NBA odds Favor Mavericks In Game 2
The Mavericks got a rare home cover in Game 1 against the Spurs with a 100-94 win as four-point favorites. The spread is about the same for tonight's Game 2 at American Airlins Center in Dallas. One battle to wach will Tim Duncan against Erick Dampier, with San Antonio ready to send the Mavs center to the free throw line at the drop of a hat. TNT has the tip at 9:30 p.m. following the Bobcats, Magic broadcast from Orlando.
What was that we were saying about home-court advantage?
The home team went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS during Game 1 of the conference quarterfinals, proving yet again the importance of playing in your own building during the first round of the NBA playoffs. Included among the winners: The Dallas Mavericks, who downed the San Antonio Spurs 100-94 on Sunday and cashed in as four-point home faves.
The betting odds for Wednesday’s rematch opened at Dallas -4, but the spread was down to -3½ at press time with consensus reports showing 78 percent support for the Mavericks.
Most of the favorites in Game 2 saw some embarrassing shrinkage in their odds as the market adjusted for the popularity of the zigzag theory. The idea behind the zigzag is that the losing team from Game 1 has something of a strategic advantage – similar to owning the “tempo” in chess, which means it’s your move.
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will adjust his game plan based on the results of the series opener. Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks don’t have the same room for improvement, especially after Dirk Nowitzki shot 12-of-14 and sank all 12 of his free throws on Sunday for a total of 36 points.
You can call it “regression to the mean” if you like, but there were some other unusual results from Game 1 that we shouldn’t expect to see again, like the Mavericks getting 34 free-throw attempts to just 14 for the Spurs, and Tim Duncan (24.79 PER) committing six turnovers. All this makes the zigzag a nice theory for the playoffs – in theory. The Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz both got to the pay window on Monday after coming up empty in their series openers. But Tuesday’s underdogs went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, and besides, whatever Popovich may be cooking up for Game 2, the Mavericks are still the more talented team, and it showed in Game 1.
Popovich has been tinkering with his lineup all year long, partly out of necessity due to injuries, and partly due to underwhelming performances from offseason acquisitions Richard Jefferson (13.18 PER) and Antonio McDyess (12.29 PER). Both players defend well; Jefferson finished the regular season with a plus-0.7 Roland Rating, while McDyess was at minus-2.2. But in Game 1, neither man could stop Nowitzki. Popovich threw a number of different defenders on Nowitzki, all to little effect.
That’s when Popovich decided to employ the old “Hack-A-Damp” strategy, fouling Mavericks center Erick Dampier (60.4 percent from the free-throw line) on three straight possessions during the third quarter, just to keep the ball out of Nowitzki’s hands. Dampier sank four of his six attempts, although he was just 5-of-12 for the day compared to 20-of-22 by the rest of the team. Popovich successfully used this strategy against Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns in the 2008 playoffs, beating the Suns three times at the AT&T Center to win their first-round series 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS). More hacking is in the forecast for Game 2.
This strategy doesn’t have to be limited to Dampier, either. The Mavericks are a much better team after the trade that brought Brendan Haywood (16.17 PER) over from the Washington Wizards along with Caron Butler (13.77 PER), who scored 22 points on Sunday with six rebounds and three steals. However, Haywood is also a bit wayward at the foul line, hitting just 61.9 percent of his freebies during his career and 57.5 percent since joining the Mavs. On Sunday, Haywood made good on both his free throws in a very efficient 18 minutes off the bench. Nice, but put him on the line more often and see what happens.
One other option for Popovich is to lean more heavily on point guard Tony Parker (16.49 PER), who played 34 minutes off the bench behind a gimpy George Hill (14.70 PER) in Game 1. Actually, this might not be an option; Hill is reportedly a game-time decision because of his sore ankle. Unless Parker can play 48 minutes, no zigzag theory is going to help the Spurs move the ball Wednesday night.
The Mavericks got a rare home cover in Game 1 against the Spurs with a 100-94 win as four-point favorites. The spread is about the same for tonight's Game 2 at American Airlins Center in Dallas. One battle to wach will Tim Duncan against Erick Dampier, with San Antonio ready to send the Mavs center to the free throw line at the drop of a hat. TNT has the tip at 9:30 p.m. following the Bobcats, Magic broadcast from Orlando.
What was that we were saying about home-court advantage?
The home team went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS during Game 1 of the conference quarterfinals, proving yet again the importance of playing in your own building during the first round of the NBA playoffs. Included among the winners: The Dallas Mavericks, who downed the San Antonio Spurs 100-94 on Sunday and cashed in as four-point home faves.
The betting odds for Wednesday’s rematch opened at Dallas -4, but the spread was down to -3½ at press time with consensus reports showing 78 percent support for the Mavericks.
Most of the favorites in Game 2 saw some embarrassing shrinkage in their odds as the market adjusted for the popularity of the zigzag theory. The idea behind the zigzag is that the losing team from Game 1 has something of a strategic advantage – similar to owning the “tempo” in chess, which means it’s your move.
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will adjust his game plan based on the results of the series opener. Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks don’t have the same room for improvement, especially after Dirk Nowitzki shot 12-of-14 and sank all 12 of his free throws on Sunday for a total of 36 points.
You can call it “regression to the mean” if you like, but there were some other unusual results from Game 1 that we shouldn’t expect to see again, like the Mavericks getting 34 free-throw attempts to just 14 for the Spurs, and Tim Duncan (24.79 PER) committing six turnovers. All this makes the zigzag a nice theory for the playoffs – in theory. The Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz both got to the pay window on Monday after coming up empty in their series openers. But Tuesday’s underdogs went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, and besides, whatever Popovich may be cooking up for Game 2, the Mavericks are still the more talented team, and it showed in Game 1.
Popovich has been tinkering with his lineup all year long, partly out of necessity due to injuries, and partly due to underwhelming performances from offseason acquisitions Richard Jefferson (13.18 PER) and Antonio McDyess (12.29 PER). Both players defend well; Jefferson finished the regular season with a plus-0.7 Roland Rating, while McDyess was at minus-2.2. But in Game 1, neither man could stop Nowitzki. Popovich threw a number of different defenders on Nowitzki, all to little effect.
That’s when Popovich decided to employ the old “Hack-A-Damp” strategy, fouling Mavericks center Erick Dampier (60.4 percent from the free-throw line) on three straight possessions during the third quarter, just to keep the ball out of Nowitzki’s hands. Dampier sank four of his six attempts, although he was just 5-of-12 for the day compared to 20-of-22 by the rest of the team. Popovich successfully used this strategy against Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns in the 2008 playoffs, beating the Suns three times at the AT&T Center to win their first-round series 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS). More hacking is in the forecast for Game 2.
This strategy doesn’t have to be limited to Dampier, either. The Mavericks are a much better team after the trade that brought Brendan Haywood (16.17 PER) over from the Washington Wizards along with Caron Butler (13.77 PER), who scored 22 points on Sunday with six rebounds and three steals. However, Haywood is also a bit wayward at the foul line, hitting just 61.9 percent of his freebies during his career and 57.5 percent since joining the Mavs. On Sunday, Haywood made good on both his free throws in a very efficient 18 minutes off the bench. Nice, but put him on the line more often and see what happens.
One other option for Popovich is to lean more heavily on point guard Tony Parker (16.49 PER), who played 34 minutes off the bench behind a gimpy George Hill (14.70 PER) in Game 1. Actually, this might not be an option; Hill is reportedly a game-time decision because of his sore ankle. Unless Parker can play 48 minutes, no zigzag theory is going to help the Spurs move the ball Wednesday night.