Sj55 nba playoff picks

[sweetjones55]

Goat Milk said he was just skeptical of 1st Quarter lines, that's all. He thinks they are like flipping quarters due to the short nature of them. I hit 60% this year though and you can't do that flipping quarters over 300+ plays.

[shock11]

nice picks

[sweetjones55]

The next very strong play I see is PHX 1H -1.5. The public is pounding the hell out of LA and LA ML and the line hasn't flinched. I don't trust Phoenix late but I do think that they will at least come out pumped and build an early lead at half, after that I can't tell you what will happen with the way LA has been closing out games. This play is that much stronger if the PHX line stays at -3 and doesn't react to the LA pounding.

[h3da]

I was thinking of taking suns handicap first half because they tend to fire up leading to half time.. Strong play suns first quarter or just lock?

[sweetjones55]

I was thinking of taking suns handicap first half because they tend to fire up leading to half time.. Strong play suns first quarter or just lock?

Lakers are the best 1st quarter team I have ever watched. I would stay away from PHX 1q. I think it will be very close in the 1Q and Suns pull away 2Q.

[h3da]

Lakers are the best 1st quarter team I have ever watched. I would stay away from PHX 1q. I think it will be very close in the 1Q and Suns pull away 2Q.

Yeah both games suns seem to fire up 2nd quarter and whenever they are at home they shoot 3 pointers especially well and move at a very fast pace... So you think I should take suns first half or just avoid and play 2n half

[sweetjones55]

Yeah both games suns seem to fire up 2nd quarter and whenever they are at home they shoot 3 pointers especially well and move at a very fast pace... So you think I should take suns first half or just avoid and play 2n half

I think the strongest play by far on the Suns/Lakers game is Suns 1H -1.5. I would take that one big.

[spal2811]

should i jump on suns -1.5 noe before it goes up to -2?

[h3da]

I think the strongest play by far on the Suns/Lakers game is Suns 1H -1.5. I would take that one big.

Thanks.. Unfortunately I only realized this website existed a bit too late when playoffs are almost over><''... Any leans towards boston orlando game? I think boston first half is a good play since they seem to dominate orlando in both first halves of last game and struggled 2nd half?

[rtx1125]

My picks for Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic:

Boston 1H -2 Locked

Boston 190.5 Under Locked

[sweetjones55]

Thanks.. Unfortunately I only realized this website existed a bit too late when playoffs are almost over><''... Any leans towards boston orlando game? I think boston first half is a good play since they seem to dominate orlando in both first halves of last game and struggled 2nd half?

I like the Boston 1H play. I think it's worth a small play. Boston has been dominant in the 1H all playoffs long. Do the numbers, I think they have won every 1H except for one against the Heat.

[jmanis25]

sounds good

[sweetjones55]

The Suns opened at -3 and just went to -2.5 yet the 1H opened at -1.5 and did not move like the game line. Instead they are now juicing the Suns 1H -1.5 -115 on 5Dimes. Suns 1H is the play

[Goat Milk]

The Suns opened at -3 and just went to -2.5 yet the 1H opened at -1.5 and did not move like the game line. Instead they are now juicing the Suns 1H -1.5 -115 on 5Dimes. Suns 1H is the play

I agree SJ. I'm one of the few cappers on this board on the Suns game 3. If the Lakers play defense the way they did in both games at home, they are in serious trouble.

[stefan084]

I agree SJ. I'm one of the few cappers on this board on the Suns game 3. If the Lakers play defense the way they did in both games at home, they are in serious trouble.

i might take the suns also but i'm more worried about their defense than LA's

[h3da]

My picks for Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic:

Boston 1H -2 Locked

Boston 190.5 Under Locked

I will be having same play as you. Good luck

[shock11]

tough picks

[sweetjones55]

We got a rare case in the Boston/Orlando game. There are three refs in the top 11 for OVERS. Salvatore is the 2nd best ref for OVERS, Spooner 4th best for OVERS, and Willards 11th for OVERS. All three refs average about 203.5 ppg.

The total opened up at 189.5 and went up to 190 despite the public pounding the UNDER at over 60%.

Orlando/Boston OVER 190 is the strongest play tonight.

[rtx1125]

We got a rare case in the Boston/Orlando game. There are three refs in the top 11 for OVERS. Salvatore is the 2nd best ref for OVERS, Spooner 4th best for OVERS, and Willards 11th for OVERS. All three refs average about 203.5 ppg.

The total opened up at 189.5 and went up to 190 despite the public pounding the UNDER at over 60%.

Orlando/Boston OVER 190 is the strongest play tonight.

SJ I hope you dont get upset if I disagree on that. I havent taken a look at the stats for the refs but I have taken a look at Orlando's games. They hardly go over 190. maybe we should factor in the avg ppg for orlando and boston before things are decided. I really hope you dont mind what I have said. Not trying to get on your bad side. But I do appreciate everything you have done =) So either way to SJ!

[trojanman]

My opinion is the refs have a lot to do with overs - stats don't lie and refs who trend to the over do so because they call everything and the teams go into the bonus early. These games are hard to watch with little flow but frustrating as heck if you bet the under. This is a physical series and if refs are calling it close this could become a free throw shooting contest.

I like the over bet with refs like Spooner and Salvatore.

Thx for the stats Sweet......over it is

[sweetjones55]

SJ I hope you dont get upset if I disagree on that. I havent taken a look at the stats for the refs but I have taken a look at Orlando's games. They hardly go over 190. maybe we should factor in the avg ppg for orlando and boston before things are decided. I really hope you dont mind what I have said. Not trying to get on your bad side. But I do appreciate everything you have done =) So either way to SJ!

It's all good, I don't mind at all when people disagree with my plays. It bothers me a bit when they just say I'm taking the UNDER and then not give an explanation though. But if they are trying to bring insight to the table and maybe make me look at a side or angle to the play that I may have not seen then it's fine by me.

I completely understand the averages and that if you look at past history in this series that you would HAVE to go UNDER. And that is why the public is all over the UNDER, which is rare by the way they are almost always on OVERS. But this is a RARE case of having three refs all favor the OVER HEAVILY. Also this is pretty much a do or die close out game for all intents and purposes. Orlando will foul down 10 with 50 seconds left. You are going to see a ton of free throws late in this game. Rajon Rondo gets excited at home too and I expect to see him running up and down a lot. I expect around 197 points, say 102-95.

Also don't forget that Vegas opened this line at 188.5. They aren't stupid, they are moving this total up to 190 for a reason. They want more money on the UNDER, take the OVER

[Goat Milk]

SJ I agree with the over because I'm going to be on the Magic.

The reason the public is all over the under is because the public is on Boston. Boston wins at home=unders.

[WiseGrumpy]

It's all good, I don't mind at all when people disagree with my plays. It bothers me a bit when they just say I'm taking the UNDER and then not give an explanation though. But if they are trying to bring insight to the table and maybe make me look at a side or angle to the play that I may have not seen then it's fine by me.

I completely understand the averages and that if you look at past history in this series that you would HAVE to go UNDER. And that is why the public is all over the UNDER, which is rare by the way they are almost always on OVERS. But this is a RARE case of having three refs all favor the OVER HEAVILY. Also this is pretty much a do or die close out game for all intents and purposes. Orlando will foul down 10 with 50 seconds left. You are going to see a ton of free throws late in this game. Rajon Rondo gets excited at home too and I expect to see him running up and down a lot. I expect around 197 points, say 102-95.

Also don't forget that Vegas opened this line at 188.5. They aren't stupid, they are moving this total up to 190 for a reason. They want more money on the UNDER, take the OVER

I guess you don't enter my thread (that's a shame), anyway, here is the post I have there:


UNDER is the ORL - BOS game.

Some facts:

Boston Vs Miaimi:

Game 1 - 161
Game 2 - 183
Game 3 - 198
Game 4 - 193
Game 5 - 182

Boston Vs Cavs (1stH):

Game 1 - 194
Game 2 - 190
Game 3 - 219
Game 4 - 184
Game 5 - 208
Game 6 - 179

Boston Vs ORL (1st H):

Game 1 - 180
Game 2 - 187

Boston Vs ORL (1st H regular season):

@ ORL - 161
@ BOS - 163
@ ORL - 190
@ BOS - 185

Almost all the games BOS had in this year's playoffs and ALL the games against ORL this season ended UNDER 190, the few that didn't were blow-outs which we WON'T have in this game.

ORL Vs CHA:

Game 1 - 187
Game 2 - 169
Game 3 - 176
Game 4 - 189

ORL Vs ATL (1stH):

Game 1 - 185
Game 2 - 210
Game 3 - 180
Game 4 - 182

Only ONE ORL game was over 190.

Looks pretty damn strong.

Anyway, I respect and like you picks and reasons, but today I disagree, one of us is right.

[No coincidences]

I almost never play overs -- especially in this series -- but IMHO, I agree over is the play here. Orlando is fighting for its playoff life tonight, and the last under was an absolute fluke.

[h3da]

I'm going to avoid over and under... Taking celtics-2.5 first half.. BOL

[sweetjones55]

I understand all of the history and stats. I know more than anyone that the UNDER has hit in most of Boston and Orlando's game lately. Today I think the OVER will hit though.

[sweetjones55]

I am starting to think that Boston is a very good play tonight as well. Most teams thusfar up 2-0 have done well in the 3rd game and this is a home game for Boston. What could Orlando do differently from game 1 and 2? I don't see Rashard Lewis or Matt Barnes breaking out of their slumps on the road. I think everyone on the Magic have relied all year long on teams doubling Howard and then getting open 3's and kicks to the corners but Boston doesn't have to double team. The Magic get NOTHING easy on Boston. Howard will get his fair share but I just don't see how Orlando can win. Boston has been so efficient lately, they aren't turning the ball over and get a ton of open shots on ball movement. No one is hogging the ball and everyone is just playing their role. Not to mention that I think Rivers is doing a great job coaching them right now.

[Wilforth]

I almost never play overs -- especially in this series -- but IMHO, I agree over is the play here. Orlando is fighting for its playoff life tonight, and the last under was an absolute fluke.

IDK about the o/u for tonight's game but the 1H goes UNDER.

[doctor_on_call]

I am starting to think that Boston is a very good play tonight as well. Most teams thusfar up 2-0 have done well in the 3rd game and this is a home game for Boston. What could Orlando do differently from game 1 and 2? I don't see Rashard Lewis or Matt Barnes breaking out of their slumps on the road. I think everyone on the Magic have relied all year long on teams doubling Howard and then getting open 3's and kicks to the corners but Boston doesn't have to double team. The Magic get NOTHING easy on Boston. Howard will get his fair share but I just don't see how Orlando can win. Boston has been so efficient lately, they aren't turning the ball over and get a ton of open shots on ball movement. No one is hogging the ball and everyone is just playing their role. Not to mention that I think Rivers is doing a great job coaching them right now.

i have bos -3.5. hope it hits.

[rtx1125]

Boston 1H -2 Locked WINNER!!!

[bionicmorning]

Orlando third quarter time?
what do you think about that?

[rtx1125]

Boston 2H +4 Locked

Boston 2H ML Locked

[sweetjones55]

I am starting to think that Boston is a very good play tonight as well. Most teams thusfar up 2-0 have done well in the 3rd game and this is a home game for Boston. What could Orlando do differently from game 1 and 2? I don't see Rashard Lewis or Matt Barnes breaking out of their slumps on the road. I think everyone on the Magic have relied all year long on teams doubling Howard and then getting open 3's and kicks to the corners but Boston doesn't have to double team. The Magic get NOTHING easy on Boston. Howard will get his fair share but I just don't see how Orlando can win. Boston has been so efficient lately, they aren't turning the ball over and get a ton of open shots on ball movement. No one is hogging the ball and everyone is just playing their role. Not to mention that I think Rivers is doing a great job coaching them right now.

Easy money, take Boston in game 4 also -whatever 1st quarter, half and game. I knew Boston would win but I really didn't think Orlando would play this bad and ruin the over call.

[rtx1125]

Boston 1H -2 Locked WINNER!!!!

Boston 190.5 Under Locked WINNER!!!!

Boston 2H +4 Locked WINNER!!!!

Boston 2H ML Locked WINNER!!!!

[foks8184]

nice!