*Rondo tackles the NBA*

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  • Rondo09
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-06-09
    • 109
    #1
    *Rondo tackles the NBA*
    Whats up folks. I'm back for a go around at the NBA.

    This will be a place to track my picks, as well as receive feedback and advice from vets out there. Feel free to chime in and let me know what you think.

    1/4

    Atlanta: -1.5
    ...Trends to note...
    Atlanta: 17-9 ATS as a favorite - they win games they are supposed to
    Atlanta: 6-1 ATS off an upset loss - they bounce back after bad defeats
    Atlanta: 8-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records - they get up for good teams

    Miami: 8-11 ATS in home games - this team has struggled to match expectations at home
    Miami: 6-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records - not very encouraging
    Tags: None
    • Rondo09
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-06-09
      • 109
      #2
      Here's a lean.....

      Chicago -2.5
      Why?

      Chicago has held 7 of their last 8 opponents to under 42% FG. In those 7 games, they are 6-1.

      Since November 27th, Oklahoma City has been held under 45% FG a total of 7 times. In those games, they are 1-6.

      In Chicago's last 9 games, they have held 8 opponents under 100 points.

      Since November 27th, Oklahoma City is 2-7 in games where they score under 100.
        Comment
        • Jstinson12
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-03-10
          • 20
          #3
          whats ur take on a bulls/jazz/clippers parlay...maybe even atl on the ML
            Comment
            • Rondo09
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-06-09
              • 109
              #4
              Just writing down some notes....

              Utah shoots better at home (51%) than any team in the NBA. New Orleans has the worst road defense (51%) in the NBA.

              All signs point to a big offensive game for Utah.

              WHEN Utah has shot over 50% since November 26th, they are 7-2 ATS. In that same span, New Orleans is 2-4 ATS when allowing teams to shoot over 50%.

              Utah's defense at home isnt very good, either, however. They are 17th in the NBA in Opp FG% when playing at home. Perhaps the OVER at 197 is worth a look?

              On a final note, Utah is 6-1 ATS vs. New Orleans in the last 3 years, and 4-0 ATS at home. Deron Williams generally plays very well against Chris Paul.
                Comment
                • Rondo09
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 09-06-09
                  • 109
                  #5
                  Final matchup of the day is Portland vs. LAC.

                  While the spread reflects Portland's injuries and public perception, no one knows how this team will do without LaMarcus Aldridge, and I tend to avoid betting on games with significant injuries. LA is tempting because Portland pretty much has no big guys who can score, and a lot of injuries on the wing as well, but games with missing players are hard to handicap, in my opinion.
                    Comment
                    • natelli1
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-01-08
                      • 251
                      #6
                      Hawks at Heat - The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since November 27, 2004 on the road after a home loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Heat are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since March 18, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 24, 2009 after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

                      Hornets at Jazz - The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 29, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since April 25, 2008 on the road when they won and covered as a favorite in each of their last two games. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since February 22, 2009 at home after a home loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.


                      just giving you some extra insight, trends are a good way to cap games, for the most part. good luck with your picks as i am leaning towards
                      MIA+2
                      Utah-8
                      Utah/NOR over 197
                        Comment
                        • Rondo09
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 09-06-09
                          • 109
                          #7
                          Originally posted by natelli1
                          Hawks at Heat - The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since November 27, 2004 on the road after a home loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Heat are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since March 18, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 24, 2009 after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

                          Hornets at Jazz - The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 29, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since April 25, 2008 on the road when they won and covered as a favorite in each of their last two games. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since February 22, 2009 at home after a home loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.


                          just giving you some extra insight, trends are a good way to cap games, for the most part. good luck with your picks as i am leaning towards
                          MIA+2
                          Utah-8
                          Utah/NOR over 197
                          Trends can indeed be very insightful, but sometimes they can deceive as well, so I know what you mean.

                          Personally, I'm not a huge fan of spreads dating back more than a year or two. Roster composition has changed and results from 2001 seem wildly irrelevant to games in 2010.

                          Nice to see you like Utah and the over. Good luck.
                            Comment
                            • Rondo09
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 09-06-09
                              • 109
                              #8
                              Strong lean towards Utah -8, but my final card for the night is

                              1/4
                              Chicago - 2
                              Utah/NO over 196.5
                                Comment
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