Thursday: Portland + whatever at Denver

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Thursday: Portland + whatever at Denver
    Take it, run, and never look back. I know the Nuggets will be favored, but they're really struggling right now (obviously) and in their first game back from a road trip, they're going to be big-time fade material.

    Grab the points with confidence, and sprinkle a little on the ML.
  • beerman2619
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-24-09
    • 7752

    #2
    Great post couldn't agree more.
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    • PAULYPOKER
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-06-08
      • 36581

      #3
      I hate to use this but fukk it Denver sucks Portland ML is a
      Comment
      • frostno98
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-11-07
        • 9769

        #4
        I like my odds with Denver at home. They ain't 30-6 at home for no freaking reason. It will be Lawson 2nd game, and he'll be a huge contributor at home. Plus George Karl will be back. He's a huge upgrade, since Adrian Dantley has no idea when to call timeouts and stop the other team from gaining momentum.
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        • migz
          SBR MVP
          • 02-11-10
          • 1160

          #5
          I;m afraid DEN might win this time and cover...
          Comment
          • syn^
            SBR Sharp
            • 03-08-10
            • 360

            #6
            You'd be crazy to bet against the nuggets at home, but you would also be crazy for betting on denver right now period... im staying away from this one.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by frostno98
              I like my odds with Denver at home. They ain't 30-6 at home for no freaking reason. It will be Lawson 2nd game, and he'll be a huge contributor at home. Plus George Karl will be back. He's a huge upgrade, since Adrian Dantley has no idea when to call timeouts and stop the other team from gaining momentum.
              Karl will be back for sure?
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              • frostno98
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-11-07
                • 9769

                #8
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                Karl will be back for sure?
                Actually Denver Post just reported he won't be back no earlier than mid April. Hopefully the Nugz will be favored by 5 or less points. I still like how this teams and Jr Smith catches fire at home. That with then itself makes it dangerous to go against the Nugz at home for me.
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                • tavinator13
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 02-16-10
                  • 383

                  #9
                  Originally posted by frostno98

                  Actually Denver Post just reported he won't be back no earlier than mid April. Hopefully the Nugz will be favored by 5 or less points. I still like how this teams and Jr Smith catches fire at home. That with then itself makes it dangerous to go against the Nugz at home for me.
                  Portland is 13-3 their last 16 games, just won two in a row B2B on the road, and this will be Denver's first home game after their road trip...trust me the line will be 5 or less.
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                  • Goat Milk
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 03-24-10
                    • 25850

                    #10
                    Billups vs. Andre Miller the Key matchup here. Denver will win this game. You have to love Aaron Affallo on Brandon Roy. He really should be 2nd or 3rd team all defense this year. Batum= no chance against Carmello.
                    Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
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                    • PAULYPOKER
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-06-08
                      • 36581

                      #11
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                      • t-wizzle
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-18-09
                        • 38099

                        #12
                        Be careful on this play...
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                        • letitburn
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 01-13-10
                          • 263

                          #13
                          good luck
                          Comment
                          • Broncos9798
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-02-08
                            • 236

                            #14
                            Two days rest and a small line(which we dont know yet). If the nuggets are -6 or or less im going huge on them(cause im in vegas)
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #15
                              Bump.

                              I'm taking both the road teams and the points Thursday.

                              Magic/Blazers for me.
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                My hope is that it's +5/5.5 by gametime.
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                                • PAULYPOKER
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-06-08
                                  • 36581

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                  For jinx purposes this was only a joke in my previous post
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                                  • mundane
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-25-08
                                    • 3592

                                    #18
                                    portland ats 0 day rest = 14-3
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by mundane
                                      portland ats 0 day rest = 14-3
                                      Yep, saw that too.

                                      Now my only hope is that the public pounds Denver. They've been struggling lately so some may be leery, but I'm still predicting squares will see that small number in Denver and be drooling all over it.
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                                      • PAULYPOKER
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-06-08
                                        • 36581

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                        Yep, saw that too. Now my only hope is that the public pounds Denver. They've been struggling lately so some may be leery, but I'm still predicting squares will see that small number in Denver and be drooling all over it.
                                        Public is on Denver at 52% right now which isn't looking good for this cause the public always bets early by majority
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                          Public is on Denver at 52% right now which isn't looking good for this cause the public always bets early by majority
                                          Yeah, Portland's hot lately and Denver's ice-cold. Unfortunately, that will probably keep the public around 50-50. Good news, though: that means any significant line movement you see is pointing to the right play.
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                                          • PAULYPOKER
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-06-08
                                            • 36581

                                            #22
                                            However most of the $ tomorrow will be tied up in the NCAA B.Ball meaning NBA will be petty cash compared to this fact
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                                            • HotStreak
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-12-09
                                              • 3235

                                              #23
                                              Teams on the second leg of a back to back, coming into Denver do not fair well. Denver for me!
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by HotStreak
                                                Teams on the second leg of a back to back, coming into Denver do not fair well. Denver for me!
                                                New Orleans and Milwaukee are the last two that come to mind. Oh wait a minute -- the Hornets covered and the Bucks won SU.
                                                Comment
                                                • suicidekings
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                  • 9962

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                  Public is on Denver at 52% right now which isn't looking good for this cause the public always bets early by majority
                                                  What?

                                                  Public bets on overnight lines are meaningless. The bets that matter are the early ones, within a couple of hours of the line's release, and the late ones, in the last hour or so before tip-off. I expect this game to be balanced as DEN -4.5 is just about right for these teams under normal circumstances.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                    • 36581

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                    What? Public bets on overnight lines are meaningless. The bets that matter are the early ones, within a couple of hours of the line's release, and the late ones, in the last hour or so before tip-off. I expect this game to be balanced as DEN -4.5 is just about right for these teams under normal circumstances.
                                                    No need to argue you believe what you believe and I do the same
                                                    Comment
                                                    • art_pogi
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 01-25-10
                                                      • 123

                                                      #27
                                                      hard play...denver is a strong team but playing like a crap lately...i will go to ptb lightly...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • lyon804
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-02-09
                                                        • 6526

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                        What?

                                                        Public bets on overnight lines are meaningless. The bets that matter are the early ones, within a couple of hours of the line's release, and the late ones, in the last hour or so before tip-off. I expect this game to be balanced as DEN -4.5 is just about right for these teams under normal circumstances.

                                                        LOL!!! I was wandering the same damn thing and thinking the public doesn't even bet early lines. The real joe blow action comes in around 5-6pm EST. Right when joe gets off work Joe is sleeping right now and doesn't even know who is playing tommorow.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mundane
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-25-08
                                                          • 3592

                                                          #29
                                                          im joe.. and yes im about to hit the bed! goodnight!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jive
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-10-10
                                                            • 1405

                                                            #30
                                                            Normally you fade teams on their first game back after a long road trip, of course. But this is a desperate game for Denver. They are looking at sliding all the way down to the 5th spot in the West, meaning no home court advantage in the first round and the Lakers waiting in the 2nd round if they get that far. This is no a typical first game back, IMO.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • PAULYPOKER
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-06-08
                                                              • 36581

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Jive
                                                              Normally you fade teams on their first game back after a long road trip, of course. But this is a desperate game for Denver. They are looking at sliding all the way down to the 5th spot in the West, meaning no home court advantage in the first round and the Lakers waiting in the 2nd round if they get that far. This is no a typical first game back, IMO.
                                                              Nevermind I got side tracked time to go to bed
                                                              Comment
                                                              • tavinator13
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 02-16-10
                                                                • 383

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Jive
                                                                Normally you fade teams on their first game back after a long road trip, of course. But this is a desperate game for Denver. They are looking at sliding all the way down to the 5th spot in the West, meaning no home court advantage in the first round and the Lakers waiting in the 2nd round if they get that far. This is no a typical first game back, IMO.
                                                                Haven't we been saying dever is desperate for like the last however many games? IF they couldn't show up for Dallas who they're jockeying for playoff spots with then why would you believe they'd show up for this one with such desperation?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Lakers714
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-17-09
                                                                  • 4671

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by tavinator13
                                                                  Haven't we been saying dever is desperate for like the last however many games? IF they couldn't show up for Dallas who they're jockeying for playoff spots with then why would you believe they'd show up for this one with such desperation?
                                                                  Den is an entirely different team at home compared to on the road. I don't have a lean for the game yet but just some info that should be STRONGLY considered before choosing a side.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tavinator13
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 02-16-10
                                                                    • 383

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Lakers714
                                                                    Den is an entirely different team at home compared to on the road. I don't have a lean for the game yet but just some info that should be STRONGLY considered before choosing a side.
                                                                    true, but I thought this whole meltdown started at home. To be honest I think they are a different team with Kmart and Karl , and I think they will struggle until they get them back.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Lakers714
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-17-09
                                                                      • 4671

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I agree den is not the same without KMart and Karl, but they might be getting a blazers team at the perfect spot tomorrow. The blazers will be on a B2B going into the altitude. I'm pretty sure Den will win, just don't know if they cover.
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