whyd the orlando line move 2 pts

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  • pats3peat
    SBR MVP
    • 10-23-05
    • 1163

    #1
    whyd the orlando line move 2 pts
    vs new orleans
  • kingsr
    SBR MVP
    • 01-23-10
    • 1983

    #2
    Because alot of money went on orlando
    Comment
    • pats3peat
      SBR MVP
      • 10-23-05
      • 1163

      #3
      how much
      Comment
      • pats3peat
        SBR MVP
        • 10-23-05
        • 1163

        #4
        55% of money on magic atm, prob was like 70% before, not eonugh to move it to 2 points
        Comment
        • Jshap1515
          SBR MVP
          • 02-16-09
          • 1023

          #5
          Orlando will crush the Hornets. Dwight is gonna get his normal 20 10
          Comment
          • DavidWoodley
            Restricted User
            • 09-28-09
            • 194

            #6
            Originally posted by pats3peat
            55% of money on magic atm, prob was like 70% before, not eonugh to move it to 2 points
            I see the Hornets pulling a cover. Yeah, I know they should not. But they will..like lose by 10. just a feeling here
            Comment
            • Noles506
              SBR Rookie
              • 01-28-10
              • 38

              #7
              Originally posted by Jshap1515
              Orlando will crush the Hornets. Dwight is gonna get his normal 20 10

              ^ You talk like the Magic ALWAYS cover, which they don't....Okafor is going to give Howard some problems down low.....Magic will more than likely win, but not cover...I have no idea why it jumped so much, last time i saw that was when Billups & Carmelo didn't play last game.
              Comment
              • Superman455
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-23-08
                • 366

                #8
                I dont think the Magic cover here as well
                Comment
                • pats3peat
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-23-05
                  • 1163

                  #9
                  youd think fkn public perception ... no average bettor perception (giving public too much credit) would be on the hornets

                  just played a hard game vs charlotte won, have a day rest. Orlando no rest, Beat boston oh wow...

                  maybe thornton was confirmed out agn therefore line move
                  Comment
                  • Noles506
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 01-28-10
                    • 38

                    #10
                    A lot of time i think they do it to really f**k with people, with the number being nearly 10...lot of people say, well N.O has no chance! The smart people out there don't look at any game this way.......I don't know if Thornton being in or out would warrant much of a line change.

                    Just my 2 cents...I'm looking at New Orleans @ +9.5
                    Comment
                    • pats3peat
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-23-05
                      • 1163

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Noles506
                      A lot of time i think they do it to really f**k with people, with the number being nearly 10...lot of people say, well N.O has no chance! The smart people out there don't look at any game this way.......I don't know if Thornton being in or out would warrant much of a line change.

                      Just my 2 cents...I'm looking at New Orleans @ +9.5
                      agreed
                      its ****ed, but new orleans im with ya
                      Comment
                      • krazey47409
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-04-09
                        • 2431

                        #12
                        i have just reviewed my data starting from dec 29 09 on line movement on spreads of at least 5 points and with a min 2 point upward movement and this is the results

                        i am currnetly reviewing past line movements jazz went from -8 to -10 and pushed couple nights ago. on jan 30 new orleans went from +5 to +7.5 with the public on the opposite side and new orleans coverd on. jan 23 the public was on hornets then nuggets then public closed on hornets.nuggets were -9.5 and went to -12 and did not cover vs the hornets. on jan 20 majic were -10 and went to -12 and covered vs the pacers. on jan 9 pacers opened +9 with public not on them went to +11 and covered. on jan 3 utah started -5 went to -7.5 and did not cover

                        as you can see this research heavily favors the hornets the past two times they were dogs with this type of movement they covered and 5 out of the last 6 times this type of line movement occured the dog covered except once with the majic who covered vs pacers im on hornets
                        Comment
                        • Crayzee
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 4945

                          #13
                          the casual observer sees no having no chance without paul
                          vegas lives for these games
                          no covers
                          Comment
                          • kingsr
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-23-10
                            • 1983

                            #14
                            Take Magic to win by under 10.5 +170
                            Comment
                            • cinaj05
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 01-12-10
                              • 325

                              #15
                              I see a probability NOH will this SU because of super bowl motivation.
                              Comment
                              • gizmo2431
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-11-08
                                • 971

                                #16
                                I like New Orleans to cover, but overall the game is a no play for me because if I was from New Orleans I would have been partying last night after the Superbowl. No action.
                                Comment
                                • tltaylor89
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 06-19-09
                                  • 19610

                                  #17
                                  Somebody just slammed it
                                  Comment
                                  • krazey47409
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-04-09
                                    • 2431

                                    #18
                                    i dont know why the books would do this if they think hornets will cover this movement made betters bet on hornets they are at 47% now either vegas dont care or their just bad at predicting games or theirs something else we dont know about to it
                                    Comment
                                    • bnaid8
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 01-25-10
                                      • 61

                                      #19
                                      I just can't get myself to like the Magic. I know they have a nice record but any team that has a selfish inconsistent jump shooter like Vince Carter who thinks he should still be putting up shots like he is a top 10 player then they have a chance to play poorly on any given night
                                      Comment
                                      • NYSportsGuy210
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-07-09
                                        • 11347

                                        #20
                                        Just play a teaser on Bodog like I did.....two games paying 1 to 1.1....last night I got Orlando (-3.5) and Dallas (-.5).
                                        Comment
                                        • pats3peat
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-23-05
                                          • 1163

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by krazey47409
                                          i have just reviewed my data starting from dec 29 09 on line movement on spreads of at least 5 points and with a min 2 point upward movement and this is the results

                                          i am currnetly reviewing past line movements jazz went from -8 to -10 and pushed couple nights ago. on jan 30 new orleans went from +5 to +7.5 with the public on the opposite side and new orleans coverd on. jan 23 the public was on hornets then nuggets then public closed on hornets.nuggets were -9.5 and went to -12 and did not cover vs the hornets. on jan 20 majic were -10 and went to -12 and covered vs the pacers. on jan 9 pacers opened +9 with public not on them went to +11 and covered. on jan 3 utah started -5 went to -7.5 and did not cover

                                          as you can see this research heavily favors the hornets the past two times they were dogs with this type of movement they covered and 5 out of the last 6 times this type of line movement occured the dog covered except once with the majic who covered vs pacers im on hornets
                                          good shit man... nice

                                          Originally posted by kingsr
                                          Take Magic to win by under 10.5 +170
                                          pretty sweet... where did you get this @?

                                          Originally posted by krazey47409
                                          i dont know why the books would do this if they think hornets will cover this movement made betters bet on hornets they are at 47% now either vegas dont care or their just bad at predicting games or theirs something else we dont know about to it
                                          agree totally, i have no idea what they are thinking.. were they not getting enough bets at +8.5 - its just not normal
                                          youd think the smart sharps be slammin new orleans to not increase any more than 8.5...
                                          Comment
                                          • pats3peat
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-23-05
                                            • 1163

                                            #22
                                            ya im playing Spurs +7.5, hornets +13.5 sbrbook Lol
                                            Comment
                                            • Mac4Lyfe
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-04-09
                                              • 48383

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by cinaj05
                                              I see a probability NOH will this SU because of super bowl motivation.
                                              WTF??? Is Drew Brees playing PG tonight? This is the craziest shit I've heard in a LONG time
                                              Comment
                                              • Crayzee
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 4945

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by gizmo2431
                                                I like New Orleans to cover, but overall the game is a no play for me because if I was from New Orleans I would have been partying last night after the Superbowl. No action.
                                                the frikking nba players ant gonna party because the football team won
                                                Comment
                                                • pats3peat
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-23-05
                                                  • 1163

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Crayzee
                                                  the frikking nba players ant gonna party because the football team won
                                                  hey maybe, i thought of that for a second but i iagree, they have to be too disclipined to think about the game
                                                  prob half the team arent even saints fans
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pats3peat
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-23-05
                                                    • 1163

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by cinaj05
                                                    I see a probability NOH will this SU because of super bowl motivation.
                                                    Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                                    WTF??? Is Drew Brees playing PG tonight? This is the craziest shit I've heard in a LONG time
                                                    Comment
                                                    • AaronTheGambler
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 01-25-10
                                                      • 81

                                                      #27
                                                      to let us middle it
                                                      Comment
                                                      • suicidekings
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                        • 9962

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by krazey47409
                                                        i dont know why the books would do this if they think hornets will cover this movement made betters bet on hornets they are at 47% now either vegas dont care or their just bad at predicting games or theirs something else we dont know about to it
                                                        I think we're probably overestimating how much the books care about individual games like this one. It's not a high profile game, and the simplest solution is most likely the correct one in this case. The books just wanted to even out the betting to guarantee their profit from the vig. Simple as that...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • easyaxess
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 03-26-07
                                                          • 164

                                                          #29
                                                          HAHAHA!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pats3peat
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-23-05
                                                            • 1163

                                                            #30
                                                            lookin good LOL (no jinx). wouldnt have guessed this start haha ... 48-42 hornets
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Noles506
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 01-28-10
                                                              • 38

                                                              #31
                                                              damn, they were up big, now its 77-73...aw well, still up by 14 or so as far as betting...I even took another bet with New Orleans as a teaser at 13.5.

                                                              Good Luck
                                                              Comment
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