Lakerboy NBA thread for rest of Season until playoffs end

[secret007]

Congrats LB.. Celtics slept yet again on the second half, should have gone with under.. O well..

[I am Happy]

Great night LB! Excellent job with management of in-game lines. Thank you for your outstanding plays!

[MidgetTossers]

man it feels good to make money....cant wait for tomorrow!!!

[chrislau86]

man it feels good to make money....cant wait for tomorrow!!!

Good night for us all thanks to LB

[MidgetTossers]

Good night for us all thanks to LB

you got that right bro...

[lakerboy]

You guys know that you are minions and that some guys on this site laugh at you for following me cause they have better plays to offer but never post them or are buried

[No coincidences]

You guys know that you are minions and that some guys on this site laugh at you for following me cause they have better plays to offer but never post them or are buried

There are a lot of great cappers on this site. You, Mex, Paco, Durrr, NFLGuru, Dexter, Laker_Crazy, etc., etc., etc. I think it's the thrill of your last-minute picks that gets all of the attention, but let's be honest: people would be foolish to not use all of the board's vast resources, and compare and contrast picks instead of just blindly following one poster.

[lyon804]

You guys know that you are minions and that some guys on this site laugh at you for following me cause they have better plays to offer but never post them or are buried

It does seem things have slowed down around this forum. Seems like there are not near as many guys keeping up there threads. This is the time of the year the creme rises to the top and tonite was a gift

[lyon804]

There are a lot of great cappers on this site. You, Mex, Paco, Durrr, NFLGuru, Dexter, Laker_Crazy, etc., etc., etc. I think it's the thrill of your last-minute picks that gets all of the attention, but let's be honest: people would be foolish to not use all of the board's vast resources, and compare and contrast picks instead of just blindly following one poster.

LOL.. You use great a little lightly don't you? Half those buffons you mentioned have never cashed a dime out in there lives

[lakerboy]

There are a lot of great cappers on this site. You, Mex, Paco, Durrr, NFLGuru, Dexter, Laker_Crazy, etc., etc., etc. I think it's the thrill of your last-minute picks that gets all of the attention, but let's be honest: people would be foolish to not use all of the board's vast resources, and compare and contrast picks instead of just blindly following one poster.

NFL guru got banned
Durrr hasnt posted in a while
LAker crazy is nowhere to be found maybe busy to post

[No coincidences]

NFL guru got banned
Durrr hasnt posted in a while
LAker crazy is nowhere to be found maybe busy to post

Why was Guru banned?

And yeah, where's Durrr?

LC seems to go on hiatuses from time to time.

[No coincidences]

LOL.. You use great a little lightly don't you? Half those buffons you mentioned have never cashed a dime out in there lives

Like who?

[lakerboy]

Why was Guru banned?- tried to go tout

And yeah, where's Durrr?- ask him - pm him

LC seems to go on hiatuses from time to time.

no such thing as a hiatus- its called busy with work or buried

[mlb]

I still can't believe people complain when they tail someone and that person loses.... Boone is forcing them to play them and there's no need for controversy or starting any talk about a posters failures... If your on their thread instead of your own they are either doing something right or your plays suck and u no longer post ... Simple

[bluegg]

props to you LB for doing this almost every night

[TGoat]

I still can't believe people complain when they tail someone and that person loses....

I've got a good story about tailing people. I read the Jerry Bus autobiography many years ago, but I could only remember two things from the book.

I was playing in a poker tournament in LA with Jerry one day, we got into a conversation, and I mentioned those two things. One of them is relevant here.

He told the story of how one of his employees loved to bet sports. So he had this employee write down all of his plays for him. Flattered, he did as he was asked. Jerry then proceeded to fade every one of his plays and had a very good year.

The moral of this story is that 95% of the handicappers in the world should write down their plays every day and then go the other way. They might not win and they might not lose, but I would be willing to bet that there would be more winners than losers.

[lyon804]

I've got a good story about tailing people. I read the Jerry Bus autobiography many years ago, but I could only remember two things from the book.

I was playing in a poker tournament in LA with Jerry one day, we got into a conversation, and I mentioned those two things. One of them is relevant here.

He told the story of how one of his employees loved to bet sports. So he had this employee write down all of his plays for him. Flattered, he did as he was asked. Jerry then proceeded to fade every one of his plays and had a very good year.

The moral of this story is that 95% of the handicappers in the world should write down their plays every day and then go the other way. They might not win and they might not lose, but I would be willing to bet that there would be more winners than losers.

Alot of truth to that TGoat.. I was a perennial loser in the the first few years, but 5 or 6 yrs ago I thought... Damn, I suck I should just fade myself. It takes time to perfect it, but in time you still wear your public hat, yet you find angles to bet against your conventional wisom and with that in time you learn the fine art of this craft. Bascially you can train yourself over time to break the conventional wisdom cycle and start to learn some of the finer aspects of what it takes to ink out a profit.

Once you really have a fine understanding of everything you need to know all you really have to do is bet outside of your comfort zone and you can get to that 55,56,57% winners long term and with strong money management you know how to pick your spots when opportunites arise.

I am gonna toot my own horn here... There are many in this world who may beat me when it comes to win% but it would be hard to find anybody that knows how to flat out win $$ like I do.. That is to say... I get my big plays right

[lyon804]

Tgoat, Basically I just said in around about way... Winning percentage is overrated right?? I see you make reference to playing poker a few times. This game is not much different than poker. In poker you can sit out a casino for 6 hours and win like 2 hands and walk out with thousands right? I know because I have done it. I play tight in poker, nuts and bolts and just wait to lay in the weeds and trap people all day when I hit the nuts. That's when I want to get all my money in is when I have the best of it. Sure I get bluffed off small pots all day because I can be bullied and walked over... Funny thing nobody is laughing when I leave the table after 6 hours... If I can just get 1 or 2 hands a nite I am money.. Same thing with sports gambling.. Don't get me wrong I might make 25-35 plays a week in the NBA, but only 3-5 tops am I really hammering with some coin. At the end of the day my sportsbooks and locals are not asking me what my win % is. They just know most weeks they are on the wrong side of me. It might not be sexy and there is no majical formula for it, but when you find that nugget it's time to pounce

[knightof7]

I came back and realized I missed the in game plays...not that I care much as I'm up 10x for the night

[gwiz]

Tgoat, Basically I just said in around about way... Winning percentage is overrated right?? I see you make reference to playing poker a few times. This game is not much different than poker. In poker you can sit out a casino for 6 hours and win like 2 hands and walk out with thousands right? I know because I have done it. I play tight in poker, nuts and bolts and just wait to lay in the weeds and trap people all day when I hit the nuts. That's when I want to get all my money in is when I have the best of it. Sure I get bluffed off small pots all day because I can be bullied and walked over... Funny thing nobody is laughing when I leave the table after 6 hours... If I can just get 1 or 2 hands a nite I am money.. Same thing with sports gambling.. Don't get me wrong I might make 25-35 plays a week in the NBA, but only 3-5 tops am I really hammering with some coin. At the end of the day my sportsbooks and locals are not asking me what my win % is. They just know most weeks they are on the wrong side of me. It might not be sexy and there is no majical formula for it, but when you find that nugget it's time to pounce

this is good stuff

non self weighting strategy is not common knowledge and goes against conventional thinking

[gwiz]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/books/gambling/gambling-theory-topics/

Excerpt from the Book Gambling Theory and Other Topics: Non-Self-Weighting Strategies

What is the most important gambling concept that there is? Which concept separates the winners from the losers? What is the one idea that permeates all successful thinking and theorizing on the subject of gambling? In my opinion, it is the little-known statistical concept of self-weighting versus non-self-weighting gambling experiences.

[TGoat]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/books/gamb...theory-topics/

Excerpt from the Book Gambling Theory and Other Topics: Non-Self-Weighting Strategies

What is the most important gambling concept that there is? Which concept separates the winners from the losers? What is the one idea that permeates all successful thinking and theorizing on the subject of gambling? In my opinion, it is the little-known statistical concept of self-weighting versus non-self-weighting gambling experiences.

That's actually his best book. I've read it many times.

[vyomguy]

There are many in this world who may beat me when it comes to win% but it would be hard to find anybody that knows how to flat out win $$ like I do.. That is to say... I get my big plays right

[HCBoone]

Very good job on the night LB

[paco]

Keep making Dat money bro!!

[bobspicks]

Alot of truth to that TGoat.. I was a perennial loser in the the first few years, but 5 or 6 yrs ago I thought... Damn, I suck I should just fade myself. It takes time to perfect it, but in time you still wear your public hat, yet you find angles to bet against your conventional wisom and with that in time you learn the fine art of this craft. Bascially you can train yourself over time to break the conventional wisdom cycle and start to learn some of the finer aspects of what it takes to ink out a profit.

Once you really have a fine understanding of everything you need to know all you really have to do is bet outside of your comfort zone and you can get to that 55,56,57% winners long term and with strong money management you know how to pick your spots when opportunites arise.

I am gonna toot my own horn here... There are many in this world who may beat me when it comes to win% but it would be hard to find anybody that knows how to flat out win $$ like I do.. That is to say... I get my big plays right

Tgoat, Basically I just said in around about way... Winning percentage is overrated right?? I see you make reference to playing poker a few times. This game is not much different than poker. In poker you can sit out a casino for 6 hours and win like 2 hands and walk out with thousands right? I know because I have done it. I play tight in poker, nuts and bolts and just wait to lay in the weeds and trap people all day when I hit the nuts. That's when I want to get all my money in is when I have the best of it. Sure I get bluffed off small pots all day because I can be bullied and walked over... Funny thing nobody is laughing when I leave the table after 6 hours... If I can just get 1 or 2 hands a nite I am money.. Same thing with sports gambling.. Don't get me wrong I might make 25-35 plays a week in the NBA, but only 3-5 tops am I really hammering with some coin. At the end of the day my sportsbooks and locals are not asking me what my win % is. They just know most weeks they are on the wrong side of me. It might not be sexy and there is no majical formula for it, but when you find that nugget it's time to pounce

I must say that I normally see it the same way you do I can care less what win percentage I have it all comes down to the money I win!!!
I some how over the years developed a gift of finding the right spots and hit them extremely hard!!!
Most were against us on the cavs when they played the lakers and we collected love me some tnt basketball!!!
Last night the lakers scared the shit out of me in the 4th but the celtics held on to win outright.
It seems every time I put 10-25 units on something I win and when I put 50U I havent lost in about 3-4 years now.
Dont risk half my roll often even though I did 2 nights ago when Duke was down by 12 at the half.
Then I seen the line come out at duke-6 I couldn't help myself didnt see them losing this game and if they did,I didn't see them losing by 6...
This is so much like poker and when you find a great spot knock them dead baby every night theirs at least one!!!
Most of the time it's in the 2H I truly feel their is so much more value in 2nd half of betting!!!
Georgetown last night was down by 13 at the half almost risked half my roll again at -4 but ended up betting 20U!!!
I wouldnt of bet this game in the beginning but with them giving me a gift I couldn't pass it up!!!
Hope you guys can see the light because theirs lots of money to be made!!!

[Dexter]

LOL.. You use great a little lightly don't you? Half those buffons you mentioned have never cashed a dime out in there lives

hey now...i may be a buffon but ive hit a dime or 2 in my day..

lost a few as well

[Dexter]

The moral of this story is that 95% of the handicappers in the world should write down their plays every day and then go the other way. They might not win and they might not lose, but I would be willing to bet that there would be more winners than losers.

problem with trying that is that you'll always know in the back of your mind that you'll be fading yourself - thus causing you to make different decisions when it comes time to place your bets.

[mlb]

problem with trying that is that you'll always know in the back of your mind that you'll be fading yourself - thus causing you to make different decisions when it comes time to place your bets.

Exactly .,. Have tried it and you know u are doing it so it doesn't work that well at all

[Nick6570]

yeah

[Gary'sTerp2010]

Thanks for the picks last nite LB!!

[lyon804]

problem with trying that is that you'll always know in the back of your mind that you'll be fading yourself - thus causing you to make different decisions when it comes time to place your bets.

I know what you are saying there Dex, but it can be done. I am living proof of it. In the beginning doing this you will struggle to fade yourself. I was struggling already so I decided what the hell. At first you will change your mind and just confuse yourself like crazy. Me, I am no different the Joe Public other than to say I have been around the game a "few" years. I still see many things the same was as the "average" bettor, but now I choose to find angles that are in favor of taking the other team. Afterall you still are able to find those sweet spots that occur radomly over the course of the season were you make 60-70% of your profit. Most of the time I am just treading water and staying sharp so I am in sync with everything when the time arises. There is so much thinking and studying of line behavior that goes into also along with countless other things. I am not actually looking for a line move. What I am looking for is a line that holds up all day when you know the game is of interest and the public is heavy on the other side. So in actuality I am not looking for a move at all.That is were the big plays come and thousands of other things. I am not a mathmatician or statician. Most "experts" believe you have to be one of the other or both.

[TGoat]

It seems every time I put 10-25 units on something I win and when I put 50U I havent lost in about 3-4 years now.
Dont risk half my roll often even though I did 2 nights ago when Duke was down by 12 at the half.

Georgetown last night was down by 13 at the half almost risked half my roll again at -4 but ended up betting 20U!!!

Hope you guys can see the light because theirs lots of money to be made!!!

There is a lot of money to be made if you bet a lot of money. It's all relative.

If your bankroll is $100, and you bet $50 and lose, you would have to bet one half of your current bankroll two more times successfully to get to $112.5 and show a small profit.

Betting half your bankroll on a single outcome is just flirting with death.

[talnted]

congrats on the under last night lb

[joanapoker]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/books/gamb...theory-topics/

Excerpt from the Book Gambling Theory and Other Topics: Non-Self-Weighting Strategies

What is the most important gambling concept that there is? Which concept separates the winners from the losers? What is the one idea that permeates all successful thinking and theorizing on the subject of gambling? In my opinion, it is the little-known statistical concept of self-weighting versus non-self-weighting gambling experiences.

cool stuff gwiz

I'm always eager to learn, thx for the sharing! A must read book for sure!