Miami Heat +1.5

[THEGREAT30]

I just noticed I was given 10 pts for this thread as a blog...LOL!! I am long winded! I wasn't trying to do this for points. I was entertaining myself. 10pts=$1 dolllar. WHOOHOOO BABY! Im rich. At that rate I was making $4 an hour. Cool, I might do more. I want to get back into the good graces of Willie Bee and SBR. In the beginning I was hanging out in PT with some unseemly charaters and getting infractions almost daily..LOL!!

You sure you didn't post this as a blog on your page?

[lyon804]

Yes, he is. However, he has only been upgraded to questionable at this point. If he does play I would imagine he sees limited action, especially considering how well Jawad Williams has been playing.

The Cavs should go small early and often tonight. Miami gives them trouble if Beasley and O'Neal are hitting their open shots. However, a small lineup with Varejao at center coupled with Lebron, Williams, Gibson, and Parker should give Miami fits. Mike Brown never seems to go small often enough though.

Yea, I am sure there are easier bets tonite, but some reason I am drawn to this game. Not to long ago Cavs and Heat played some low scoring games. Last game was 111-104 Cavs and Mo Willie was on fire. Miami has been playing some lock down D At home recenty. I think the under of 190 is value. I know that is low, but these teams have played 86-81 games in the past.

[AzNDooM]

So many valid points here, my Model has Cleveland Cavaliers winning by 4 pts, however my model doesnt calculate for injuries and (Mo Williams / Delonte West both are key players) and current/healthy form, which Miami at the moment is in.

Thus, this game is going to be tough to call, would suggest a no play however current trends show CLE will take this game as MIA shows too much inconsistency. CLE a whomping 7-1 SU overall, but 3-10 SU when on road to Miami. Thus personally, Miami looks to be the play here as per what Spreadsniper said.

[lyon804]

So many valid points here, my Model has Cleveland Cavaliers winning by 4 pts, however my model doesnt calculate for injuries and (Mo Williams / Delonte West both are key players) and current/healthy form, which Miami at the moment is in.

Thus, this game is going to be tough to call, would suggest a no play however current trends show CLE will take this game as MIA shows too much inconsistency. CLE a whomping 7-1 SU overall, but 3-10 SU when on road to Miami. Thus personally, Miami looks to be the play here as per what Spreadsniper said.

I like the under the best. I am not playing the Heat as of now. I have booked the under.

The play of the day for me is Orlando/Memphis under 203

[whatsgood5]

Im all over the Heat in this one

[AzNDooM]

I like the under the best. I am not playing the Heat as of now. I have booked the under.

The play of the day for me is Orlando/Memphis under 203

How confident are you on the ORL/MEM under 203 play? and how many UN u putting down? I usually follow your picks, but I threw it out cause of my stats model. I ruled it out cause it was too close of a call as what the bookies have set the O/U total to (my model had it at 202).

Looks like a good play but MEM at home can put up points. Just hope this is a repeat style of OKC vs MEM when the total barely scratch 170.

[lyon804]

How confident are you on the ORL/MEM under 203 play? and how many UN u putting down? I usually follow your picks, but I threw it out cause of my stats model. I ruled it out cause it was too close of a call as what the bookies have set the O/U total to (my model had it at 202).

Looks like a good play but MEM at home can put up points. Just hope this is a repeat style of OKC vs MEM when the total barely scratch 170.

I feel pretty confident it goes under, but I have picked many losers in my time I was confident in as well. What makes me more confident is the current trend in this series and the current road play by the Majic and the current home play by the Grizzlies. True the Grizz can score in bunches, but have not being doing so as of late at home against 'better teams'. The Grizz has been winning with defense at home as of late against better teams. Anything can happen. If Orlando is hot with the 3's they might take the total out, but otherwise I like the under here. Also, last but not least my favorite referee is calling this game.... Dick Bavetta.. he is a under machine on the year 7-23 O/U and 2-12 O/U when posted total is between 195-204.5. Not a stats guy so much myself, but those are hard to overlook. Also Orlando's last 5 road games in Memphis have gone under posted total.What is really beautiful too me is the line movement here. This total shot up to 205 earlier and has moved back to the opener. Too me that is a bullish sign for the under..


Anyways, I booked the following

Orlando/Memphis under 203.5
Cleveland/Miami under 190
Atlanta/Houston under 197.5

I like playing unders as you see. I think at worst I go 2-1 with these picks..yet i have felt like this before and went 0-ffer..

[bachngocduong]

i on Miami Pk hope i got =1

[lyon804]

Tim Donagay, or whatever that ref was that got cought gambling on games... In his book he said that Dick Bavetta was a master at dictating pace in games... Might be something to that with so many of his games going under. I have been watching him all season and playing unders in all his games for the last 6-7 weeks. Not walking away from the cash cow until I start getting stung repeatedly.

[AzNDooM]

I feel pretty confident it goes under, but I have picked many losers in my time I was confident in as well. What makes me more confident is the current trend in this series and the current road play by the Majic and the current home play by the Grizzlies. True the Grizz can score in bunches, but have not being doing so as of late at home against 'better teams'. The Grizz has been winning with defense at home as of late against better teams. Anything can happen. If Orlando is hot with the 3's they might take the total out, but otherwise I like the under here. Also, last but not least my favorite referee is calling this game.... Dick Bavetta.. he is a under machine on the year 7-23 O/U and 2-12 O/U when posted total is between 195-204.5. Not a stats guy so much myself, but those are hard to overlook. Also Orlando's last 5 road games in Memphis have gone under posted total.What is really beautiful too me is the line movement here. This total shot up to 205 earlier and has moved back to the opener. Too me that is a bullish sign for the under..


Anyways, I booked the following

Orlando/Memphis under 203.5
Cleveland/Miami under 190
Atlanta/Houston under 197.5

I like playing unders as you see. I think at worst I go 2-1 with these picks..yet i have felt like this before and went 0-ffer..

Guess you take after LT Profits as he likes UNDERS as well. Thanks for your input, where did you get the ref stats? Very interesting and may add that figure to my model as it is something not to be overlooked. (means he lets players play, no fouls etc..) Ill be taking 3U following your analysis. Thanks for the update, just pray that the 3's miss in Orlando. I agree with you that they arent the same as last year where they were buring 3's at i think was 33.3% shooting from the arc, but this year is clearly a bit different. I think Vince Carter has messed up there chemistry, however they are league leaders in three's at 10.3.

[SpreadSniper]

Looks like a good play but MEM at home can put up points. Just hope this is a repeat style of OKC vs MEM when the total barely scratch 170.

I have a good feeling this game will be similar to the total in that game.

[lyon804]

Guess you take after LT Profits as he likes UNDERS as well. Thanks for your input, where did you get the ref stats? Very interesting and may add that figure to my model as it is something not to be overlooked. (means he lets players play, no fouls etc..) Ill be taking 3U following your analysis. Thanks for the update, just pray that the 3's miss in Orlando. I agree with you that they arent the same as last year where they were buring 3's at i think was 33.3% shooting from the arc, but this year is clearly a bit different. I think Vince Carter has messed up there chemistry, however they are league leaders in three's at 10.3.

LOL!! Come on now!! I might be a little bit better than LT Profits. I sure as hell don't tout either. I like LT though. He is a good guy and friendly. To be honest with you I do like playing unders, but I do not play totals exclusively. I sometimes do not play a total for days at a time. I am just drawn to the totals today. The sides feel more like a crapshot to me today. I have many leans and opinions on sides, but nothing concrete at the moment.

I like to many +1 and -1's today.. That's not usually a good thing.

[lyon804]

Guess you take after LT Profits as he likes UNDERS as well. Thanks for your input, where did you get the ref stats? Very interesting and may add that figure to my model as it is something not to be overlooked. (means he lets players play, no fouls etc..) Ill be taking 3U following your analysis. Thanks for the update, just pray that the 3's miss in Orlando. I agree with you that they arent the same as last year where they were buring 3's at i think was 33.3% shooting from the arc, but this year is clearly a bit different. I think Vince Carter has messed up there chemistry, however they are league leaders in three's at 10.3.

I forgot to answer your other question. I get my refs statistics at Covers.com. I am playing the listed totals for 3U a piece except for memphis I got 5U on that one.

Covers.com click on NBA an ref matchups.