Miami Heat +1.5

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  • lyon804
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-09
    • 6526

    #1
    Miami Heat +1.5
    The Heat will be hosting the Cavs on Monday. The two clubs last met 11/12/2009 at Miami and the Cavs took that game 111-104. I remember the game well I watched it on TNT. I took Miami +1 and lost of course. While watching the game I couldn't help, but think Miami might of had a chance in that game if Mo Williams hadn't knocked down so many 3's...These wasn't any 3's either... They were timely and rally killers to the Heat as he was 5/7 from distance in that game.The Heat was basically in the hole the entire game, but evertime they pulled within 2 or 3 pts... BAM!!!! Mo Williams 3. Well, Mo Williams won't be hitting any 3's come Monday. Now, I realize all this information is semi-useless as all games are different and different players step up each game. We all know what Lebron is gonna do and we all know what Wade is gonna do.

    What is interesting is the line... Cleveland -1.5..come on?? Who here doesn't think Cleveland is a better team?? Now, I know this is a road game, but still. What I am about to say is controversial to some, but the books are wanting Cleveland action here. For all those that think the books are in business just to make the vig this should serve as evidence this is not true. The books could have made Cleveland 3-4.5 favs and still got all the Cleveland action they wanted, but they decide to make them only -1.5.. Now, I know we see this everyday and all week amongst many matchups.. This is nothing new here.

    Miami has been playing a little better basketball definsively at home lately holding 3 of last 4 opponents to under 90pts and the Atlanta Hawks could only muster 75 pts against them in a loss. Now, I realize they have done this against opponents such as: Indiana,Sacramento, and Atlanta, but still worth noting.

    Watch the line all day. The Pinny opener was -1.5 -105 and now is -1.5 +102 with 71% of the public on Cleveland already and they want more?? So currently the books are gonna pay you to take Cleveland. The last time I thought like this and took Miami and lost. Miami has lost 3 in a row to Cleveland. I am looking for a different outcome on Monday. Lebron and company have been partying In Miami since last nite and will probably over look a Heat squad looking for some respect. The books are not scared of Miami +1.5 why should I be??

    Anybody that has taken the time to read my long novel...please add any comments or insight. Will not be offended if your viewpoint is different.
  • sweetjones55
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-07-09
    • 5257

    #2
    Originally posted by lyon804
    The Heat will be hosting the Cavs on Monday. The two clubs last met 11/12/2009 at Miami and the Cavs took that game 111-104. I remember the game well I watched it on TNT. I took Miami +1 and lost of course. While watching the game I couldn't help, but think Miami might of had a chance in that game if Mo Williams hadn't knocked down so many 3's...These wasn't any 3's either... They were timely and rally killers to the Heat as he was 5/7 from distance in that game.The Heat was basically in the hole the entire game, but evertime they pulled within 2 or 3 pts... BAM!!!! Mo Williams 3. Well, Mo Williams won't be hitting any 3's come Monday. Now, I realize all this information is semi-useless as all games are different and different players step up each game. We all know what Lebron is gonna do and we all know what Wade is gonna do.

    What is interesting is the line... Cleveland -1.5..come on?? Who here doesn't think Cleveland is a better team?? Now, I know this is a road game, but still. What I am about to say is controversial to some, but the books are wanting Cleveland action here. For all those that think the books are in business just to make the vig this should serve as evidence this is not true. The books could have made Cleveland 3-4.5 favs and still got all the Cleveland action they wanted, but they decide to make them only -1.5.. Now, I know we see this everyday and all week amongst many matchups.. This is nothing new here.

    Miami has been playing a little better basketball definsively at home lately holding 3 of last 4 opponents to under 90pts and the Atlanta Hawks could only muster 75 pts against them in a loss. Now, I realize they have done this against opponents such as: Indiana,Sacramento, and Atlanta, but still worth noting.

    Watch the line all day. The Pinny opener was -1.5 -105 and now is -1.5 +102 with 71% of the public on Cleveland already and they want more?? So currently the books are gonna pay you to take Cleveland. The last time I thought like this and took Miami and lost. Miami has lost 3 in a row to Cleveland. I am looking for a different outcome on Monday. Lebron and company have been partying In Miami since last nite and will probably over look a Heat squad looking for some respect. The books are not scared of Miami +1.5 why should I be??

    Anybody that has taken the time to read my long novel...please add any comments or insight. Will not be offended if your viewpoint is different.
    I don't. Cleveland is missing Mo Williams, their all-star point guard, and Delonte West ,his very good back up. If anything I think the teams are matched up pretty evenly tommrow night and with Miami at home and revenge the value is on the Heat.
    Scared money don't make money

    182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
    37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
    Comment
    • Vesuvius
      SBR MVP
      • 02-19-08
      • 3886

      #3
      I was a sucker and jumped on Cleveland -1.5
      Comment
      • sportsguy04
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-21-08
        • 11885

        #4
        Love Miami + any points here. Lebron vs. D-wade.
        Comment
        • SwisherSweet420
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-18-10
          • 922

          #5
          The reason they opened it so low is because delonte west is questionable. If shaq plays decent and lebron dominates as he usually does they will cover. I agree they could have came out with a 4 point favorite but on the road is already 3 and 2 key injuries is a few ticks of the board.
          sbr
          Comment
          • mkasad23
            SBR MVP
            • 12-14-09
            • 2594

            #6
            love the heat moneyline no need for the points
            Comment
            • Wind gara
              SBR MVP
              • 11-06-09
              • 1515

              #7
              i really like the over on this game.

              but cavs could be the play . they are on fire and mia is fishy. the line is low cause west and mo wont play.

              the key here so far 75% of public is on cavs.

              what does that mean?
              Comment
              • lyon804
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-02-09
                • 6526

                #8
                Originally posted by Vesuvius
                I was a sucker and jumped on Cleveland -1.5
                Who is the real sucker?? I am always taking plays like Miami in this spot, but hey I lost last time in this spot and Cleveland backers won. Doesn't really mean your a sucker... IMO the books are taking a spot in this game... Now, I know some will argue up the wall with me and say books don't do that. Trust me.. Give Vegas some credit.. They are the best handicappers in the world. They know the matchups better than anyone and they also know public perception. Which is to say they could have made this Cleveland -4 and still got plenty of Cleveland money.

                Who knows? I will most likely bet Miami.
                Comment
                • SwisherSweet420
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 922

                  #9
                  Agreed they are deffinately they best cappers thats why they make the choose the spread and win a hefty profit. Opening cleveland at -4 would have got people jumping on Heat after their win 2 nights ago and the 2 key injuries including home court. Just a thought I took Cavs and I hope I wasnt one of those suckers.
                  sbr
                  Comment
                  • lyon804
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-02-09
                    • 6526

                    #10
                    Fellas, I think we all know West and Mo won't play. Cavs are still a better team IMO without both players. They are better with those players, but they beat the Lakers without MO and I said they would.
                    Comment
                    • sportsguy04
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-21-08
                      • 11885

                      #11
                      Cavs and Lebron are human. Miami actually has a better ATS record, believe it or not. Cavs lineup looks weak tommorrow with only Shaq and Lebron doing any damage. Im assuming Wade and Lebron will guard each other. Beasley is going to have a big night tommorrow night.

                      Miami: 98
                      Cavs: 92
                      Comment
                      • Kav
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-25-09
                        • 3281

                        #12
                        over is the play i think
                        Comment
                        • SwisherSweet420
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 922

                          #13
                          Yes and which is the reason I like the over for the game. Hopefully Cavs keep it close and take it for the win. It should be a good early game for tomm.
                          sbr
                          Comment
                          • lyon804
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-02-09
                            • 6526

                            #14
                            Originally posted by sportsguy04
                            Cavs and Lebron are human. Miami actually has a better ATS record, believe it or not. Cavs lineup looks weak tommorrow with only Shaq and Lebron doing any damage. Im assuming Wade and Lebron will guard each other. Beasley is going to have a big night tommorrow night.

                            Miami: 98
                            Cavs: 92
                            Good point. I am not really a mathups knowledge guy myself, but your right that guy has skills and he is long.
                            Comment
                            • sportsguy04
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-21-08
                              • 11885

                              #15
                              Also looking at the boxscore from their last game in November, Mr. Mo Williams had 25 points and torched Miami with the 3-ball going 5-7. Also FWIW Alston wasnt playing in this game at the time.
                              Comment
                              • Vesuvius
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-19-08
                                • 3886

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lyon804

                                Who is the real sucker?? I am always taking plays like Miami in this spot, but hey I lost last time in this spot and Cleveland backers won. Doesn't really mean your a sucker... IMO the books are taking a spot in this game... Now, I know some will argue up the wall with me and say books don't do that. Trust me.. Give Vegas some credit.. They are the best handicappers in the world. They know the matchups better than anyone and they also know public perception. Which is to say they could have made this Cleveland -4 and still got plenty of Cleveland money.

                                Who knows? I will most likely bet Miami.
                                True, I meant "sucker" as in betting a line that looks too good to be true. Yes, they do win too.
                                Comment
                                • SwisherSweet420
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 922

                                  #17
                                  Good points and hopefully Lebron will cover Wade, Shaq covers the key and the game goes OVER Cavs -2
                                  sbr
                                  Comment
                                  • sportsguy04
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-21-08
                                    • 11885

                                    #18
                                    I like the Under 190. Miami playing good D lately, and well we know the Cavs are a good defensive team. 98-90 Miami.
                                    Comment
                                    • lyon804
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 11-02-09
                                      • 6526

                                      #19
                                      Line is currently Miami -1 -102@Pinny. So a 2.5 pt shift since I posted this.
                                      Comment
                                      • Kav
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-25-09
                                        • 3281

                                        #20
                                        65% on cavs 35% on heat, and the line went from +1.5 to -1 heat...


                                        heat or no play it is.
                                        Comment
                                        • SpreadSniper
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-17-09
                                          • 6125

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Kav
                                          65% on cavs 35% on heat, and the line went from +1.5 to -1 heat...


                                          heat or no play it is.
                                          holly trap batman!
                                          Comment
                                          • lyon804
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-02-09
                                            • 6526

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Kav
                                            65% on cavs 35% on heat, and the line went from +1.5 to -1 heat...


                                            heat or no play it is.
                                            Starting to like the under too!
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              RLM at its finest
                                              Comment
                                              • THEGREAT30
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-04-08
                                                • 8970

                                                #24
                                                Heat will have better guards for this one, but Lebron is a egomaniac and will not miss this chance to show the he really is the one man show.
                                                Comment
                                                • lyon804
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-02-09
                                                  • 6526

                                                  #25
                                                  I just noticed I was given 10 pts for this thread as a blog...LOL!! I am long winded! I wasn't trying to do this for points. I was entertaining myself. 10pts=$1 dolllar. WHOOHOOO BABY! Im rich. At that rate I was making $4 an hour. Cool, I might do more. I want to get back into the good graces of Willie Bee and SBR. In the beginning I was hanging out in PT with some unseemly charaters and getting infractions almost daily..LOL!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • zoukakos
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 12-09-09
                                                    • 261

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by lyon804



                                                    The books are not scared of Miami +1.5 why should I be??
                                                    I like your attitude, i was thinking of Cavs before this sentece, but now NO BET for me thanks lyon
                                                    sbr
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Wilforth
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 05-10-08
                                                      • 16309

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by THEGREAT30
                                                      ... but Lebron is a egomaniac and will not miss this chance to show the he really is the one man show.
                                                      Forget it. The outcome of this game has been resolved!

                                                      Miami -1.5
                                                      Comment
                                                      • lyon804
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-02-09
                                                        • 6526

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by zoukakos
                                                        I like your attitude, i was thinking of Cavs before this sentece, but now NO BET for me thanks lyon
                                                        keep in mind the last time I used this way of thinking it lost. Besides it just my opinions. I was bored and wanted to write late last nite.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jjgold
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 07-20-05
                                                          • 388179

                                                          #29
                                                          James is just saw tough it is hard to bet against him against an average team like Miami and he will play hard tonight because road game and shorthanded. James usually beats teams 1 vs 5 and see no reason he will not do again.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • lyon804
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 11-02-09
                                                            • 6526

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by jjgold
                                                            James is just saw tough it is hard to bet against him against an average team like Miami and he will play hard tonight because road game and shorthanded. James usually beats teams 1 vs 5 and see no reason he will not do again.
                                                            Like your way of thinking JJ GOLD
                                                            Comment
                                                            • williams22
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 09-19-08
                                                              • 6134

                                                              #31
                                                              Looks like Jamario Moon may play tonight. Still not confirmed.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • lyon804
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-02-09
                                                                • 6526

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by williams22
                                                                Looks like Jamario Moon may play tonight. Still not confirmed.
                                                                That would be great. I am starting to lean more towards the under and he is a defensive wiz isn't he? Anyways, I have not made any plays regarding this game. The under feels better.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • williams22
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 09-19-08
                                                                  • 6134

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by lyon804
                                                                  That would be great. I am starting to lean more towards the under and he is a defensive wiz isn't he? Anyways, I have not made any plays regarding this game. The under feels better.
                                                                  Yes, he is. However, he has only been upgraded to questionable at this point. If he does play I would imagine he sees limited action, especially considering how well Jawad Williams has been playing.

                                                                  The Cavs should go small early and often tonight. Miami gives them trouble if Beasley and O'Neal are hitting their open shots. However, a small lineup with Varejao at center coupled with Lebron, Williams, Gibson, and Parker should give Miami fits. Mike Brown never seems to go small often enough though.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jdhender
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-18-09
                                                                    • 866

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I like the under here
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Busterflywheel
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-13-09
                                                                      • 3991

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Nice write up but personally..the heat is way to damn inconsistent for me..never know which Heat will show..
                                                                      Comment
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