Jazz -5 tonight
After being up late last night to watch the Jazz take on Portland in a great game that ended up in OT, I think the Jazz have a lot to offer for us tonight. The Jazz are an interesting team in that, they are day and night when it comes to home and away games. On the road, you never know which team will show up. However, at home, they are usually pretty consistent. Tonight, the Jazz are home to the young Atlanta Hawks, and even though they are coming off of a game late last night, I still like them to cover for us tonight in this match-up.
The Jazz are a team that got out to a rather slow start this season, and against the NBA's top 10 teams, neither of these teams fairs that well. The Jazz and the Hawks fair not too well against good opponents as they are each below .500 against these good opponents. The Jazz are 7-12, while the Hawks are 8-10 against the NBA's top 10 teams...these information is all based off of the Sagarin rankings. What's further however, is that the Jazz have a better record against teams in the top 16 of the NBA, as they rank at 19-14, while the Hawks are 16-14. Overall, these teams are pretty similar in these categories, neither are good against top 10 NBA teams (both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 currently), and against the top 16 NBA teams the Jazz have a better record. There is another key area in which I like to look at when tipping games, and that is strength of schedule. The Jazz have the NBAs 9th ranked most difficult shcedule, while the Hawks are ranked 10th. These teams, on paper, are almost identical in terms of the seasons they have had so far.
So what will, or what does, set these teams apart in a match-up for tonight? I think the answer is clearly the difference between playing home and on the road. The Hawks are 13-14 on the road, while the Jazz are an impressive 22-7 at home. These teams met once earlier in the season, and the Hawks won by 13 in Atlanta...I full expect a similar result in the opposite direction tonight as these teams have similar home/away records as well. As I mentioned above, these teams are statistically very similar right down to strenght of schedule. The have similar road records, home records, records vs. the top 10 in the NBA, etc. All things being equal, these teams are robotic in a way...when playing at home, the odds are they will win. 5 is a good number for this game, but I do expect a 7-9 point victory for the Jazz in this contest tonight. I don't expect them to be gassed after last night, as they are returning home for this one and they are playing a good opponent. Jazz should cover here tonight.
My Pick: Jazz -5 tonight vs. Hawks.
The Jazz are a team that got out to a rather slow start this season, and against the NBA's top 10 teams, neither of these teams fairs that well. The Jazz and the Hawks fair not too well against good opponents as they are each below .500 against these good opponents. The Jazz are 7-12, while the Hawks are 8-10 against the NBA's top 10 teams...these information is all based off of the Sagarin rankings. What's further however, is that the Jazz have a better record against teams in the top 16 of the NBA, as they rank at 19-14, while the Hawks are 16-14. Overall, these teams are pretty similar in these categories, neither are good against top 10 NBA teams (both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 currently), and against the top 16 NBA teams the Jazz have a better record. There is another key area in which I like to look at when tipping games, and that is strength of schedule. The Jazz have the NBAs 9th ranked most difficult shcedule, while the Hawks are ranked 10th. These teams, on paper, are almost identical in terms of the seasons they have had so far.
So what will, or what does, set these teams apart in a match-up for tonight? I think the answer is clearly the difference between playing home and on the road. The Hawks are 13-14 on the road, while the Jazz are an impressive 22-7 at home. These teams met once earlier in the season, and the Hawks won by 13 in Atlanta...I full expect a similar result in the opposite direction tonight as these teams have similar home/away records as well. As I mentioned above, these teams are statistically very similar right down to strenght of schedule. The have similar road records, home records, records vs. the top 10 in the NBA, etc. All things being equal, these teams are robotic in a way...when playing at home, the odds are they will win. 5 is a good number for this game, but I do expect a 7-9 point victory for the Jazz in this contest tonight. I don't expect them to be gassed after last night, as they are returning home for this one and they are playing a good opponent. Jazz should cover here tonight.
My Pick: Jazz -5 tonight vs. Hawks.
