Monday: Suns/Warriors Total = 244

[lakerboy]

This started when I mocked his as if the movement pointed over. Instead of explaining how a 244-247-243 movement points to over, he insults me and then everyone comes to his rescue without even addressing the facts.

Okay i said the books were playing with the line. The line opened at 243 and shot up with most betting the under and when the books realized most were betting the under they brought it back slowly to 243. They knew all along it was going over. It was a ploy the books use often on totals. The line shoots up and then goes down but goes over the original #. There is your explanation.

[No coincidences]

Okay i said the books were playing with the line. The line opened at 243 and shot up with most betting the under and when the books realized most were betting the under they brought it back slowly to 243. They knew all along it was going over. It was a ploy the books use often on totals. The line shoots up and then goes down but goes over the original #. There is your explanation.

Four point spikes in one direction or the other -- let alone both -- shows exactly that. Vegas was moving this around like a yo-yo to get action, not to indicate a particular play. I don't think you can read anything into such violent swings in both directions -- simple action baiting IMHO.

[$Burm$]

hey LB, just out of curiousity, how did u learn so much about line movements and wat they mean, did u see the outcomes of games and then go back to see the line history and wat happened or did sumone pass down the knowledge to you?

[lakerboy]

yup nothing to read into there- the game was gonna go over. all you had to do was look at the opening # of 243 and go press over and click submit

[lakerboy]

hey LB, just out of curiousity, how did u learn so much about line movements and wat they mean, did u see the outcomes of games and then go back to see the line history and wat happened or did sumone pass down the knowledge to you?

it takes a lot of patience my friend. you have to learn the hard way. it is mandatory though to use pinny #'s. no one gave me this info- its all there for you to see.

[BernardMadoff]

..................

[$Burm$]

it takes a lot of patience my friend. you have to learn the hard way. it is mandatory though to use pinny #'s. no one gave me this info- its all there for you to see.

alright thanks man

[No coincidences]

yup nothing to read into there- the game was gonna go over. all you had to do was look at the opening # of 243 and go press over and click submit

Some numbers are so blatantly set at baiting the public, they're almost a given. I think that's why you have to play the CHA/WASH under tomorrow -- same reason, because everyone and their dog is going to look at an oddball number and hammer it exactly the way Vegas wants you to.

[Powderguy]

Suns almost blew this game, that's the worst part, they suck.

[Sunde91]

But it was RLM when it went to 247 with action on the under early. The books would expect further action on the under with it shooting up, they wouldn't "realize" people were on under as if it were unintended.

Action leaned under originally, then more under, then even. They wanted public under, got it, got more of it, and THEN said "too much under" while "knowing all along it was going over" and thus passing on a clean-up.

[Sunde91]

aaa

[lakerboy]

But it was RLM when it went to 247 with action on the under early. The books would expect further action on the under with it shooting up, they wouldn't "realize" people were on under as if it were unintended.

Action leaned under originally, then more under, then even. They wanted public under, got it, got more of it, and THEN said "too much under" while "knowing all along it was going over" and thus passing on a clean-up.

keep an eye on totals. they were playing with the line all day- look how juiced it was at matchy. they did clean up - all the early public money was on under. they didnt set that line at 243 for no reason. just watch lines like that in the future- trust me i do it all the time- its even worse in college

[quick$]

LB, it was scary how you call that Boston would be up 3-4 at half. They were up like 6. That was pretty astute.
How did you know or arrive to that. Thanks to the tip there I cashed nicely 2H on Jazz.

[will2survive]

this damn game cost me the 300 point winner contest

[Sunde91]

keep an eye on totals. they were playing with the line all day- look how juiced it was at matchy. they did clean up - all the early public money was on under. they didnt set that line at 243 for no reason. just watch lines like that in the future- trust me i do it all the time- its even worse in college

There's still no solid reason why they would bring it back down 4 points if they knew it was going over and they wanted the public on under for a clean-up.

[No coincidences]

There's still no solid reason why they would bring it back down 4 points if they knew it was going over and they wanted the public on under for a clean-up.

If you're sitting at home, and you see it jump from 243 to 247, what's your first instinct?

Mine would be, "oh shit, maybe this isn't going under after all!"

Once they sucked all that action in for a while and balanced things out, they worked their way back down to 243. Vegas isn't interested in calling winners -- it wants the most action on a number. At 243 early, everyone bet the under. At 247, people were panicking at the 4-point increase and scrambled for the over. The 243 close was to sucker people back in on the under.

Vegas wants action first and foremost.

[Totolover1409]

Guess I took the bait. Got a lot to learn.

[Sunde91]

So then why isn't the public more savvy towards most other instances of RLM if you're saying people dumped on the over here after the RLM, which moved action closer to even.

Does RLM not come from 1) tons of sharp money 2) the books further enticement of the public to pick the heavy public side?

But here you're saying RLM had the opposite effect and that the books wanted to bring it closer to even so they boosted the total and anticipated the savviness of the public to go over? And then LB says the opposite of what you say, that 247 brought in more under.

[peeiempee]

Love that easy money for the over

[yisman]

here's the bottom line:

of course it's an outrageous total, but the books have to set it this high simply due to the fact that these teams play the fastest-paced highest scoring games in the NBA.

I think if Golden State were healthy, this total might be 6 points lower or something, but they've become a caricature of even a Don Nelson team with all the injuries.

During the loss to Memphis, they at one point had four guards and Devean George on the floor. All their true big men are injured.

This is not a new thing. They've been without big men for a while.

Since we know this, let's look at their last seven games:

266
215 (against Portland!)
236
245
252
263 (San Antonio!)
230

No overtimes. These games all ended in regulation, at an average of ~243.87

So if you're thinking about the under, consider that four of GS's last seven have gone over what tonight's total is set at, and only one of those games (Toronto) was against a team that likes to push.

While it's tempting to bet this line, I think I would advise you to stay away.

Almost topped all of them.

[sni757575]

same scenario last year phoenix at golden state. got CRUSHED betting the under around 244 last year