Refs/League leans tonight.. discuss...

[Snowball]

Seeing some angles in the Denver game.
Obviously Denver would be the fix, to move the series further and at home.
The historical edge however is actually on the Over.
This crew is a combined 42-24 Over when the line is over 205.
Still, the line is 214.5 so I would need a stat on +214.5 to be sure.

Bucks/Hawks: Bavetta leans against home favorites and for the under, but Davis and DeRosa are a combined wash on the total.. so far the only edge I see is to Atlanta.
Why: When the home team is favored by 5-9.5 pts, Davis is 10-1 home team.
DeRosa is 10-5 @ 5-9.5, yet Bavetta is 7-11. So we have 2/3 of the crew a combined 20-6 there, refs who know how to let a home team cover when they are under 10pt faves. Still, Atlanta is -9, only 1pt away from 10.

Let's think about the league approach. What does the league want.
Denver. Continue the Mountain Rivalry with Utah and sell more tix.
Keep the hope alive that Coach Karl could return for next series.
Atlanta. Joe Johnson free agent. Coach Mike Woodson is without a contract for next season, he will be canned if he loses this series.
Atlanta/Orlando a Southeast rivalry.
Home team as 5-9.5pt fave with this crew is combined 37-24. Salvatore is 9-9, without him the other two are a nice 28-15 @ 5-9.5.
That's pretty strong considering the league lean. Let's look at the home faves with these guys at 0-9.5. Combined 61-42.

I'm starting to think Denver, Atlanta, and Denver/Utah Over teased together..
or all separate ATS.
Another possibility is Denver ML, Atlanta ML, Yankees.
Yankees have lost 4/5 and have Sabathia @ Baltimore. They just lost by one run and are due for some serious runs.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_referees_3.html

thoughts and observations ?

[No coincidences]

Outstanding post, Snow, and I couldn't agree more with your analysis.

I'm sticking with the home faves big theme that developed last night (other than in the CHI/CLEV game). Not sure about totals -- I've been getting burned on those lately.

[JRswish]

it's the easiest moneymaker in basketball... game 5 home blowouts

[Snowball]

No coincidences, it's been mostly difficult to gauge outcomes in the 1st round series based on previous games within the existing series. As you know, results are taking wild swings in opposite directions. Look at these home records. I'm leaving out Cavs/Bulls, Celts/Heat and Magic/Cats because those series were not competitive and are over:
DEN 1-1
UTA 2-0
DAL 2-1
SAN 2-0
MIL 2-0
ATL 2-0
PHX 2-1
POR 2-1
OKC 2-0
LAL 3-0

a combined 20-4 Home advantage.

[lyon804]

Yes, I think you have something here snowball. Atlanta looks really juicy based on line and RLM for everybody that thinks Bucks +9 is a free lunch after Bucks handled them at home. Denver, should do the trick also is it would be humilating to lose at home for a team that had such high aspirations against a good Utah team that only has 3 regulars in the starting lineup. please.....

[No coincidences]

Again, a two-team, four-point tease with ATL and DEN seems to make sense.

[jmiezie]

good info thanks

[Snowball]

Milwaukee and Utah have no chance tonight.
I did a wide assortment of wagers on Denver, Atlanta and the Over in Denver/Utah.
ATS, teased, parlayed, moneyline. combinations.
Even have bets where I sold Atlanta to -10 (+106) and Denver to -8 (+106).
There is so much motivation for these teams, league interests, and refs in line..
i feel very confident in these bets.

Denver: home adv, Coach Karl saga, Carmelo calls pressure on Nene, Billups, league interests, refs like the over and home team.
Atlanta: league wants Atlanta/Orlando. Joe Johnson free agent. Jamal Crawford won the NBA 6th Man Award just yesterday. Coach Woodson set to lose his job if they don't take this series. Home adv. 2/3 ref crew adv.
Colossal home win disparity in all first round matchups.

[reppin_the_847]

See my post below

[reppin_the_847]

I appreciate your analysis on this greatly, and I plan on rolling with a conservative version of it. I'll parlay the Atlanta & Denver moneylines, and tease down the Over on the Utah & Denver game a few notches down to Over 211 most likely, and run with it. I can buy points like that on TheGreek. Unlike many others on this forum, your analysis is not based on pure emotion. Game 5 home teams have been tremendous as we saw yesterday with the exception of Cleveland.

Milwaukee and Utah have no chance tonight.
I did a wide assortment of wagers on Denver, Atlanta and the Over in Denver/Utah.
ATS, teased, parlayed, moneyline. combinations.
Even have bets where I sold Atlanta to -10 (+106) and Denver to -8 (+106).
There is so much motivation for these teams, league interests, and refs in line..
i feel very confident in these bets.

Denver: home adv, Coach Karl saga, Carmelo calls pressure on Nene, Billups, league interests, refs like the over and home team.
Atlanta: league wants Atlanta/Orlando. Joe Johnson free agent. Jamal Crawford won the NBA 6th Man Award just yesterday. Coach Woodson set to lose his job if they don't take this series. Home adv. 2/3 ref crew adv.
Colossal home win disparity in all first round matchups.

[Snowball]

Atlanta and Denver are so ripe.
So Ripe.

[uanl]

great analysis snowball..im riding the home teams tonight in a tease!

[terpkeg]

it's the easiest moneymaker in basketball... game 5 home blowouts

Anyone have any actually stats on this? I would tend to agree off hand.

However, yesterday I here Michael Kay blabbering on NY radio about how often baseball double headers end in a split. This seemed accurate to me as well as I had heard it before, so figured I would fade the winner of the Mets-Dodgers game. But then I actually researched it and found some records that indicating that over the past 8 years, Sweeps hit at about 55%.

So, always good to see numbers.

[Snowball]

Free Throws Made:
Atlanta: 13
Milw: 7

Free Throws Granted:
Atlanta: 17
Milw: 9

Fouls:
Atlanta: 12
Milw: 17

[Snowball]

what can we say.. Bavetta came through on the Under but Hawks were beyond help tonight.
Milwaukee got hot and Hawks were listless.. afraid to take shots, clueless on defense.

Going to play more on Denver to make up. One of these at least will come through.
Outside of a few dunks, Atlanta was just terrible tonight. Many NBA teams could have put away the Bucks when already up 10 points, so we were right on that, but they couldn't close it.

Off to hit Denver harder. -5,-6,-7.

[reppin_the_847]

After this crushing ATL loss, I've decided to take a break from sportsbetting. My only glimmer of hope is the fact that I put a good chunk of cash into the Los Angeles Lakers Western Conference Champions futures column a couple months ago. I'm still feeling pretty good about that, especially after the rude awakening / ass-whooping they just gave the Thunder @ the Staples Center.

[Snowball]

gl with that, reppin..

Denver and the Over hit.

but shame on the Hawks, total shame.. pathetic how they blew that lead.

[lyon804]

gl with that, reppin..

Denver and the Over hit.

but shame on the Hawks, total shame.. pathetic how they blew that lead.

you were spot on with Atlanta. What can you say? They shit the bed bro. Total dysfunctional team and poorly coached. They looked scared and undecided late and for the most part the Bucks had scrubs on the floor whipping them when it counted. Outside of Salmons none of the Bucks would start for Atlanta yet they beat Atlanta. That's why the Hawks will always be the Hawks. everytime somebody thinks they are taking the next step they prove everytime they are not.

[No coincidences]

you were spot on with Atlanta. What can you say? They shit the bed bro. Total dysfunctional team and poorly coached. They looked scared and undecided late and for the most part the Bucks had scrubs on the floor whipping them when it counted. Outside of Salmons none of the Bucks would start for Atlanta yet they beat Atlanta. That's why the Hawks will always be the Hawks. everytime somebody thinks they are taking the next step they prove everytime they are not.

Salmons has stalked a lot of my big bets for two years now. He seems to follow me around with daggers and a smile, sucking money from my account at will....

[lyon804]

Salmons has stalked a lot of my big bets for two years now. He seems to follow me around with daggers and a smile, sucking money from my account at will....

I should have followed my own advice the other day I was giving in Dexters thread about "coaches" Do you remember that one? It came home to roost tonite. Stiles team was well composed and ready to win the game late when it counted. Atlanta on the other hand looked liked they were trying to fukk a football. No leadership on Atlanta. No coaching. No gameplan. No idea how to close a game they were winning at home against inferior athletes.