Meaningless games v. Preseason games

[fearless]

I listen announcers from around the NBA on NBA audio league pass and I've noticed something interesting. Several announcers have commented that recent games have had a "preseason feel." Of course, all of these games have had something in common: they all involved teams that were out of the playoff hunt.

This got me to thinking: is there much of a difference between meaningless games and preseason games from a sports handicapping perspective?

I think it's relevant to consider that sportsbooks won't even take bets on preseason games. The reasons for that are obvious, imho.

But, all of this has me thinking, why would people be betting serious money on a game like the Celtics at Bucks? It's really just an exhibition game!

[The HG]

The difference is that these games do "count", so players care about their own stats. The team as a whole might not care about a win or a loss, but each player cares about his own stats.

And additionally, if you follow the teams reasonably closely, what they do with these last games can sometimes become clear, and can sometimes have good value if it is different from what they were doing for most of the year. A team might decide to play all young guys, and lose each game by DD in the name of experience. Or a team that had injuries that knows it's core next year will be the same might go on a end-season winning streak, in anticipation of next year and to make up for the dreariness of a losing season. Or a team might start scoring more or less than it is used to. In general, at these end times of the year in the NBA, I look for an averaging out of totals. A meaningless game with a total in the mid-180s, for instance, I would be leaning to the over with.

[fearless]

The difference is that these games do "count", so players care about their own stats. The team as a whole might not care about a win or a loss, but each player cares about his own stats.

And additionally, if you follow the teams reasonably closely, what they do with these last games can sometimes become clear, and can sometimes have good value if it is different from what they were doing for most of the year. A team might decide to play all young guys, and lose each game by DD in the name of experience. Or a team that had injuries that knows it's core next year will be the same might go on a end-season winning streak, in anticipation of next year and to make up for the dreariness of a losing season. Or a team might start scoring more or less than it is used to. In general, at these end times of the year in the NBA, I look for an averaging out of totals. A meaningless game with a total in the mid-180s, for instance, I would be leaning to the over with.

Thanks for that. Have you noticed any trends like you're talking about?