85% of public currently on both Boston and the over

[No coincidences]

Those are some big public numbers, folks.

[suicidekings]

How many threads are you going to start about this....

The key word in your post is "currently". The line has been out for over a day, and yet tip-off is still another 18 hours away. Betting percentages mean nothing at this point.

[No coincidences]

Sorry -- it's late and I'm tired. It'll be interesting to see if these trends continue into Tuesday, because the numbers have been huge in Boston's favor so far. Might be setting up for a public beheading.

[lakerboy]

Magic roll

[chimp]

Magic roll

[No coincidences]

Magic roll

That's kind of what I'm wondering -- if the public's setting itself up to get blindsided here.

[jmilacek]

Magic roll

Yup.

[thirtytwo]

I agree, Magic setting up as a great bet...

[suicidekings]

Sorry -- it's late and I'm tired. It'll be interesting to see if these trends continue into Tuesday, because the numbers have been huge in Boston's favor so far. Might be setting up for a public beheading.

I've already played the Orlando series price at -110 (x12) tonight. IMO the change in the series price was an over-reaction from the books, to the point where it represents better overall value than playing the Magic on the spread/ML for game 2. Although I would be shocked if the Magic don't win Game 2. Will probably play the Magic 1Q as well.

[No coincidences]

Line for Game 1 was ORL -6. Boston dominates in nearly every facet of the game, runs into its typical fourth-quarter wall but hangs on for the win, then Vegas lures everyone back in with an Orlando -7.5 for Game 2 (everyone's thinking, how in the hell can they be even bigger 'dogs after that Game 1 performance? Give me Boston all day long)

[lakerboy]

Line for Game 1 was ORL -6. Boston dominates in nearly every facet of the game, runs into its typical fourth-quarter wall but hangs on for the win, then Vegas lures everyone back in with an Orlando -7.5 for Game 2 (everyone's thinking, how in the hell can they be even bigger 'dogs after that Game 1 performance? Give me Boston all day long)

exactly thats why you take the magic

[shari91]

Magic roll

[thebestthereis]

magic 400 game win streak over and their 30 point margin per game in the ducks series is long gone. they just got pounded by the celtics and this line opened at 7.5 in game two. someone just hit a water bong the size of the pacific ocean putting that line up. if their is a sucker bet in your back pocket this has to be it. there is no possible way this line was set to draw money on both sides, not in a million years.

[Wilforth]

Magic roll

I have Magic winning by 12.

[bzerob12]

Will anyone send me a mathematical formula to handicap these nba games? I really appreciate it. I'm new to the forum, but I've been taking substantial losses on these games. I'm betting 50 per game. Thanks.

[CHAZ]

I have Magic winning by 12.

Thats what I thought in the first game too. I feel like Orlando just got kicked in the nuts. Are they gonna get up and fight back or do they roll on the ground to get stomped on? It was such a horrible game. I don't think its possible for them to even play any worse.

I might bet OVER/UNDER but I'd like to see how the Magic adjust especially to the fact that Kendrick Perkins doesn't need the help on Howard which caused the Magic not to get as many open 3s like they are use to.

[Sawyer]

Magic will win..

Never bet against home team (favored by 5+) lost first game, down 0-1 in the series. They usually bounce back strong in Game-2. Can't see Magic going 0-2 here..

[Marathon Hound]

Hoping t even things up tonight

[WiseGrumpy]

Magic will win and UNDER is the play.

[SparJMU]

Based on Orlando's strong finish to game 2, Orlando 1Q seems like the smartest play tonight. I have much more confidence in Orlando coming out strong tonight early, as compared to maintaining that intensity for 48 minutes and covering a 7 point spread.

[thebestthereis]

Will anyone send me a mathematical formula to handicap these nba games? I really appreciate it. I'm new to the forum, but I've been taking substantial losses on these games. I'm betting 50 per game. Thanks.

there is no one formula unless you are able to adjust it everyday for every situation (my take at least). the nba playoffs are different the regular season to scheduling (biggest part) of the games and the locations. teams in the playoffs have more time off and less travel which allows for the true, better team to have the advantage. the celtics and lakers are the best teams in the league when rest and scheduling is factored in. this is why they will be in the finals.

[Bigcheez]

Have to go with the Magic tonight.

[suicidekings]

Will anyone send me a mathematical formula to handicap these nba games? I really appreciate it. I'm new to the forum, but I've been taking substantial losses on these games. I'm betting 50 per game. Thanks.

Go and look in the Handicapper Think Tank forum. You're asking a very broad question, and it's not as simple as plugging values into a formula. Also try reading about Pythagorean Expectation as the concept is very applicable to sports handicapping.

[ProfaneReality]

public or not i rather be getting the points than laying them here

[big0mar]

Line for Game 1 was ORL -6. Boston dominates in nearly every facet of the game, runs into its typical fourth-quarter wall but hangs on for the win, then Vegas lures everyone back in with an Orlando -7.5 for Game 2 (everyone's thinking, how in the hell can they be even bigger 'dogs after that Game 1 performance? Give me Boston all day long)

Has that logic worked thus far in the playoffs, especially on monday/tue/wed games?

[fly fisher]

I watched game 1, and looking at the way the game was called I think had a big impact on the game. My main point beign D Howard. Throughout the game, Howard had an elbow in his back pushing on him constantly while he had the ball and even shoved by the "big baby" or whoe ever was guarding him while trying to elevate for the shot. Normally or at least for the bulk of the time, a foul is called, but no foul. Dwight never got physical to counter that, whenever a team plays you like that you have to lower your shoulder and go through them until you get called for an offensive foul. Dwight didn't creat himself any space becasue he was getting pushed, and like I said, was not able to set his feet to elevate thus limiting him inside. Today, I think he gets the calls and is able to get the space to elevate and get good shots. Once that happens, the game changes for the Magic and some of those 3's start going in too.

I would like to hear other opinions on Dwight, but I think Celtics getting called for the pushes in the back, the hand on the hip while he is trying to elevate or even the grabbing of his arm (like Wallace did when he tried to jump) or a celtic defender wrapping his arm around his waist as he goes to put in a rebound, and the shot is short and celtics get the rebounds. If those become fouls this game, magic should have a great advantage. What do you all think?

[ijrod21i]

7 is a big number... maybe they won't win but 7?

[Snowball]

I watched game 1, and looking at the way the game was called I think had a big impact on the game. My main point beign D Howard. Throughout the game, Howard had an elbow in his back pushing on him constantly while he had the ball and even shoved by the "big baby" or whoe ever was guarding him while trying to elevate for the shot. Normally or at least for the bulk of the time, a foul is called, but no foul. Dwight never got physical to counter that, whenever a team plays you like that you have to lower your shoulder and go through them until you get called for an offensive foul. Dwight didn't creat himself any space becasue he was getting pushed, and like I said, was not able to set his feet to elevate thus limiting him inside. Today, I think he gets the calls and is able to get the space to elevate and get good shots. Once that happens, the game changes for the Magic and some of those 3's start going in too.

I would like to hear other opinions on Dwight, but I think Celtics getting called for the pushes in the back, the hand on the hip while he is trying to elevate or even the grabbing of his arm (like Wallace did when he tried to jump) or a celtic defender wrapping his arm around his waist as he goes to put in a rebound, and the shot is short and celtics get the rebounds. If those become fouls this game, magic should have a great advantage. What do you all think?

this is a fact.. one which is very important and could be the key to being on the right side. Celtics do need playoff-style officiating in order to contain Howard.
You know, where the refs let more go. That being said, even they call the fouls on defensive play against Howard, Celtics have plenty of guys who can absorb and spread around that foul count. Rivers is not worried about it. Let them foul he says because Howard is a poor FT shooter. If Perk is fouled out, Wallace has not been a downgrade in the playoffs. Also, even if Howard gets the calls, Magic will not be able to win without increasing their 3-pt shooting % substantially over last game. There is a thread here about Kennedy which I contributed to, showing that there is no clear advantage in the refs for Magic tonight. Perhaps it would be wise to wait until the 2nd half. Unless the Celtics have a commanding lead, Celtics ML is not likely to lose much payout. If Orlando has a lead over 7, Celtics ML will go up higher. If you're an Orlando bettor, you could be in a position to give up less or actually get points in the 2h if Celtics lead. It would be a wash if they are up 4-9 range and only disadvantageous to the opening line if Orlando is up 9+ or so.
So why not wait until 2h unless you think Magic are going to be up huge at half.
I'm not looking to make a big play today and I see the big majority of SBR posters are on the Magic. I am going Celtics, small at opening both pts and ML then I will consider the 2h. If Orlando wins, I will add substantially to the Celtics futures.

[laziie]

im going with the over here..

[talnted]

I just cannot see magic giving up both of these home games. then again I have been wrong before...

[cashman]

under

[fly fisher]

Thanks Snowball. Seems like some real sound advice. Right now, I have celtics at +7.5 and a small amount Celtics ML, but my gut just tells me that if Howard can create space and he gets some calls, hit a few threes, then Orlando can cover. But I like your strategy and will stay for now with what I have and adjust if need be in 2nd half. I think the first quarter will tell a lot on how this game will go. Thinking of taking Orlando Q1.

[suicidekings]

Orlando (series price) -110 (x12)
ORL 1Q -2.5 -105 (x5)

IMO, the Orlando series price @ -110 is a HUGE value play at the moment. Assuming MLs are relatively fair representations of fair lines, the implied probability of a -300 ML is about a 75% chance of winning. So the chance of Boston winning the first game was approximately 25%. Assuming the ML for Game 2 also closes around -300, then the odds of of the Celtics winning both games in Orlando is approximately 6-7%.

Orlando winning tonight means another correction to the series price heading into Boston, where Orlando won both games played this season, and will likely be available as a small ML dog.

[Boscoe]

I like the Magic here. Good luck!

[kmarinouofm]

exactly thats why you take the magic

yup books getting heavy action on boston yet the line is barely budding.. they want your boston money.. as far as the over under.. over 186 looks like a winner..