Mavs BIG!

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  • ATX
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 06-02-09
    • 503

    #1
    Mavs BIG!
    Tonight at American Airlines Center is the biggest Dallas Mavericks' game of the season. In the coming weeks, there will be plenty more. Fighting for the NBA Western Conference's No. 2 seed and a possible sidestep of the Los Angeles Lakers until the conference finals, the Mavs host the Denver Nuggets at 7:30 p.m. With a win, the Mavs would win the season series and own the tiebreaker for seeding in the playoffs.
    With a loss, Dallas would have about as clear a view of 8th place as 3rd. Yes, it's that jammed.
    On Saturday night Roddy Beaubois stuck another feather in his snappy rookie cap by hitting 9 of 11 3-pointers and scoring 40 points in a blowout of the Golden State Warriors. It was the second-most points ever scored by a Mavs' rookie - behind only Mark Aguirre's 42 back in 1980 - and an important win in a race that has the Mavs at 48-25, just ahead of the Nuggets (48-26), Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns. The Portland Trail Blazers, in 8th, are just 3 1/2 games back with nine to play.
    With little chance of catching the defending NBA champions for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, there's a tight race shaping up for second place.
    The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets conclude their regular-season series Monday in the teams' first matchup in Texas since last season's conference semifinals.Neither club is playing its best right now. The Mavericks (48-25) have dropped four of seven to fall six games behind the reigning champion Los Angeles Lakers for the top spot in the West, but the Nuggets (48-26) are in a worse slump with four losses in their last five contests.Thanks to Denver's woes, the Southwest Division-leading Mavericks moved one-half game ahead of the Nuggets for the No. 2 seed over the weekend."Every matchup we have is going to be big," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told NBA.com following his club's 111-90 victory Saturday at Golden State. "Fortunately, we didn't have to run anybody's minutes up huge tonight which bodes well for Monday, but Denver's a terrific team coming in and we're going to have to be ready and play well."Carlisle's club would benefit from improved play from Dirk Nowitzki, who had 13 points Saturday.Thirty-one points shy of passing Bob Pettit (20,880) for 28th all-time, Nowitzki will try to avoid scoring fewer than 20 in five straight games for the first time since a six-game stretch Nov. 8-15, 2000.Jason Kidd had 11 assists against the Warriors, but went scoreless and missed all five of his field-goal attempts. Rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois helped pick up the slack, notching career highs of 40 points and nine 3-pointers made.An encore from Beaubois could help the Mavericks get back on track and win consecutive games for the first time since March 10 -- the final contest of their season-high 13-game winning streak."We're trying to get the highest seed we can, hopefully let it all out there the last 10 games," Nowitzki said. "We have a big game Monday with Denver. They're right there with us."That's because the Nuggets aren't playing well, either. Denver fell to 1/3 on its five-game road trip after Sunday's 103-97 loss at Southeast Division-leading Orlando. The loss not only dropped the Nuggets behind the Mavs, but also into a tie with Utah for the Northwest lead. Phoenix lurks one-half game further back."I don't think that it's cause for concern," said Carmelo Anthony, who had 26 points Sunday but none in the fourth quarter. "It's just that it's happening right now, the last nine or 10 games of the season. But I don't think anybody on our team should be concerned about anything."A Denver loss Monday, coupled with a Jazz victory over the New York Knicks, would give Utah sole possession of the division lead for the first time this season."We haven't been playing well," Nuggets interim coach Adrian Dantley said. "You're going to go through stretches like that during the year and we've just got to come back."If Dantley's club can come back and beat the Mavericks on Monday, it will win this season series for the third straight year. The Nuggets and Mavs have split two meetings in Denver.This will be the Mavericks' first home game against the Nuggets since a memorable 119-117 victory May 11 in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. Anthony scored 41 points in that matchup, but Nowitzki countered with 44 to help Dallas avoid a sweep.Denver went on to eliminate the Mavs in five games despite the efforts of Nowitzki, who averaged 34.4 points and shot 53.4 percent in the series.
    I think the Mavs cover the 5 going away, but I might hit the ML quite a bit harder.
  • SmackdownV
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-14-09
    • 5918

    #2
    And.....

    That's what the BOOK WANT'S you to think......

    Dallas is a TRAP with a CAPITAL T....

    Ever notice how the Nuggets show up when it's time to SHOW UP.......
    Comment
    • ATX
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 06-02-09
      • 503

      #3
      BRANDON LANG

      5 Dime - Dallas Mavericks -5
      gotdamnit!

      Denver 6-11-2 ATS on 0 days
      Mavs 8-27-1 ATS at home
      Denver on 3rd in 4 and 5th in 7 all on road and off an East coast swing
      Comment
      • ATX
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 06-02-09
        • 503

        #4
        Originally posted by SmackdownV
        And.....

        That's what the BOOK WANT'S you to think......

        Dallas is a TRAP with a CAPITAL T....

        Ever notice how the Nuggets show up when it's time to SHOW UP.......
        public is on Nuggets fyi. this should be a blowout.
        Comment
        • lakerboy
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-02-09
          • 94379

          #5
          Lots of people on this site are on Denver
          Comment
          • necro
            SBR MVP
            • 06-07-09
            • 1633

            #6
            Dallas ML should be easy
            Comment
            • SmackdownV
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 04-14-09
              • 5918

              #7
              Lake & ATX....I JUST noticed that.......I agree....Denver might be the SQUARE play today....

              What I am confused about is the over/under 209.5

              The TREND is that these two play OVER (At 210 or less) the past 7 meetings or so.......

              I am wondering if THAT is the SQUARE play????? Why is EVERYONE on the UNDER????? Dallas had a days rest.....and it's not like the Nuggets played very hard last night.........

              I think the UNDER is the TRAP now that I think about it.........

              I think this game gets to 215 easy tonight......
              Comment
              • timdu82
                Restricted User
                • 03-11-10
                • 64

                #8
                Mavs will come out strong today
                Comment
                • ATX
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 06-02-09
                  • 503

                  #9
                  Originally posted by lakerboy
                  Lots of people on this site are on Denver
                  and understandably...

                  I welcome conjecture. Mavs are choke artists FOR SURE. just not today. I see this game similarly to 4/9/09 when the Nuggets visited LA. the 4th q might look like 5/23/09 in that epic game 3 fold.

                  since around 2/21 the Nuggets have been a somewhat average team...those wins at LA and Cleveland were big before that. last night Carmelo carried the team. this team at this time of year will most likely be gassed. I think this is a high percentage play but I definitely do not mind dissenting opinions while I play some poker.
                  Comment
                  • BatemanPatrickl
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 06-21-07
                    • 18772

                    #10
                    Good to see you around ATX. Best of luck with your plays.
                    Comment
                    • lakerboy
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-02-09
                      • 94379

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ATX
                      and understandably...

                      I welcome conjecture. Mavs are choke artists FOR SURE. just not today. I see this game similarly to 4/9/09 when the Nuggets visited LA. the 4th q might look like 5/23/09 in that epic game 3 fold.

                      since around 2/21 the Nuggets have been a somewhat average team...those wins at LA and Cleveland were big before that. last night Carmelo carried the team. this team at this time of year will most likely be gassed. I think this is a high percentage play but I definitely do not mind dissenting opinions while I play some poker.

                      What i am trying to say is that your play might be the way to go. When most people are one play here it usually loses.
                      Comment
                      • ATX
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 06-02-09
                        • 503

                        #12
                        Originally posted by SmackdownV
                        Lake & ATX....I JUST noticed that.......I agree....Denver might be the SQUARE play today....

                        What I am confused about is the over/under 209.5

                        The TREND is that these two play OVER (At 210 or less) the past 7 meetings or so.......

                        I am wondering if THAT is the SQUARE play????? Why is EVERYONE on the UNDER????? Dallas had a days rest.....and it's not like the Nuggets played very hard last night.........

                        I think the UNDER is the TRAP now that I think about it.........

                        I think this game gets to 215 easy tonight......
                        I will be looking hard at the 2nd half/4th q under if this game goes the way I think it does. I don't like the total that much because I have this feeling that Denver is fatigued and doesn't play great defense tonight and the Mavs might try to give Denver a little payback for that 36 point loss in February.

                        I like the Charlotte/Toronto under 196, but I haven't figured out exactly what I'm doing with that game.
                        Comment
                        • shoebox
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-26-08
                          • 5710

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ATX
                          public is on Nuggets fyi. this should be a blowout.

                          where is the public all over the nuggets
                          Get your info right before saying shit lke this
                          Comment
                          • dimon
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-14-09
                            • 1159

                            #14
                            Den 61% Dal 39%
                            Comment
                            • ATX
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 06-02-09
                              • 503

                              #15
                              Originally posted by lakerboy
                              What i am trying to say is that your play might be the way to go. When most people are one play here it usually loses.
                              yeah, I know that school of thought very well. I was a student at the J2 Institute of Fading. this hasn't been the best NBA year as far as being anti-public, but it is one thing that I always look at. I underbet if anything, I like to have a good time, and I'm having some beers and playing some poker so I'm probably gonna be good and drunk in about 24 minutes so when I say this is a LOCK that just means that I'm betting around 2.2 to 3.0% of my roll on this game instead of 1.1 to 1.5%

                              this isn't the same category of LOCK as the OU/BYU under
                              Comment
                              • shoebox
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-26-08
                                • 5710

                                #16
                                Originally posted by dimon
                                Den 61% Dal 39%
                                thats not where you should be getting your info from, that only pulls from 5 dimes I believe.
                                Comment
                                • shoebox
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-26-08
                                  • 5710

                                  #17
                                  Its 57% 43% with a proper line movement adjusted

                                  A public bet would be 81% LA 19% hornets
                                  Comment
                                  • ATX
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 06-02-09
                                    • 503

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by shoebox
                                    where is the public all over the nuggets
                                    Get your info right before saying shit lke this
                                    and...60% on a ML of avg +185?

                                    that's not even money

                                    public is and will be on the Nuggets this evening.

                                    my definition of the public is "gamblers that are not +EV bettors", the actual percentages that are available from consensus sites are part of that equation, but not exactly who I'm talking about if you catch my drift. nice to see you around, hope I can teach you some stuff.
                                    Comment
                                    • shoebox
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-26-08
                                      • 5710

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ATX
                                      and...60% on a ML of avg +185?

                                      that's not even money

                                      public is and will be on the Nuggets this evening.

                                      my definition of the public is "gamblers that are not +EV bettors", the actual percentages that are available from consensus sites are part of that equation, but not exactly who I'm talking about if you catch my drift. nice to see you around, hope I can teach you some stuff.

                                      thank god your hear to teach me this stuff chief
                                      Comment
                                      • ATX
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-02-09
                                        • 503

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by shoebox
                                        thank god your hear to teach me this stuff chief
                                        no prob. I felt bad for you getting run off from MW and EOG and stuff.
                                        Comment
                                        • stitchez
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 03-08-10
                                          • 147

                                          #21
                                          Im with you ATX
                                          Comment
                                          • ATX
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 06-02-09
                                            • 503

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stitchez
                                            Im with you ATX
                                            I'm more interested in arguments FOR Denver, but I gave you a hard-earned point because it looks like you could use one. just please don't spend it on deuces wild video poker here because that game is rigged.
                                            Comment
                                            • peeiempee
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-21-09
                                              • 2750

                                              #23
                                              Denver will cover BIG on Denver
                                              Comment
                                              • uanl
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 10-10-09
                                                • 825

                                                #24
                                                im on the mavs here..but if you want an argument FOR Denver, this is what i can say...denver is a much more physical team than the mavericks, dirk hasnt scored over 20 points in something like 4 or 5 straight games...its a BIG game and the mavs usually dont pull out a W in big games..Denver has one of the best scorers in the game in carmelo..and terry hasnt been himself since he started using that mask, and just add the fact that the mavs just dont cover at home..sure u can say that denver doesnt play well on the road, but denver is still one of the best teams in the league and dallas doesnt cover at home whether they play a good team or a bad team....
                                                Comment
                                                • ATX
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 06-02-09
                                                  • 503

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by peeiempee
                                                  Denver will cover BIG on Denver
                                                  actually during practice they held an intra-squad scrimmage and the game ended in a tie. opening line was Shirts pk/ Skins pk and didn't move so not exactly a cover but at least you got the push.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mehow
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 698

                                                    #26
                                                    for me:
                                                    lal -6
                                                    dal -5
                                                    nets +9
                                                    char -8,5
                                                    Comment
                                                    • thebestthereis
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-01-09
                                                      • 11459

                                                      #27
                                                      horrific scheduling spot for denver playing last game road trip, not a profitable play even though dallas is just as horrific at home this year
                                                      Comment
                                                      • suicidekings
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                        • 9962

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ATX

                                                        actually during practice they held an intra-squad scrimmage and the game ended in a tie. opening line was Shirts pk/ Skins pk and didn't move so not exactly a cover but at least you got the push.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • phenomenon
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-11-10
                                                          • 3227

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by mehow
                                                          for me:
                                                          lal -6
                                                          dal -5
                                                          nets +9
                                                          char -8,5
                                                          I am with u except char -8,5 dal -5 (I thought it is not good -8,5 for char . and also dallas , I ll play over 210,5 for dallas what ya think ?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • CashMoney27
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 03-15-10
                                                            • 253

                                                            #30
                                                            im with u atx the mavs are not loosing this one.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bobspicks
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                              • 386

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by peeiempee
                                                              Denver will cover BIG on Denver
                                                              WTF
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jinkh82
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 03-26-09
                                                                • 174

                                                                #32
                                                                denver should be the play here. i don't see denver loosing 8 in a row ats. good luck guys
                                                                Comment
                                                                • philosopher876
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 12-19-09
                                                                  • 98

                                                                  #33
                                                                  i'm going huge with the denver here!
                                                                  sbr
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ATX
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 06-02-09
                                                                    • 503

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by uanl
                                                                    im on the mavs here..but if you want an argument FOR Denver, this is what i can say...denver is a much more physical team than the mavericks, dirk hasnt scored over 20 points in something like 4 or 5 straight games...its a BIG game and the mavs usually dont pull out a W in big games..Denver has one of the best scorers in the game in carmelo..and terry hasnt been himself since he started using that mask, and just add the fact that the mavs just dont cover at home..sure u can say that denver doesnt play well on the road, but denver is still one of the best teams in the league and dallas doesnt cover at home whether they play a good team or a bad team....
                                                                    one thing that I like for tonight: yesterday Denver got to the line only 11 times and were called for 21 fouls. that tends to be a sign that a team is tired. Dallas only got to the line 10 times against GS but that game was pretty much over in the 2nd quarter. Denver had to expend a lot of energy in the 4th against Toronto 2 games ago to get the W there. I had Toronto plus the points for quite a bit, and I had Portland -3' over Dallas for a very big bet, and that 2nd half under...not that it has much bearing on this game, I do feel like I have a better than average read on these two teams right now for this game. I'm not particularly fond of Pinnacle dropping the ML to -205 and then to -195 recently, although the public is coming in on Denver closer to 65% now. this is the range I usually do very well with.

                                                                    the problem with Charlotte is they shot over 55% last game. I am making up my mind if I want to take the full game under or wait until the half for the 2h under. maybe both.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mehow
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                                      • 698

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by phenomenon
                                                                      I am with u except char -8,5 dal -5 (I thought it is not good -8,5 for char . and also dallas , I ll play over 210,5 for dallas what ya think ?
                                                                      i don't play totals, charlotte line is fine for me, toronto is b2b, here is last for games between both teams:
                                                                      2008-09 season: Mon Mar 16 2009 at Cha Charlotte 112, Toronto 86
                                                                      2008-09 season: Fri Mar 20 2009 at Tor Charlotte 102, Toronto 89
                                                                      2009-10 season: Wed Nov 25 2009 at Cha Charlotte 116, Toronto 81
                                                                      2009-10 season: Wed Dec 30 2009 at Tor Toronto 107, Charlotte 103

                                                                      CHAR are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
                                                                      Comment
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