Wow I'm clueless on what happenned tonight NBA

[PAULYPOKER]

The books have to foot roughly 82% of the bill in the 10 games after juice was subtracted on the spread side of the equation, although I could never figure out what the 82% actually is converted to the total $ amount , I do know this much its a 10 inch pipe up their ass for sure, out of the 11 wagers played books only won 2 of them and this was the Hawks&Bucks and these were the least one sided plays on the card! Now for those of you that do not know the sides always out number the ML&Totals play
around (2 to 1 IMO) unless on rare occasion you will see ML's trickle into the spread equation which in tonights case the Lakers ML trickled into one of the top plays for the night and it is one sided by 62% with no juice involved!!! I decided to construct this post because in all my years of sports investing I have never witnessed such public pounding as this,holy shit I am 6 fold. What the hell happened?

Below I am going to place actual numbers from a source that has been pretty reliable to me for the most part and maybe we as a group can figure this catastrophe out

1.Heat was 20% one sided -10% for juice = 10%=out of books pocket.
2.Bobcats was 18% one sided +10% juice = 28%=books profit
3.Bulls was 62% one sided-10% for juice = 52%=out of books
pocket.
4.Rockets was 52% one sided-10% for juice =42%=out of books pocket.
5.Memphis was 20% one sided-10% for juice = 10%=out of books pocket.
6.Suns was 50% one sided-10% for juice = 40%=out of books pocket.
7.Cavs was 26% one sided+10% for juice = 36%=books profit I seen this one and there was shaving and free paths to basket given at the end
8.Spurs was 20% one sided-10% for juice = 10%=out of books pocket.
9.Warriors was 62% one sided-10% for juice = 58%=out of books pocket.
10.Lakers was 38% one sided-10% for juice = 28%=out of books pocket.
11.Lakers ML was 62% one sided -0% for juice =62%=out of books pocket

No way can this be correct IMO cause this would put smaller books just about or out of business!!! So the real question is do books attack us poor clueless sports investors from all angles of the spectrum meaning no matter what kind of system you use they figure it in their equation to make it practically impossible for you to be profitable in the long run???????
After what I've witnessed tonight and week I really wonder

What do you think guys?

I have been highly profitable in the NBA for 2 months straight but this last week I have been getting hit pretty hard and I'm about to say fukkit

[NYSportsGuy210]

Unless you're a bookie why even bring this up? You're supposed to bet to beat the bookies, not play with them they aren't perfect.

It was interesting stats though.

[PAULYPOKER]

Unless you're a bookie why even bring this up? You're supposed to bet to beat the bookies, not play with them they aren't perfect. It was interesting stats though.

What side would you rather be on the winning side or the losing side

[Dr.Money]

Keep in mind this is from one night.
Books made a heck of a lot more over the course of this season, than they did this week. Nights like this are not often....but do happen from time to time.

This was for the most part, a winning week for joe public.

Im betting that tomorrows games (sat.3.april) will bend back in the bookie direction. Maybe even the sunday night games too.

I hope Im wrong.....I do.

But thanks for those stats. Pretty impressive.

[HoulihansTX]

Never judge a book in a day/week/months span.

A book is to be judged on how their year was.

[Dr.Money]

True.

[PAULYPOKER]

Keep in mind this is from one night. Books made a heck of a lot more over the course of this season, than they did this week. Nights like this are not often....but do happen from time to time. This was for the most part, a winning week for joe public. Im betting that tomorrows games (sat.3.april) will bend back in the bookie direction. Maybe even the sunday night games too. I hope Im wrong.....I do. But thanks for those stats. Pretty impressive.

Yes you are 100% correct but my point was to raise question on whether or not these Consensus providers Dr. the accuracy of the action just to keep us in the dark

[PAULYPOKER]

Never judge a book in a day/week/months span. A book is to be judged on how their year was.

Correct and I understand this completely but this just didn't happen tonight it has been going on since right after the final four games and I never ever seen it go on for this long in my life and I'm shell shocked

[HoulihansTX]

Yes you are 100% correct but my point was to raise question on whether or not these Consensus providers Dr. the accuracy of the action just to keep us in the dark

All the info that the books provide such as consensus %, # of bets, public action etc.. Is only there to attract/ lure more bettors. Nothing that the books tell us really gives bettors an edge. Books pass on all that info to give people the feeling that they are betting with an edge, but they are not. Books just want more action, and when people feel educated on a subject they are more likely to pursue it.

There are not many who bet with an edge, in other words make money long term. And those guys who do that never pass along info.

There are a few posters here who bet with an edge, but not many. I dont claim I do or dont, but the amount of money I bet, books could care less if I won every bet I make. At least I think

[PAULYPOKER]

All the info that the books provide such as consensus %, # of bets, public action etc.. Is only there to attract/ lure more bettors. Nothing that the books tell us really gives bettors an edge. Books pass on all that info to give people the feeling that they are betting with an edge, but they are not. Books just want more action, and when people feel educated on a subject they are more likely to pursue it. There are not many who bet with an edge, in other words make money long term. And those guys who do that never pass along info. There are a few posters here who bet with an edge, but not many. I dont claim I do or dont, but the amount of money I bet, books could care less if I won every bet I make. At least I think

Although I do not total rely on consensus it is a factor here is partly how I do it first I cap the games with my own lines then I look at the Oddsmakers lines then I finally look at the consensus if all 3 match up in my favor well than this is my play however since last week my method has hit a brick wall I'm big time

[PAULYPOKER]

And the only thing that could possibly be suspect is the consensus part of it which is beyond my control

[HoulihansTX]

Although I do not total rely on consensus it is a factor here is partly how I do it first I cap the games with my own lines then I look at the Oddsmakers lines then I finally look at the consensus if all 3 match up in my favor well than this is my play however since last week my method has hit a brick wall I'm big time

Until you figure out a way to bet with an edge. everything is pretty much 50/50. And that right were the books want us, b/c 50% is a losing endeavor on our end. They collect the juice.

I just rely on guts, and situational plays. The mind frame I take B4 looking at the lines is buy low, sell high.

I f'd that up tonight, b/c I sold the Lakers low. When they are -4.5/ ML -200 and they are home. That should mean an auto play. We wont see a line like that until the Finals.

[PAULYPOKER]

Until you figure out a way to bet with an edge. everything is pretty much 50/50. And that right were the books want us, b/c 50% is a losing endeavor on our end. They collect the juice. I just rely on guts, and situational plays. The mind frame I take B4 looking at the lines is buy low, sell high. I f'd that up tonight, b/c I sold the Lakers low. When they are -4.5/ ML -200 and they are home. That should mean an auto play. We wont see a line like that until the Finals.

Here is a rule that I think we should all follow first and last couple weeks of regular season is consistently throughout history F.U.B.A.R. in all sports and should be avoided at all cost for these facts alone then we wouldn't have to create these back to the drawing board threads

[suicidekings]

The percentages you're quoting represent the fraction of bets placed on a particular side. The amount of money on each side may or may not correspond to them. Books adjust the line based on the volume of money on each side, not the number of bets. This could mean that if the betting is 75/25 on the two sides, that the bets on the 25% side are 3x as large on average as the bets on the 75% side, giving the book no incentive to move the line.

Not true 100% of the time, but the books didn't get killed that badly tonight.