An NBA game line - favorite is at 6½: You like the underdog as a pick

Wilforth · 02-18-10, 10:15 PM

What's the significance of number 7?

whatsgood5 · 02-18-10, 10:33 PM

I never buy points in basketball.

lakerboy · 02-18-10, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

What's the significance of number 7?

The # 7 is the key number in nba. The average margin of victory is 7 points in NBA games.

jetsjets1028 · 02-18-10, 11:27 PM

i sell it.. ive seen all dif scores and winning margains

durito · 02-18-10, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

The # 7 is the key number in nba. The average margin of victory is 7 points in NBA games.

huh

smitch124 · 02-18-10, 11:57 PM

Man what happened to Ganchrow's ATS push frequency thread? Its all gobbley gook, answers this thread directly

20Four7 · 02-19-10, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

The # 7 is the key number in nba. The average margin of victory is 7 points in NBA games.

I have no data right now but I highly doubt this. BTW I never lay double digits and 7 means nothing to me in NBA but I could be persuaded if someone showed me the truth.

durito · 02-19-10, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by 20Four7

I have no data right now but I highly doubt this. BTW I never lay double digits and 7 means nothing to me in NBA but I could be persuaded if someone showed me the truth.

fishead thinks it means something. it doesn't.

ZetaPsi808 · 02-19-10, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

The # 7 is the key number in nba. The average margin of victory is 7 points in NBA games.

lakerboy where do you find this stat. do you have a link?

dynamite140 · 02-19-10, 01:17 AM

hey20four7, who is that in your avatar? Does anyone know who that is?

2daBank · 02-19-10, 02:25 AM

i voted always and was shocked to see i was the only 1...as LB said 7 is a very key number...really the lowest number in college or pro's that i consider taking the dog if i dont feel they are gonna win str8 up...of coarse ive covered several lower spreads with dogs just my rule is less than 7 gotta feel my team has a good shot at the str8 up victory

lakerboy · 02-19-10, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by ZetaPsi808

lakerboy where do you find this stat. do you have a link?

i do but its no point arguing with people around here. the highest % of nba games end at 7 points differential out of all the #'s. certainly not the most meaningful stat though

suicidekings · 02-19-10, 03:43 AM

Lakerboy is correct. So far this season, through 801 games, more have ended by 7 points than any other MOV.

(MOV, # of occurances, %):

1 38 4.74%
2 47 5.87%
3 38 4.74%
4 46 5.74%
5 43 5.37%
6 43 5.37%
7 66 8.24%
8 47 5.87%
9 50 6.24%
10 36 4.49%
11 44 5.49%
12 33 4.12%
13 30 3.75%
14 28 3.50%
15 16 2.00%
16 28 3.50%
17 16 2.00%
18 21 2.62%
19 16 2.00%
20 12 1.50%
21 5 0.62%
22 15 1.87%
23 9 1.12%
24 7 0.87%
25 12 1.50%
26 6 0.75%
27 5 0.62%
28 10 1.25%
29 1 0.12%
30 5 0.62%
31 6 0.75%
32 4 0.50%
33 7 0.87%
34 1 0.12%
35 3 0.37%

*Standard Deviation = ~1%

Wilforth · 02-19-10, 03:47 AM

Originally posted by 20Four7

I have no data right now but I highly doubt this. BTW I never lay double digits and 7 means nothing to me in NBA but I could be persuaded if someone showed me the truth.

When did you acquire your new avatar?

suicidekings · 02-19-10, 03:55 AM

As for its significance, I don't really think it has any, at least in my experience. Every scenario is different and making generalizations about buying the hook onto the "key" number is probably not a profitable strategy in the long run.

The only "key" number I adjust my wagering for is +3.5, and that only means that I'm more likely to take a dog just on the moneyline if they're at +3.5 or less, as opposed to spread or a spread/ML combo for bigger dogs. My theory is never bet a team to just cover a one possession spread. Bet them to win or lay off.

Grind House · 02-19-10, 04:32 AM

I'm with you suicide, but I go even lower at 3. If I think you can cover three, I'm taking you ML for sure.

LT Profits · 02-19-10, 07:18 AM

NEVER

Code:

Spr	No.   	St Err	Freq
1	6,510	0.19%	2.29%
2	8,059	0.22%	3.92%
3	9,476	0.20%	3.84%
4	10,330	0.18%	3.50%
5	10,286	0.20%	4.30%
6	9,626	0.20%	4.11%
7	8,679	0.21%	4.09%
8	7,563	0.23%	4.17%
9	6,273	0.27%	4.69%
10	5,119	0.28%	4.12%
11	4,098	0.31%	4.05%
12	3,163	0.33%	3.48%
13	2,397	0.39%	3.84%
14	1,811	0.42%	3.37%
15	1,277	0.49%	3.13%
16	850  	0.76%	5.18%
17	509  	0.77%	3.14%
18	286  	1.03%	3.15%
19	162  	1.36%	3.09%

There is no key number in NBA to the degree there is in football.

Wilforth · 02-19-10, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

There is no key number in NBA to the degree there is in football.

What's the key # in football?

Glitch · 02-19-10, 07:36 AM

bad team against bad team ill buy the half a point. better safe than sorry.

whatsgood5 · 02-19-10, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

What's the key # in football?

Wondering myself. And thanks for the info LT

durito · 02-19-10, 09:27 AM

...

LT Profits · 02-19-10, 10:30 AM

I thought it was obvious, but 3 and 7 in football and sometimes 10 depending on the total.

Patrick McIrish · 02-19-10, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

What's the key # in football?

The 3, the 3!!!

The General · 02-19-10, 11:52 AM

Doesn't the 7 in NBA have a significance because of the 3 possessions needed when teams are down most likely will not foul in that scenario at the ending of a game, correct? 6 is a two poss game whereas 7 is a three poss scenario.

donjuan · 02-19-10, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by The General

Doesn't the 7 in NBA have a significance because of the 3 possessions needed when teams are down most likely will not foul in that scenario at the ending of a game, correct? 6 is a two poss game whereas 7 is a three poss scenario.

The data does not bear this out.

jackpot269 · 02-19-10, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I thought it was obvious, but 3 and 7 in football and sometimes 10 depending on the total.

You would think this, but on your chart 5 had the highest %

smitch124 · 02-19-10, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by jackpot269

You would think this, but on your chart 5 had the highest %

The chart that LT posted if for the push frequencies in the NBA.

LT Profits · 02-19-10, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by jackpot269

You would think this, but on your chart 5 had the highest %

I posted NBA. I was answering the previous posters that asked about football in my last post.

jackpot269 · 02-19-10, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by jackpot269

You would think this, but on your chart 5 had the highest %

sorry i missed the 4.69 on 9

jackpot269 · 02-19-10, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I posted NBA. I was answering the previous posters that asked about football in my last post.

sorry LT I misunderstood thuoght it was for foots!!!!!!!!!

Pancho sanza · 02-19-10, 03:47 PM

Estimate the win % of the bet at +6.5 and +7 and only pay for the hook if your $$ win exp is increased.

Example using hypothetical #'s

Bet wins at +6.5 = 54.0 %
Bet wins at +7 = 56.3 %
Cost to buy 1/2 pt = 10 cents
Bankroll 100,000

@ full Kelly

Win exp @ +6.5 -110 = 105.09
Win exp @ +7 -120 = 124.16

So given the above assumptions, you would pay the 10 cents to get onto +7

Thremp · 02-19-10, 04:06 PM

This is actually an interesting question.

In a game that is lined pk. How much is 6.5pts worth? How much is 7 points worth? Use those %s into your kelly calc at -110 and -120. That should give the answer.

SpreadSniper · 02-19-10, 04:33 PM

just to further LB's point of key numbers in NBA.....

"7-points 7.3%
5-points 7.3%
2-points 6.5%
6-points 6.4%
3-points 5.8%
8-points 5.6%
9-points 5.1%
4-points 4.3%
So far this season, these eight outcomes account for the final margin of victory in 48.4% of all NBA games (down slightly from 51.1%). Ten and 11 both have climbed slightly and are now 5.0 and 4.4% respectively. One-point wins are happening 3.6% of the time. Again, above 14 the drop-off is dramatic.
Right now I know you are asking “So what?” Let me try and explain how this can help you. First, you know to be very diligent in shopping for the best line if the spread is –2 to –11. This should be the case with any spread but is particularly important in this range. Getting –6.5 instead of –7 in the NBA is statistically more important than getting –3.5 instead of –4 in the NFL but very, very few bettors are aware of that fact."

HOTSTREAKS

http://www.hotstreaks.com/articles/47.asp

Thremp · 02-19-10, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by SpreadSniper

just to further LB's point of key numbers in NBA..... "7-points 7.3% 5-points 7.3% 2-points 6.5% 6-points 6.4% 3-points 5.8% 8-points 5.6% 9-points 5.1% 4-points 4.3% So far this season, these eight outcomes account for the final margin of victory in 48.4% of all NBA games (down slightly from 51.1%). Ten and 11 both have climbed slightly and are now 5.0 and 4.4% respectively. One-point wins are happening 3.6% of the time. Again, above 14 the drop-off is dramatic. Right now I know you are asking “So what?” Let me try and explain how this can help you. First, you know to be very diligent in shopping for the best line if the spread is –2 to –11. This should be the case with any spread but is particularly important in this range. Getting –6.5 instead of –7 in the NBA is statistically more important than getting –3.5 instead of –4 in the NFL but very, very few bettors are aware of that fact." http://www.hotstreaks.com/articles/47.asp

Is this a joke?