appreciated!

Thanks,

Noob

[refrain87]

Stop, don't bet your car. Happy?

[Manaconda]

dont do it

[Sawyer]

if your car is this, then feel free to bet it

[Laker_crazy]

Lol,mate you are funny.Get over this shit mate,today it is the car,tomorrow it may be your house...you gotta know that no matter how good a capper you are,gambling eventually gets the better of you and you have to be on your toes all the time to be in the profit in the long run and if this is how you are going to go about it,then my friend your's will be a short stay in this field.Get off this shit and place a normal bet just like we all do.Good luck man whatever you decide.

[bankjob]

Stop, don't bet your car. Happy?

Thank you for the input. I understand it goes against the laws of bankroll management, etc (Never bet the farm). However, I am looking for good to great reasons pertaining to this matchup and the game to not make this bet.

For example:
Celtics have beaten them twice at home already. Why not a 3rd straight.

Thanks for all the help!

[lyon804]

Absolutely, if you have another car by all means bet the 6500 car. Remember that cars are just temporary, but gambling is for life. I hope you and your wager tonite all the best.

[actionaddict86]

cant win with scared money....bank it lock it up
im all in on magic -4

[Dark Horse]

Thank you for the input. I understand it goes against the laws of bankroll management, etc (Never bet the farm). However, I am looking for good to great reasons pertaining to this matchup and the game to not make this bet.

For example:
Celtics have beaten them twice at home already. Why not a 3rd straight.

Thanks for all the help!

It's just not that strong of a play, based on what you've shared.

Assuming that betting your car is a big bet, I would expect you to know exactly what type of edge a 4.5 point overlay for a home fave gives you.

[SparJMU]

What if I told you that there is a very competitive basketball league in my town. In that league team A and team B have played 4 times in the last week. Team A won 3 of them and Team B won 1. In Team B's only win, the game went to overtime and Team A had two different chances to win in regulation but fell just short.

Would you wager your car that team B would beat team A by more than 3.5 points tonight?

My point is, if you really love the Magic tonight bet a few hundred dollars on it and enjoy the game. Don't bet $6,500 on 1 game and then find yourself asking afterwards "Why did I bet $6,500 on the team who is 1-3 in their last 4 matchups?"

[No coincidences]

I thought you meant figuratively.

[balman]

what if i told you that there is a very competitive basketball league in my town. In that league team a and team b have played 4 times in the last week. Team a won 3 of them and team b won 1. In team b's only win, the game went to overtime and team a had two different chances to win in regulation but fell just short.

Would you wager your car that team b would beat team a by more than 3.5 points tonight?

My point is, if you really love the magic tonight bet a few hundred dollars on it and enjoy the game. Don't bet $6,500 on 1 game and then find yourself asking afterwards "why did i bet $6,500 on the team who is 1-3 in their last 4 matchups?"

genius..

[mart59a]

I would think twice about this.
The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.
The Celtics are 4-0 SU and ATS following a SU loss.

Good Luck...It's your car.

[bankjob]

What if I told you that there is a very competitive basketball league in my town. In that league team A and team B have played 4 times in the last week. Team A won 3 of them and Team B won 1. In Team B's only win, the game went to overtime and Team A had two different chances to win in regulation but fell just short.

Would you wager your car that team B would beat team A by more than 3.5 points tonight?

My point is, if you really love the Magic tonight bet a few hundred dollars on it and enjoy the game. Don't bet $6,500 on 1 game and then find yourself asking afterwards "Why did I bet $6,500 on the team who is 1-3 in their last 4 matchups?"

It's a very good point. Black and white. I will also assume that's why near 70% are taking action with the Celtics tonight based on these basic observations? The obvious play is the Celtics exactly to your point.

It's just one of the reasons why I would ever consider going heavy on the Magic in this situation. If everyone expected the Magic to win like in games 1 and 2 of this series, the line would be near double (6.5-8 points). I always try to find value in the numbers. Key numbers in NBA betting are 2 and 7. In my analysis, the Magic will win by 8 or more points. If it's close, they win by 1-3 points or Boston wins outright.

Thank you for all the great information. Keep it coming I am still on the fence!

[antifoil]

i say bet your car

do you have a bookie that will accept a car as a bet?

[wrongturn]

I guess the car is the only bankroll you have, right? If that is the case, don't do it. Even Orlando has 80% of chance to win it by 4+, you never put 100% of your bankroll on it. It is that simple.

For other reasons, look at Carter and Lewis's stats in this series.

[SparJMU]

I am all about going against the public and finding value, but I don't know if that's the right spot to bet $6,500. If a team is 3-1 in their last 4 matchups, shouldn't that immediately tell you that Boston is the better team, or at least that Orlando doesn't matchup well.

Anything can happen, and personally I lost a shit load betting on Boston in game 4 so what the hell do I know, but I think you can find much better spots to bet such a large amount.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Lol good luck

[13th Street]

What if I told you that there is a very competitive basketball league in my town. In that league team A and team B have played 4 times in the last week. Team A won 3 of them and Team B won 1. In Team B's only win, the game went to overtime and Team A had two different chances to win in regulation but fell just short.

Would you wager your car that team B would beat team A by more than 3.5 points tonight?

My point is, if you really love the Magic tonight bet a few hundred dollars on it and enjoy the game. Don't bet $6,500 on 1 game and then find yourself asking afterwards "Why did I bet $6,500 on the team who is 1-3 in their last 4 matchups?"

WHAT HE SAID!!!!!!!

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

why dont you bet orlando ml.... so you don't sweat the points..... if your worried the ml wont cash..... why even bet the -4 imo... sell the car for 6500-6000.. take it and start your bankroll bet 5-7 % on each bet money management is key to success.....or blow it all on the magic -4 what they hell

[Pick'nParlays]

Gamblers Anonymous®
International Service Office
P.O. Box 17173, Los Angeles, CA 90017
(213) 386-8789 - Fax (213) 386-0030

[bankjob]

Hey Guys, great feedback here! Looks like the general consensus is that Orlando may not be the right play here and possibly too risky to bet the car based on the first 3 games of this series?

Just to answer a few questions. He and I are pretty much even and I only bet with him, no sports-book accounts. I won on the Celtics the first three games in this series, but lost the 4th like most everyone else. I also had the Suns the last 2 games going on this same type of logic and both games the home team pulled out the win/cover for me.

I could bet any amount with him under 1000, BUT he won't take straight money bets over 1000 typically. It actually started as a joke as I told him I wanted to bet big with him tonight, then the negotiating started as far as the price and the car. If I lose the bet, I'm out the car, not the cash. I own the car outright, no payments.

I appreciate all the feedback here, but I am more looking for reasons why Boston would stay inside the number or win in this game tonight (nothing to do with the first 4 games of this series).

Look at it this way. Everybody and their daddy were on the Magic in games 1, 2, and 3 of this series. Then, they were on the Celtics in game 4 and got burned. Just looks like the odds-makers are really putting it to the betting public in this series setting bad lines and obvious plays baiting the public to hammer the wrong teams in the wrong spots.

So does everyone agree that the Celtics look too easy in this spot?

[jgiun1]

I thought you meant figuratively.

DITTO..........

[Hybris]

[ijenpo]

Why would you put up a bluebook 7.8k car for 6.5k?
You're losing 1.3k right there. What do you think you can actually get for the car for resale?

[JuicedUp]

why dont you bet orlando ml.... so you don't sweat the points..... if your worried the ml wont cash..... why even bet the -4 imo... sell the car for 6500-6000.. take it and start your bankroll bet 5-7 % on each bet money management is key to success.....or blow it all on the magic -4 what they hell

[bankjob]

Why would you put up a bluebook 7.8k car for 6.5k?
You're losing 1.3k right there. What do you think you can actually get for the car for resale?

Had it on Craigslist and AT for about a month at the higher price with not many bites. Needs a new set of tires. Remember, he is a bookie, not carmax I am lucky he is even taking this bet.

[bankjob]

Been watching line movement here. The Magic are now -4.5 across the board with everyone still pounding the C's (hmmmmm?).

Needless to say, I just secured the Magic -3.5 with my bookie for the car.

Thanks for all the great input! Time to let the beers start flowing to numb the pain if this ends up a disaster

Magic 98-89

[ijenpo]

I wouldn't do it.
Short answer:
Orlando wins tonight, but doesn't cover spread.
Quote me on this.

[tbonmusikman]

why dont you bet orlando ml.... so you don't sweat the points..... if your worried the ml wont cash..... why even bet the -4 imo... sell the car for 6500-6000.. take it and start your bankroll bet 5-7 % on each bet money management is key to success.....or blow it all on the magic -4 what they hell

seriously, this is what you should do.

However, because it's a GREAT idea. Bet the car...but do it on the Boston ML and see if you can get more

[bankjob]

I wouldn't do it.
Short answer:
Orlando wins tonight, but doesn't cover spread.
Quote me on this.

If that happens (which it very well could!), it will sting even harder. I would rather the Celtics blow them out than the Magic win by a few points. Nobody wants to lose a close one.

Either way, I never said anything was a lock. I just believe it's the Magic's night here and I am willing to risk more than usual (ie: car) based on my opinion.

[SparJMU]

So you did in fact bet your car for $6,500 straight up? It's a done deal?

[bankjob]

So you did in fact bet your car for $6,500 straight up? It's a done deal?

Yup, done deal. If he wins, I sign over the title to him. If I win, he pays me $6,500.

Will be my biggest bet to date! The most I ever bet on an NBA game was 2K. I typically do bet between 100-300 each game by the way. I just have a strong feeling here.

Win or lose, I will be back betting on the Suns/Lakers game tomorrow for probably $300 on the Suns plus the points. Bynum has been absent the last few games and the Lakers suddenly can't shoot over the zone. Will wait to get +8 though for sure.

Thanks again for all the input

[hawley]

good luck mate

[cmle123]

i would say best bet today is magic money line. That negative 4 look real bad to me but i pretty sure magic take the win. this become like last year where magic weak up and take the series. if you willing wager that much at least get the number to your side