Monday: Suns/Warriors Total = 244

**GiveMeaBJ** · 03-22-10, 04:18 PM

Should be a very fun game to watch though. How does NBA TV not pick this game up?

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 04:20 PM

here's the bottom line:

of course it's an outrageous total, but the books have to set it this high simply due to the fact that these teams play the fastest-paced highest scoring games in the NBA.

I think if Golden State were healthy, this total might be 6 points lower or something, but they've become a caricature of even a Don Nelson team with all the injuries.

During the loss to Memphis, they at one point had four guards and Devean George on the floor. All their true big men are injured.

This is not a new thing. They've been without big men for a while.

Since we know this, let's look at their last seven games:

266
215 (against Portland!)
236
245
252
263 (San Antonio!)
230

No overtimes. These games all ended in regulation, at an average of ~243.87

So if you're thinking about the under, consider that four of GS's last seven have gone over what tonight's total is set at, and only one of those games (Toronto) was against a team that likes to push.

While it's tempting to bet this line, I think I would advise you to stay away.

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Alright here is what I think is going on. I could be completley wrong. The Warriors overs have been pounding the books and now they are adjusting and I think it is a bit of an over adjustment. It reminds me of the 2007 Patriots in the NFL when they couldn't make a line high enough and finally when they started setting them at -17 to -25 against good teams people started giving some money back.

Yeah, that was a crazy season. They covered every line until the books overadjusted, and then they covered almost nothing after that.

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 04:25 PM

wow. I just did the math, and Golden State's last seven games have averaged almost bang on the line.

243.857 points per game, no overtimes.

**cecbo** · 03-22-10, 04:29 PM

Books playing with the line? Damn those mf'ers! It's back down to 244.5 at mine... WTF is going on with this movement?

**kidkonggolf** · 03-22-10, 04:33 PM

Line is too high. Under tonite!

**Sunde91** · 03-22-10, 04:39 PM

Action is bouncing all over the place. 2 minutes ago, it was 53% under, now 56%. And the total is now dropping 3 points down from 246.5 this morning after being 244 last night.

Under 246.5

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 04:46 PM

just dropped 1.5 points to 243

**AzNDooM** · 03-22-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

if you take the under in this game you will be asking yourself why did i do that 6 mins in when you type in the # into your calculator and it show 265 projection with no hope of getting lower. be smart.

I have to agree with LB and your talking to a person who does number crunching at all aspects. The Under looks like the play and all systems show that UNDER is the play, however this is a SHARP Angle Play and you have to look at game film to see why it will be OVER. These teams historically love to score. In addition, GSW atmospheric pressure altitude is alot higher in other locations in United States which will provided more air time and allow easier baskets. Add the addition of possible OVERTIME into the equation/quick pace and 7 second/shot shooting team and you get a score well in the 270's. This game is going OVER by a mile and if you watch any game film and not NUMBERS you'll know this is an easy call.

**AzNDooM** · 03-22-10, 04:57 PM

The only way this doesnt go UNDER is if the shooters absolutely go cold (im meaning 25-30% shooting both sides) and injuries to top players early in the 1st quarter happens to all the top shooters.

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by AzNDooM

The only way this doesnt go UNDER is if the shooters absolutely go cold (im meaning 25-30% shooting both sides) and injuries to top players early in the 1st quarter happens to all the top shooters.

Don't you mean the only way it doesn't go over?

**kobefanatic** · 03-22-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

damn we are 13 hours off. it 12pm noon were i am at. How many folks are betting NBA in the Philip. Kobe?

many people loves the nba here, our college has bookies in almost every hangout place

**Devon** · 03-22-10, 05:23 PM

I'm not too sure what you are on but I'm really liking the under here. A great deal of people aren't on the under compared to the over (as in it's about 60-40), plus there is very sexy line movement for the under as well.

Definitely liking this to go under and by a great deal. Both teams have been scoring "high" of late and that's where a lot of the extra added points have come from for the total. I don't think they're going to have a high scoring game as both teams have recently had (ie. GSW/Spurs, Suns/Minny GSW/Atlanta or GSW/NOH x2).

If the Suns just shutdown the Warriors, which it will take only one quarter and the "over" on the total is goneski! Sure they could potentially put up a 70 point quarter but they're going to have to play at a high freakin' level for four quarters. Sure there's also a good chance that both teams will be off with shooting too!

Just because it is the highest total in an NBA game apart from Allstar games, doesn't automatically make sure the game will hit over the mid 240s.

Under for mine but good luck with your plays ladies.

I got the total at under 246 and just added some more at under 244, with the great line movement!

**The fiddler** · 03-22-10, 06:19 PM

This total could be fixed on under so easily with the collusion of the coaches. I understand pro coaches are well payed, but to slow the game down on each side for one quarter or so....easy money.

**Totolover1409** · 03-22-10, 07:02 PM

Definitely taking a stab at the U 246.

**Mybologne** · 03-22-10, 07:04 PM

like the game under

**sweetjones55** · 03-22-10, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Devon

I'm not too sure what you are on but I'm really liking the under here. A great deal of people aren't on the under compared to the over (as in it's about 60-40), plus there is very sexy line movement for the under as well.

Definitely liking this to go under and by a great deal. Both teams have been scoring "high" of late and that's where a lot of the extra added points have come from for the total. I don't think they're going to have a high scoring game as both teams have recently had (ie. GSW/Spurs, Suns/Minny GSW/Atlanta or GSW/NOH x2).

If the Suns just shutdown the Warriors, which it will take only one quarter and the "over" on the total is goneski! Sure they could potentially put up a 70 point quarter but they're going to have to play at a high freakin' level for four quarters. Sure there's also a good chance that both teams will be off with shooting too!

Just because it is the highest total in an NBA game apart from Allstar games, doesn't automatically make sure the game will hit over the mid 240s.

Under for mine but good luck with your plays ladies.

I got the total at under 246 and just added some more at under 244, with the great line movement!

Not everyone is taking the over JUST because of that fact. Warriors have been allowing mediocre offensive teams score 130+ on them all day, Suns aren't mediocre on offense in the least bit, #1 in PPG.

**sweetjones55** · 03-22-10, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by Devon

calm down, sunshine!

your thread just got merged with the fifty zillion other suns/gsw total threads!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...ml#post3721963

Their might be a few other threads on this play but I think my writeup is above and beyond those others.

**anjaru** · 03-22-10, 07:22 PM

The people that are taking under are just taking it because 246 seems like a ridiculous number. I watch every single GSW game since I live in the Bay Area. If you take under, I guarantee you, you'll be pissing your pants at the half.

**fury** · 03-22-10, 07:26 PM

I like the over, and I like Warriors +5 even more.

**lunchbawks** · 03-22-10, 07:41 PM

this is a total gamble. who knows ???

**texhooper** · 03-22-10, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

this is a total gamble. who knows ???

you nailed it.

this thread is about gambling on a total. welcome to the gambling forum, chief.

**c-pod** · 03-22-10, 08:10 PM

im all in on the over

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by fury

I like the over, and I like Warriors +5 even more.

I'm with you on the spread.

Don't see how anyone could lay the points here.

**Grind House** · 03-22-10, 08:54 PM

Gamble my ass. This game is not going over.

**QUEST001** · 03-22-10, 08:59 PM

OVER!!!This is a easy over!!!

**samitarian** · 03-22-10, 09:14 PM

feck it, put all of the $50 free play I bought on the over at betphoenix, O243, -105.

**cornhuskfan** · 03-22-10, 09:17 PM

with the suns playing last night i think the defense will be scarce but they will love to score. They have the next three days off after tonight. I think it will be going over. Always entertaining

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 09:46 PM

this is nuts

15 points in 3 minutes

**anjaru** · 03-22-10, 10:44 PM

If Monte could actually start scoring, this game would be WAY over.

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 11:28 PM

This one may become the new highest-scoring game of the season.

It's going wayyyyyy over.

**AL1322** · 03-22-10, 11:31 PM

looking go so far over backers lets cash it in the 4th

**yisman** · 03-22-10, 11:43 PM

The scoreboard just exploded, sadly causing the untimely deaths of several spectators and injuring many others.
kidding

**jboy4** · 03-22-10, 11:47 PM

18 more

**cecbo** · 03-22-10, 11:50 PM

Congrats it's OVER!