Portland +5

[No coincidences]

no coin? whats the size of your play?

i only ask because you are so adamant about portland and have been on them for days now. are we talking 50x your normal play or 2x?

i just hate it when people claim things (not accusing you) after the fact. but if it lost ("oh, i only lost 1x")......that irks me. goes on waaaay too much here.

7x a normal play for me.

[Wilforth]

PORTLAND MONEYLINE ALL IN!!

Here comes one all-in post!

[jnickell100]

Guys, Thanks for the comments, points etc.. I wrote this because I had some time and thought it was interesting to point out what I consider a key factor in tonites game.. Line origination and line movement.. I respect the game and respect bookmakers. I also respect sharps. It is very interesting the line opening of Denver -4. Denver, has handled Portland over there last 3 games at home and all 3 games would have covered this number. Just as recent as last month Denver was -7 at home to Portland and covered the number and Portland was in seemingly a better spot at the moment in they are now. Since then Portland has played better and Denver has played worse. Portland comes into this game with no rest playing in Death Valley and bookmakers only opened it at -4?? Well, maybe I am reading too much into that I don't know. I am interested to see what the late movements in the line suggest. I don't buy the notion that Portland is satisfied because they clinched a playoff spot. I don't think them playing in the playoffs was ever a question with them this season. Denver is 2-1 S/U against Portland this year and if they win tonite they will be 3-1 S/U, but also keep in mind this is the NBA and Denver can win tonite and still not cover by 6 pts. If you play Portland, Denver must win by 6 for you to lose the game. I also wouldn't suggest doubling down on Portland or any other team for that manner. This is the NBA were shit happens. Denver could win tonite by 20+pts or straight up lose the game and to be honest neither outcome will surprise me or get my blood pressure up. All, in all with Denver's prolonged struggles on the road that carried over from home and Portlands recent play I expect a good game tonite that could go either way in the end so at this time I am leaning on Portland + the points, but that could all change between now and then as I want to see were the books are leaning as this game is about to tip.

Lyon i respect your opinion here but you are contradicting yourself. You say that the opening line is interesting to you because of the past games between denver and portland which all would have covered this opening line. Then you state that Portland has been playing well and denver has been playing bad lately, which both are obviously true. I think you kinda asnwer your own question here. The opening line is not going to be as high because of how well portland has been playing and how bad denver has been playing.

[MrTwiz]

Still no george karl correct?

[acarmelo1]

I say Denver for just 2 simple reasons

1) Portland played yesterday and surpassed the 100 points mark, their players must be tired and in top of that they have to travel all the way to denver.

2)Denver is well rested, they are at home. The fans are supporting them.

Portland is a good team but you have to see the big picture

IF both teams were well rested with no Back 2 Back games then it will be harder for me to choose

Good Luck ALL

[Fishballs]

with you lyon on Port +5.5

[Fasttrack]

Liking Portland plus the points as well.

[cala56]

Im on portland but. I think they aré tire

[tavinator13]

Well, there is plenty of interest in this game already and the early action is a little more on Denver than Portland and the line has steamed up to Denver -5.. This is an interesting game that I am leaning Portland at the moment on. The last time these two teams played one another was 03/07/2010 and Portland was a 7 point pup on the road to Denver. I lost that nite taking Portland.as Portland lost by 12 points and actually looked sluggish that game. Portland went into that game on 4 days rest and i thought it would be an advantage for them but it turned out it wasn't. If anybody watched the game remembers that they lost by 12 pts but the game was actually much closer than the final score indicated. Portland made some runs in that game and got within single digits late, but Denver pulled away with some late 3's by Afflalo and Smith. I think the line that bookmakers set is real telling considering that Portland has lost to Denver@ Denver by totals of 8,16,12 respectively there last 3 meeting at the Pepsi Center and the line is only set at Denver -4-4.5 with Portland playing back to back on the road now That tells me something about Denver especially the way they have been playing with the absence of K.Martin and head coach George Karl and add to it that Portland is the best team in the NBA playing 0 days rest. Me, personally I reccomend waiting on this game if you are leaning Portland. I think the line is solid at Denver -5 and will hold until game time. Watch to see what the late money does on this game. If the the Big shops lean Portland late I know I will be jumping on.

Solid analysis...

Portland are now in the playoffs. I doubt they'll play at the same level they've played their last few games. Methinks Denver will get out of their funk tonight. BTW, Denver play very well at home against good teams.

You think they wanna end up in 8th playing the lakeshow 1st round? they will be motivated as ever trust me

[Wilforth]

One thing I know about many NBA teams is that when you expect so much from them, they give so little. I think we'll see that tonight in the Denver game. Either of the 2 teams may not show up. That's why I said somewhere that there're only 2 picks here:

Portland ML
Denver -5.

This game will be decided by more than 5 points!

Whatever your pick, GL.

[TheBet]

Portland +5 is the play!!

[lyon804]

Anybody that played Portland +5 +5.5 should think about taking Denver ML for the 2H. Juice is around -200 or so but they will win the game in the 2H. It's a hedge on your game bet with the opportunity to hit both sides of the game.

[lyon804]

If I am wrong and Denver was too lose it would be worth a good laugh to watch them bastards lose another game, but personally I don't see Denver losing tonite.. The late 2Q run by Portland is a gift imo to make the Denver 2H ML bet and if you played Portland game line no way you can lose both bets, but possible to win both.

[t-wizzle]

Couldn't agree more Lyon

[darkenergy]

How about taking Portland -1 +185?
Entire Denver team are playing with no motivation in the last 8-9 games or so, and Dantley always have a LOST look.
Everyone seem to think Portland will run out of gas in 2H.....is scary to me.

[acarmelo1]

Told you so
Portland guys were really tired. They are good, but just tired

[tmorton]

Sorry... My bad... they won by seventeen! If I just bet Denver games I would do ok but I just can't get myself to do it.