Roag's NBA Regular Season Thread

[RoagBettor]

Guys, I'm starting a new thread just for NBA discussion and plays so the other plays I make in my project thread don't get lost (and vice versa).

Looking ahead to Week 1 in the regular season, here is what I'm already thinking:

Day 1:

Celtics/Cavs - no play
Rockets/Blazers - no play

The obvious play for me this day is a 2 Team/5 Point Teaser, taking the Mavs and the Lakers who both should win easily.

Day 2:

3 Team/8 Point Teaser

Spurs
Thunder
Magic

Day 3:

Only 2 games and both tough matchups, probably no play or a slight lean to playing both home teams with a 2/5 teaser (depends on how Portland looks in their first game).

Day 4: Best Day of Week 1! Teaser and Parlay Feast!

3 Team/8 Point Teaser

Celtics (they are going to destroy the Bulls with a healthy KG. The C's have long memories and that playoff throttling they received at home from the Bulls is in their minds. Revenge is sweet.)
Jazz
Suns/Warriors OVER anything (less the 8 should be easy)

4 or 5 Team Parlay (I always buy 2 pts in the NBA, unlike the NFL )

Celtics
Suns/Warriors over
Jazz
Pacers
Hawks

These are just initial thoughts. Injuries and performances in the first games will influence the picks for the rest of the week. Also, I'll be looking closely at totals, as I expect defenses to be a little porous in the first week as guys get in "game shape". I rarely play unders, I like playing overs with the 8 pts in the teasers because there are always those OT games that kill you.

There is a lot of talent here at SBR for the NBA. If we stick to the system of playing mainly teams that are supposed to win easily, and take the 8 pts (or 5 pts in the 2 teamers sometimes), we'll make money. Throw in some obvious straight bets and a few parlays and it's going to be a great season.

Bring it on!!!

[TKainZero]

Best of luck!

NBA is your best area from what i hear.

[ztballer]

Can't wait mate. Had a blast discussing picks with the WNBA season. Did you make more during WNBA or NBA?

[RoagBettor]

I made about 90% of all my money in the last year on NBA and NCAA basketball.

[ztballer]

Looking
forward
to NBA reg
season. Also UCONN women ML all season

[sweetjones55]

Fade University of Miami basketball all year. Can't wait to start taking warriors overs @ home and cavs 1st quarters lol.

[RoagBettor]

I'm not sold on the Cavs with Shaq, need to see how they play their first few games.

[williams22]

I'm not sold on the Cavs with Shaq, need to see how they play their first few games.

Obviously I am biased towards my team, but the Cavs will be scary good with Shaq this year. I've watched every minute of their preseason games and he looking much more mobile than I expected. The Cavs have had discussion with the Suns training staff to make sure he stays healthy, and he also just began yoga classes for the first time in his career. Expect him to get many 4th quarters off as well. I think Cavs 1st quarter and 1st half plays will be a very good way to go this year. Roag, I agree though, don't touch the Cavs/Boston game.

On a different note, is it ok if I post my picks in this thread so we can discuss? Or would you rather I start my own NBA thread? Your call, I'm cool either way.

to making money!

[TrafficUB]

Hey road, i got a question, i like to think that im somewhat decent at NBA capping too, i just wanted to ask, how much money will you be starting with and how much do you bet per parlay/game/teaser, also if you don't mind me asking, roughly how much did ya make last season?

thanks mate

[Ace_of_Spades]

Yep, NBA is a good sport to bet on.

[ztballer]

Is
NBA easier to cap than WNBA? I found WNBA easy because of the small number of teams in the league but injury reports were last minute

[Ace_of_Spades]

I'd prefer to cap the NBA over WNBA. I guess the new refs may make the NBA alittle different this season. I interested to know if games a lower or high scoring or if more or less fouls are called.

[RoagBettor]

Hey road, i got a question, i like to think that im somewhat decent at NBA capping too, i just wanted to ask, how much money will you be starting with and how much do you bet per parlay/game/teaser, also if you don't mind me asking, roughly how much did ya make last season?

thanks mate

I'm using my whole roll for the NBA and NCAA basketball seasons. I will bet any sport, whatever can reach the project goal.

The NBA is easier to cap for me than WNBA because I have more games to choose from in my teasers. The key to hitting teasers is to have a lot of games going on. And once NCAA basketball starts it will be even better because you can combing NBA and NCAA in the 3 Team/8 Point Teasers.

[joanapoker]

Ace of spades are u portuguese? Falcao pic....FC Porto fan?

niiice

Roag

do u mind if we post our pic's here, instead of making a new thread?

cheers

[RoagBettor]

Anyone can post their picks (and pics) and analysis/thoughts here for NBA games. If you have something else (soccer, football, etc.) post it in my project thread.

Let's get it on!

[jay9170]

Ace of spades are u portuguese? Falcao pic....FC Porto fan?

niiice

Roag

do u mind if we post our pic's here, instead of making a new thread?

cheers

I would say just make this a thread with Roag's picks as the title of the thread suggests that.

[TrafficUB]

Thanks for answering my question roag, i have started to think that my money management has been really bad and i've been chasing way too much, therefore i need to relax and be patient with my bets, bet 4 to 5 % of my bankroll, not more, bet less, lose less, bet more, lose more or perhaps win more, but that doesn't happen to often :P

anyway, im here to wish you luck, we will be here to be on the picks with you, also, have you ever tried the JM system, buy 3 points, best of 3 series..?

[RoagBettor]

No JM system for me. BookF*cker only allows you to buy 2 points, and I don't like playing systems at all.

[TrafficUB]

oh i see, well his system apparantly was 59-1 last season, considering it was best of 3 series, not bad i guess, but my Bookmaker let's me buy up to 8 to 9 points usually under additional spread for the games, say it's -7 LA Lakers, i can probably get it at -1 or PK

[RoagBettor]

Yeah, but what kind of juice do you have to pay to get an extra 8 to 9 pts on a single game? To me it's not worth it, one loss on a C bet and you're done.

[TrafficUB]

yea, your right, odds are too bad to actually make some extra money, i like your style of parlays, go in small but win big, i'll make sure to follow ya, just not sure right now which one to choose :P

[RoagBettor]

I'm going to be very selective on my NBA parlays. I won't make any big plays until NCAA season starts. I've hit some nice 8 and 9 teamers between the 2, so with NBA only I'll be looking at 2-4 teamers.

[TrafficUB]

yea, cause if you have so many, i dunno what to think, but if you focus on a couple and are very confident, i think it's better in the long run, i just put a 25 dollars on Rangers/Edmonton/Dallas/Broncos/Angels/Dodges 25 to win 970, i doubt this will hit, but ya never know

[Wilforth]

Roag,

Even though it's preseason, what do you think of Hawks -5 at home vs. the Wizards?

[TrafficUB]

not bad, but i would not bet on spread on pre season, i took cavs at home vs the wizards and lost, wizards have arenas back, and are trying to shake off his rust, so he's been dominating, plus cutler and jamison and also they just got mike miller from the grizzlies who's preety good heh, so i would not bet on them no

[RoagBettor]

Roag,

Even though it's preseason, what do you think of Hawks -5 at home vs. the Wizards?

It's hard to say. If I was parlaying it I'd buy the 2 pts to get it to -3. We're in the home stretch, teams are running out of time to sell regular season tickets!

[Wilforth]

not bad, but i would not bet on spread on pre season, i took cavs at home vs the wizards and lost, wizards have arenas back, and are trying to shake off his rust, so he's been dominating, plus cutler and jamison and also they just got mike miller from the grizzlies who's preety good heh, so i would not bet on them no

Thanks. Pass.

[TrafficUB]

let's be patient fellas! only what 1 week left till tip off? i can't wait for the lines to come out!

[RoagBettor]

I laid out the scenario for next week in the first post of this thread. Nothing heavy the first few days, but we pound Friday night with 13 games to choose from.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Ace of spades are u portuguese? Falcao pic....FC Porto fan?

niiice

Roag

do u mind if we post our pic's here, instead of making a new thread?

cheers

Big fan, watched alot of his River Plate games. He won't last long at Porto though. I don't want him to leave for Madrid.

[mebaran]

Good luck this year Roag! By the way, do you have any past stats from last year's NBA season you could throw my way? Maybe a few weeks worth of your picks (if you still have them). You say NBA is probably your most profitable sport from last year, and I just want to get a taste of how you'll be betting in this thread. Feel free to PM me.

[darkenergy]

Good luck this season roag....I thought you switch the book already.
For day 1 I like UNDER Cavs/Celts (I think the line will be around 185-189), and Magic on day 2. I will ride magic and celtics for first dozen games I think (but no celts in the 1 game).
Last year someone post a link to a site keep track teams' stats by quarter, does anyone still have it handy....I lost mine due to recent pc crash.
Best of luck this new season everyone

[pockets89]

I too was wondering how you did last year roag as far as your picks went? I look forward to contributing to this thread and Roag's firstweek breakdown mirrored my thoughts almost exactly. This is my first season of nba capping so Im just trying to feel it out.

[Domestic]

Everyone seems pretty excited about this season and why not. I am looking forward to that Boston/Cavs game first up and I know it is probably foolish to play totals on the first day I think there is value in the under if I can get it at 188. I agree with you on the LA/Dallas Games, both looking pretty safe.
Best of luck this season, though I don't think you will need much luck if it is anything like last year.

[shantystar]

GL