Now Tgoat has started a thread about line movement meaning nothing or that there is no correlation of success by following it. I do believe that the books are manipulating lines all the time. No, I have no data to support my claim, but please indulge me and explain this for all the efficient market believers out there such as Monkey Focker, Tgoat, or any others that wants to chime in.
Utah has opened at -4.5 on the road to the Clippers. OK, everybody and there brother has started a thread about this line and doesn't care if it is a trap or not they are betting it now or they are going to bet it. The so called sharps are not even stupid enough to play the Clippers. Regardless, if you are sharp are not why would you bet against the Jazz?? I am not trying to predict events here. I have no clue of the outcome of this game. For all I know the Clippers might just win tonite. My point is this.... If money moves the lines than why is Dallas -4.5 not moved to -5 or -5.5 or so on. SBR odds currently shows about 1/3 of bets on the Clippers, but seriously who in the hell got out of bed this morning and said... "Damn, I got to get me some Clippers +4.5 @ home against the Jazz... My short answer to you is nobody thinks like that.. If a sharp or a insider that truly believes that the Clippers are the play here than they would wait on the premise of the line moving up, thus getting a better #... Generally, speaking more times than not you can always get a better # by waiting to play the underdog.. Not always, but more times than not.
I am just confused and welcome all comments here. Seriously, I have been betting NBA 10+ years and I don't know anyone that rolled out of bed this morning and said the Clippers are the play... This all goes back to Lakerboys thinking that the books have opinions. Does the books not think they are gonna get more action on the Jazz here? They don't seem to mind. For all Clippers backers out there reading this.. What is it that you see that has led you to bet the Clippers in this spot??
It's still early in the day, but from my experience if this line holds all the way to game time I would agree the Clippers are the play. From my experience from following lines the best lines are the ones that don't move. Meaning, if you know everybody is on the Jazz and the line never moves than the Clippers, would be a bet,but I will not play it regardless. I don't believe in line movement as the 100% be all end all to the solution therefore I will not bet the Clippers even if my analysis tells me to do so in this spot. At the end of the day your best bet is when your fundamental analysis lines up with your technical analysis.
Utah has opened at -4.5 on the road to the Clippers. OK, everybody and there brother has started a thread about this line and doesn't care if it is a trap or not they are betting it now or they are going to bet it. The so called sharps are not even stupid enough to play the Clippers. Regardless, if you are sharp are not why would you bet against the Jazz?? I am not trying to predict events here. I have no clue of the outcome of this game. For all I know the Clippers might just win tonite. My point is this.... If money moves the lines than why is Dallas -4.5 not moved to -5 or -5.5 or so on. SBR odds currently shows about 1/3 of bets on the Clippers, but seriously who in the hell got out of bed this morning and said... "Damn, I got to get me some Clippers +4.5 @ home against the Jazz... My short answer to you is nobody thinks like that.. If a sharp or a insider that truly believes that the Clippers are the play here than they would wait on the premise of the line moving up, thus getting a better #... Generally, speaking more times than not you can always get a better # by waiting to play the underdog.. Not always, but more times than not.
I am just confused and welcome all comments here. Seriously, I have been betting NBA 10+ years and I don't know anyone that rolled out of bed this morning and said the Clippers are the play... This all goes back to Lakerboys thinking that the books have opinions. Does the books not think they are gonna get more action on the Jazz here? They don't seem to mind. For all Clippers backers out there reading this.. What is it that you see that has led you to bet the Clippers in this spot??
It's still early in the day, but from my experience if this line holds all the way to game time I would agree the Clippers are the play. From my experience from following lines the best lines are the ones that don't move. Meaning, if you know everybody is on the Jazz and the line never moves than the Clippers, would be a bet,but I will not play it regardless. I don't believe in line movement as the 100% be all end all to the solution therefore I will not bet the Clippers even if my analysis tells me to do so in this spot. At the end of the day your best bet is when your fundamental analysis lines up with your technical analysis.