Go Lakers. GLTA
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BOL everybody and see you at the game time
come on LakersComment -
Kobe will need at around 25 pts tonight.Comment -
Celtics are BEASTS.
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Curious to see if Expertcapper has come out with his 1st half play yet? Too early still?Comment -
I dont think Ex is even here right now. In his WNBA thread he said he's going to be out for a bit, so his play may come really late.Comment -
Good luck to everyone tonight on their plays.Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Credibility on SBR is built from picking winners, not great write ups. Hell I can go to ESPN and NBA.com and pick little pieces here and there to do my "own" pre-game write up. Like Paco said don't over analyze. Will team A beat team B by more than 5.5? If yes, then
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i wont be around til probably the 4th quarter cause i will be at little league but wanna wish everyone the best of luck tonight(except celtic backers) on their plays tonight!!..lakers win by 7...
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I am jumpin off the paco bandwaggin....it was certainly fun while it lasted though!!!!I think he is leaning towards LA tonight and I think the +6 is good. I also feel that +170 is a great bargin for what should be a heads up series. Good luck everyone!!Comment -
Hear ya Nick..... Anyhow, I have this game far too close to be able to lay the points with the LAKESHOW. Unfortunately I'll be against my main men Paco and LB, and, of course, the UNDER.
Best of luck to all. Can't wait for these FINALS!!!Comment -
Good luck guys, this is gonna be an interesting game for sure. Even though I'm a celtics fan, I'm betting LA -5.5, LA first quarter too. If Celtics win, I'll gladly fork over the money, if Lakers cover, the blow of celts not winning won't be as bad. If La wins but doesnt cover
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Good luck tonight fellas. Both teams can play D so I think under 191 is better. Should be a tight one with the rest they have gotten so going with the +6 as well.Comment -
Paco.... I cannot justify laying the this evening 5.5 points with The Lakahzzzz.... (OMG.... I cannot believe that it almost sounds like a CELTICS fan..... gag me with a SPOON)........MY PAL, I am going the otha way tonight! BEST OF LUCK... PACO, I have total respect for your capping abilities.... you da man!!!!!
Everyone good luck........ I feel like tonight's game is gonna be awesome......I cannot believe it's less than an hour from game time....Comment -
Good Luck Guys !!!!!!Comment -
Good LUCK! LAke show!!! lets get it!Comment -
Good luck LB, Paco, Shoe, Goat and everybody!!! Unless you're on the Celts...
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Lakers ML let's do this boys!!!Comment -
did lb make an official play yet?Comment -
THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS START TONIGHT!As promised, we're back to the baskets tonight with a look at key statistical indicators that will hopefully shed light on the Boston Celtics/Los Angeles Lakers championship showdown that begins tonight at the Staples Center.
LET'S SEE WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
Be sure to tune in early so you can see Jack Nicholson wave the green flag!
Through most of the playoffs we've been using regular season numbers in our previews. That didn't work out as well as hoped because both the Celtics and Lakers SIGNIFICANTLY kicked things up a notch in the postseason- Boston was a #4 seed after a lethargic regular season. They played like champs from the get-go in the Miami series, and never really slowed down. They were clearly the class of the East once the games mattered most, thanks largely to the big step forward taken this year by point guard Rajon Rondo.
- The Lakers were a #1 seed, but a "vulnerable" #1 because they limped to the finish line of the regular season...while teams like Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, and even Oklahoma City looked to be in better form. Sure, you could assume the Lakers would get things in gear for the postseason. Many weren't ready for HOW sharp they looked once in a groove.
BOSTON
4-1 series win over dangerous Miami
4-2 series win over league favorite Cleveland
4-2 series win over series favorite Orlando
That's a 12-5 record vs. teams led by Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard. It's easy to forget that many (including some on the NETWORK staff) thought Boston was going to be in big trouble vs. Miami. They not only destroyed Miami, they then went 8-4 against the supposed superpowers of the East. That includes four ROAD wins vs. the Cavs and Magic.
LOS ANGELES
4-2 series win over dangerous Oklahoma City
4-0 series won over talented Utah
4-2 series win over hot Phoenix
That's a 12-4 record against one of the toughest sequences a #1 seed has ever faced. Oklahoma City was much more like a #3-4 seed in terms of talent this year. You could argue they played the Lakers tougher than anybody in the West. Utah was in very good form entering the second round but couldn't win a game. Phoenix had its moments but couldn't maintain peak performance from its energetic bench.
No flukes here. No Cinderella's here either once you accept that Boston was just going through the motions in the regular season. It's the two best teams in the league playing their best ball of the season right now.
To this point, we're showing a slight edge for the Lakers. They're a half game better in the "playoff standings" with a 12-4 record against a 12-5 record. We'd have to consider giving them a "strength of schedule" edge to a slight degree too because Oklahoma City was a lot better than Miami...and because LeBron James wasn't quite at home strength. Throw in home court advantage for the series, and you can see why the Lakers are favored in Las Vegas.
Might as well run those numbers now:
Series Price: Lakers -180, Boston +160
Game One Odds: Lakers by 5½, total of 192
The series price has started to drift up. You may see -185 or -190 by the time you read this. Also, the prices could be swayed by reports on Rondo's balky back. If he isn't going to be at full strength, the Lakers become a bigger favorite to win the trophy.
Are those series and Game One prices justified? It's dangerous to draw conclusions off won-lost records. You regulars know we believe that DEFENSE AND REBOUNDING WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS! Let's see if there are clues in those key numbers that might help us get a better read on what's about to unfold.
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE ALLOWED IN PLAYOFFS
LA Lakers .437
Boston .438
Virtually identical here. These were two of the top three teams in the playoffs in this stat (only Orlando is better), so you can see why we emphasize defense so much. The Lakers are always much better defensively than people realize. And, that was true before Ron Artest joined the lineup. It's Boston's bread and butter.
TURNOVERS FORCED PER PLAYOFF GAME
Boston 16.4
LA Lakers 11.9
Boston has a big stat edge, but there were some extenuating circumstances. The Lakers had to face three straight elite point guards, while Boston was facing a couple of teams in Cleveland and Orlando who are turnover machines when they try to force the ball inside. LeBron James became pass-heavy too with his bad elbow, and he was constantly forcing bad passes in traffic. We'll give the edge to Boston here, but not by as much as those numbers would have you think.
PLAYOF REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE
LA Lakers .513
Boston .507
Again, the Lakers show up very well in a key stat. The media loves talking about Kobe and his clutchness. When they talk about Pau Gasol, it tends to be about how soft he is rather than his countless strengths as a world class star. We should note here though that we have a bit of a reversal of the turnover situation. Boston ran into rebounding juggernauts in Cleveland and Orlando, yet still broke 50/50 for the playoffs. The Lakers weren't playing those kind of bruisers out West. Close to a toss-up when it's all said and done, with both being very good in this key area.
Not much to separate the teams so far. We'd run some three-point shooting data in this spot normally. But, it's the same story there. Both teams have done well from long range. And, both REALLY did well in the stat considering they were facing three-point specialists Phoenix and Orlando in the last round. Strong long range shooting neutralized those potential danger zones. The Lakers made more per game (7.6 to 6.2), but played at a faster pace. We'll give the Lakers an edge here that's probably worth a couple of points per game.
And where does that leave us? A couple of points plus home court advantage (3-4 points) puts us on the Game One number. The legal betting markets see it the same way. The teams are very evenly matched in terms of defense and rebounding. A little more production from long range helps set the Lakers apart.
We will say this. Boston got VERY banged up in the Orlando series. This is an old team that's been rejuvenated by a youngster carrying a lot of the load on his back. If the youngster (Rondo) wears down...and everyone else plays old...than the Lakers should be a bigger favorite than we're seeing. If the rest did Rondo some good...he's enough of a pest to riddle the Lakers with penetration. The Lakers were vulnerable to strong point guard play in the earlier rounds, but had enough "other" edges that it didn't matter. They won't find "outscoring" their weakness so easy against the strong Boston defenseComment -
These are just stats playoffs are about matchup diagnosis. Each teams stats will adjust based on the opposing matchup. Therefore, much of these stats are irrelevant.
GL with all your plays tonight guys I need to go lock up my store I hope I don't miss the whole first quarterCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
LB - whats the play tonight?Comment -
anyone taking the lakers series at -190? thinkin about droppin 500 on itComment -
Lakers -5.5 (10x)Comment -
LA by 10....Comment -
GL with the action tonight.Comment -
lb are you getting in on the sbr special line lakers -1.5 -200Comment -
Let's do this bitches!!!! Game day hats on and prepared!!!
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in my face. That's why it's called just that. 
