Hey LB

**Goat Milk** · 05-25-10, 06:48 PM

Lakers can only win this game with an under.

BTW books didn't get any money last night, they lost a shit ton on the Magic ML

**No coincidences** · 05-25-10, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Lakers can only win this game with an under.

BTW books didn't get any money last night, they lost a shit ton on the Magic ML

Were there enough on the Magic ML to cost them $$$? I would think Boston ML and Boston -7 got hammered enough to make up for it and then some.

**No coincidences** · 05-25-10, 06:51 PM

Phoenix in the exact same boat it was for Game 3 at this point -- being offered at +1.5/+102.

Under still getting pounded -- currently at 220/-117, down from 222/-110 to open.

**suicidekings** · 05-25-10, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Lakers can only win this game with an under.

BTW books didn't get any money last night, they lost a shit ton on the Magic ML

For the vast majority of the day, the BOS ML was sitting at -330 or steeper and the action on the BOS spread was one sided (65-35) but never moved off of -7 after its initial move from -6. A lot of people went for the kill on Boston yesterday, and I suspect the books took in a lot more than they paid out.

**Laker_crazy** · 05-25-10, 07:15 PM

Suns win this and the game goes under

**Goat Milk** · 05-25-10, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

For the vast majority of the day, the BOS ML was sitting at -330 or steeper and the action on the BOS spread was one sided (65-35) but never moved off of -7 after its initial move from -6. A lot of people went for the kill on Boston yesterday, and I suspect the books took in a lot more than they paid out.

Houl go look at the percentages that ppl were on Magic were on its ML then remember it was +300. Boston ML didn't get hammered. Boston -7 got hammered.

Books made no profit yesterday

**suicidekings** · 05-25-10, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Houl go look at the percentages that ppl were on Magic were on its ML then remember it was +300. Boston ML didn't get hammered. Boston -7 got hammered.

Books made no profit yesterday

Assuming the SBR lines ratio of bettors on the Magic ML (60-40) is representative of what happened everywhere, then a book would have to be be taking an average bet size on the Celts ML of 1.5 times what they took on the Magic. With the exception of Pinny/5Dimes/Matchy, all the MLs on this game were sitting at no less than a 60cent line, typically closing at around +290/-350. The vig accounts for about 40% of that 1.5 alone, meaning that on average if the books total take on the Celts ML bets was more than 1.3 times the expected payout on the Magic ML, they made money

Breakeven ratio: Magic ML (+290) x1 =< Celtics ML (-350) to win 1.3u

To me, the assumption that the bet size on the Celts ML averaged better than 30% larger than Magic ML bets is very reasonable. Those going big on the Magic were greatly outnumbered by those taking a flyer on them for a unit or two because of the fat odds...

**No coincidences** · 05-25-10, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Remember the thread you started a while back about the books getting their revenge soon? (which actually started last night)

Think that happens again tonight? Take Phoenix and under? Public, of course, is hammering the opposite. Sharps seem to be hammering Lakers and under. Phoenix and under seems like an illogical choice, which may be the way to go from here on out (like Magic last night).

Sonofafvckingbitch.

Picked a great night to take off.