Last night's line was sharp as ever Portland/GS

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  • seaborneq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-08-06
    • 22556

    #1
    Last night's line was sharp as ever Portland/GS
    Line Portland -5.5, 215.5. Final score Portland 110-105 total 215. A half point either way decided a winner. Sharp as hell. This is why you can't win long term.
  • eidolon
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-02-08
    • 9531

    #2
    I'm sure glad i had +5.5 and over. cash cash money
    Comment
    • fsugolf
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-17-09
      • 6194

      #3
      one game out of how many yesterday?
      Comment
      • louisvillekid
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-14-07
        • 9262

        #4
        i got GS +6 very early in the evening. lucked out i guess, but it was tight though.
        Comment
        • seaborneq
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 09-08-06
          • 22556

          #5
          Originally posted by fsugolf
          one game out of how many yesterday?
          If you look and study closely a majority of the lines are pretty darn near the actual outcome. I know you are trying to be a smart ass, but if you play and win consistently you will notice when the lines are damn near perfect.
          Comment
          • Dank_Fire
            SBR MVP
            • 05-13-09
            • 2269

            #6
            I dont know how they do it....Pace and Temp data?? i wish i had those stats
            Comment
            • pats3peat
              SBR MVP
              • 10-23-05
              • 1163

              #7
              Originally posted by Dank_Fire
              I dont know how they do it....Pace and Temp data?? i wish i had those stats
              u can find pace and stuff data..nbastuffer.com


              just because one total/side is accurate doesnt mean vegas is great
              look at all the other game results heh.
              Comment
              • Dank_Fire
                SBR MVP
                • 05-13-09
                • 2269

                #8
                Originally posted by pats3peat


                just because one total/side is accurate doesnt mean vegas is great
                look at all the other game results heh.
                Well, i doubt they are running low on cash
                Comment
                • seaborneq
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-08-06
                  • 22556

                  #9
                  Originally posted by pats3peat
                  u can find pace and stuff data..nbastuffer.com


                  just because one total/side is accurate doesnt mean vegas is great
                  look at all the other game results heh.
                  Books win on every bet, I hope you knew that. It is called Juice or Vig, whether the line is perfect or not.
                  Comment
                  • seaborneq
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-08-06
                    • 22556

                    #10
                    Originally posted by pats3peat
                    u can find pace and stuff data..nbastuffer.com


                    just because one total/side is accurate doesnt mean vegas is great
                    look at all the other game results heh.
                    You seem so confident and secure, why don't you post a few plays before the games start if vegas is oh so not great with the lines. Let's see how long it will take to empty your empty pockets.
                    Comment
                    • BettingWizard
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 11-28-09
                      • 6522

                      #11
                      didnt know we had to bet every game on the board
                      Comment
                      • tealish
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-02-10
                        • 3386

                        #12
                        Yep, if you bet every single game, you will almost always lose out in the long run. But that's why you pick your spots
                        Comment
                        • tealish
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-02-10
                          • 3386

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BettingWizard
                          didnt know we had to bet every game on the board
                          ^This guy gets it
                          Comment
                          • BettingWizard
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-28-09
                            • 6522

                            #14
                            plus, if you really think they are sharp on everything, why not do teasers and 2nd half bets on team losing at half?
                            Comment
                            • sharpcat
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-19-09
                              • 4516

                              #15
                              Originally posted by seaborneq
                              Books win on every bet, I hope you knew that. It is called Juice or Vig, whether the line is perfect or not.
                              This is the most uneducated statement I have ever seen
                              Comment
                              • sharpcat
                                Restricted User
                                • 12-19-09
                                • 4516

                                #16
                                ND/WV o/u yesterday opened at 129 and the under got pounded, books dropped the line all the way down to 125 and still ended with 65% action on the under.

                                Final total=104

                                The books got crushed on this game and the original line was off by 25 pts.!!! so with 65% or better of the action on the under how did the books win money on this game???????
                                Comment
                                • shoebox
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-26-08
                                  • 5710

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by sharpcat
                                  This is the most uneducated statement I have ever seen

                                  They do with balanced action most of the time, thats why the line moves.
                                  Comment
                                  • jayc88
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 12-30-07
                                    • 6785

                                    #18
                                    lol the final score doesnt show you how sharp a line was,
                                    this thread is a joke

                                    Comment
                                    • sharpcat
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 12-19-09
                                      • 4516

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by shoebox
                                      They do with balanced action most of the time, thats why the line moves.
                                      How did the books winning "every time" turn into "most of the time"?
                                      Comment
                                      • seaborneq
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 09-08-06
                                        • 22556

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by sharpcat
                                        ND/WV o/u yesterday opened at 129 and the under got pounded, books dropped the line all the way down to 125 and still ended with 65% action on the under.

                                        Final total=104

                                        The books got crushed on this game and the original line was off by 25 pts.!!! so with 65% or better of the action on the under how did the books win money on this game???????
                                        So you are taking a one game sample too, and saying the books lost everything they owned based on one off line. I bet the books didn't have enough to even post lines for later games they were so crushed. All of them were crushed so badly. Boo hoo for the books for missing 1, ONE, line by 25 points. Also very educated.
                                        Comment
                                        • sharpcat
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 12-19-09
                                          • 4516

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by seaborneq
                                          So you are taking a one game sample too, and saying the books lost everything they owned based on one off line. I bet the books didn't have enough to even post lines for later games they were so crushed. All of them were crushed so badly. Boo hoo for the books for missing 1, ONE, line by 25 points. Also very educated.
                                          simply just pointing out how extremely flawed your reasoning for not being able to beat the books is by using 1 game which happened to land right on the spread as an example.

                                          considering that the probability of a push occurring is only 5%, roughly, means that 95% of the time the game is not going to land on a push, therefore meaning that there must be a winning side.

                                          The books are almost guaranteed to come out ahead not on every single game but throughout the course of many games because of the vig, but this does not mean that you as a player can not come out ahead over the course of many games if you pick your spots carefully and find yourself on the winning side of these wagers 53% is all you need to make a profit.

                                          Boo hoo if you are not capable of finding yourself on the winning side of wagers enough to profit, but to claim it as impossible because 5 games out of 100 landed on the spread is the outlook of a disgruntled loser.
                                          Comment
                                          • Tsoprano
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 04-14-08
                                            • 26374

                                            #22
                                            Would of liked to get the Over 215 in
                                            Comment
                                            • sharpcat
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 12-19-09
                                              • 4516

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by seaborneq
                                              Books win on every bet, I hope you knew that. It is called Juice or Vig, whether the line is perfect or not.
                                              Books do not win on every bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • Tsoprano
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 04-14-08
                                                • 26374

                                                #24
                                                Books do not win every ****ing game. What stupid reasoning. THEY CAN AFFORD to make a nice profit with even action but let's be real here... it's rare to have a 50/50 split on games.

                                                Greed and general squareness is how books make a killing. They make more when consistently exposed on one side as the general public goes down in flames.
                                                Comment
                                                • Tsoprano
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 04-14-08
                                                  • 26374

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                  Books win on every bet, I hope you knew that. It is called Juice or Vig, whether the line is perfect or not.
                                                  So if a book is holding let's say the Lakers vs the Suns at a PK, and 85% of the action is on the Lakers... they won on that bet?

                                                  Vig is a HUGE thing in the house's favor long term. Poor money management from addicts is what they bank on. Not to balance out both sides of a game.

                                                  Comment
                                                  • mintybetmachine
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 10-30-09
                                                    • 467

                                                    #26
                                                    or you just don't bet on games that have sharp lines?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • phillybadboy
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                      • 9383

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                      Line Portland -5.5, 215.5. Final score Portland 110-105 total 215. A half point either way decided a winner. Sharp as hell. This is why you can't win long term.
                                                      nice
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BettingWizard
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-28-09
                                                        • 6522

                                                        #28
                                                        Purdue line off 30 pts.......vegas so sharp
                                                        Comment
                                                        • seaborneq
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 09-08-06
                                                          • 22556

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Tsoprano
                                                          So if a book is holding let's say the Lakers vs the Suns at a PK, and 85% of the action is on the Lakers... they won on that bet?

                                                          Vig is a HUGE thing in the house's favor long term. Poor money management from addicts is what they bank on. Not to balance out both sides of a game.

                                                          You will never have 85% action on one side.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nobs
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 08-31-09
                                                            • 4216

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by eidolon
                                                            I'm sure glad i had +5.5 and over. cash cash money

                                                            1 winner, 1 loser. Lose the juice
                                                            Comment
                                                            • t-bone
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-18-08
                                                              • 3732

                                                              #31
                                                              this is why you don't bet on national televised games
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jjgold
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-20-05
                                                                • 388179

                                                                #32
                                                                Most of the time the lines makers are correct , its mazing how so many games come right down to the number at end of game.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • seaborneq
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 09-08-06
                                                                  • 22556

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by jjgold
                                                                  Most of the time the lines makers are correct , its mazing how so many games come right down to the number at end of game.
                                                                  Finally we agree JJ
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Tsoprano
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-14-08
                                                                    • 26374

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                                    You will never have 85% action on one side.
                                                                    Pal, that was obviously an example.

                                                                    It is extremely rare to have a 50/50 split on games, EXTREMELY rare.

                                                                    But yet books clean up year in and year out.

                                                                    Vig is a very strong asset the house has, but come on they do not need to balance anything out.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Tsoprano
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-14-08
                                                                      • 26374

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                                      Finally we agree JJ
                                                                      I don't think anyone will sit here and debate with you that Vegas doesn't know what they are doing. They definitely know what they are doing.
                                                                      Comment
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