Whats good fellas? Ive been messing around for a few years with modeling NBA in my free time, looking at numbers going back about 8 seasons, and hope I have something that nets a positive result. Im only going to be playing games in which there is a 3 point or higher discrepancy from my number to the listed line. Im assuming a blanket 3 point home court advantage across the board, some might disagree with that, but thats what Im rolling with. Nothing last night, but we have a few tonight. Ill post em up once I lock in the final card.
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OCTOBER 19th, 2022
INDIANA (+1, -110) vs Washington ($550-500)
MIAMI (-7, -110) vs Chicago ($550-$500)
UTAH (+7, -110) vs Denver ($550-$500)
PORTLAND (+3, -110) @ Sacramento ($550-$500)Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 2-2 (50.0%, -$100)
Neither game tonight fits unless there is some movement on the LA battle. Likely a night off.Comment -
OCTOBER 21st, 2022
WASHINGTON (-2, -110) vs Chicago ($550-$500)
CHARLOTTE (+7, -110) vs New Orleans ($550-$500)
NEW YORK (-7, -110) vs Detroit ($550-$500)
ATLANTA (-9, -110) vs Orlando ($550-$500)Comment -
OCTOBER 22nd, 2022
INDIANA (+1, -110) vs Detroit ($550-$500)
BOSTON (-8.5, -110) @ Orlando ($550-$500)
2022-23 RECORD: 4-3-1 (57.1%, +$350)Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 5-4-1 (55.6%, +$300)
Nothing met my criteria today, so just took the day off. Not forcing anything here.Comment -
Changed my mind. This line shifted a point and a half, and became a play late.
LA CLIPPERS (+1.5, -105) vs Phoenix ($525-$500)Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 5-5-1 (50.0%, -$225)
Clippers are definitely on the no bet list until Kawhi’s situation is more certain. When it was announced he was playing, I sure didn’t expect him to first enter the game down 18 points with 3 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. So they shouldnt be a play for anyone until he shows consistent, early minutes.
OCTOBER 24th, 2022
NEW YORK (-7.5, -110) vs Orlando ($550-$500)
UTAH (-2, -110) @ Houston ($550-$500)
PORTLAND (+5, -110) vs Denver ($550-$500)
Goodluck tonight gents!Comment -
Clippers was Just a Bad Bet. I knew Phoenix would Kill them. They were Rested and the Clippers had a Tough Game and had to Play Back to Back. I Like Your N.Y. Knicks Bet. I was looking at that one earlier. I am Probably going to Play it and Portland Plus 5 . I would Lean. It should go Down to the wire with the Points if Nothing else. Good Luck on Your PlaysComment -
Ya man, its not like Kawhi was making up 17 points. But he was +1 in his 20 minutes on the court. With Wall and Kawhi taking Saturday night off, and coming into this one with a few days rest, I totally expected both to play 30+ minutes, my cap called for it. Had I known he was only playin 3 mins in 1st half, I would have been on Phoenix. This is what makes NBA difficult. But your right, I need to see Clippers rotation consistently before they can be a play, so bad on my part.Comment -
007D….my model actually had Portland as a 1 point favorite, so that 6 point discrepancy was actually the largest one so far this year. The 2nd largest was the Pacers Saturday vs the Pistons, and they covered by quite a few.Comment -
I'm not saying anything about your Model. I Just thought that was a Platinum on Phoenix in that spot. But" thank you for sharing your picks. I Appreciate it. I Just Bet the N.Y.Knicks Game For $270. Let's GO!!Comment -
Oh you were Talking About Portland. I might go with that. Too! Nice" I thought you were still talking about the other Game. LET'S GOComment -
The Knicks Look Good. Keep it Up.Comment -
N.Y. Did it.. Hell yeaComment -
Portland as well in a 25 point blowout wn. 2-1 day, Ill take those all the time.Comment -
Portland. Hell yea. Good Job!Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 7-6-1 (53.8%, +$225)
OCTOBER 25th, 2022
WASHINGTON (-5.5, -110) vs Detroit ($550-$500)
NEW ORLEANS (+6, -110) vs Dallas ($550-$500)
PHOENIX (-1.5, -110) vs Golden St ($550-$500)
I was hoping my model would spit out one play on a light Tuesday, but it came out with three. Im not sure I agree, but it told me NOLA should be a Pick, even with Ingram, Zion and Hubert Jones out. I know, Im a little surprised, but Im trusting it. Goodluck to yall tonight.Comment -
LFG Pels….straight up winner. Wiz with a rocking chair winner too. Need Suns for a perfect night….lets get itComment -
2022-23 RECORD: 10-6-1 (62.5%, +$1,725)
Clean Sweep last night! Looks like Ill have 2 on deck for tonight, just waiting as I feel the lines could shift in my favor over the course of the day.Comment -
OCTOBER 26th 2022
MINNESOTA (-9, 110) vs San Antonio ($550-$500)
UTAH (-8, -110) vs Houston ($550-$500)
Dont love the Utah play, but my model has Utah at -11.5 based on Sengun and Fernando being out. Its gonna be alot of Boban and Garuba, and Vanderbilt/Olynyk/Markkanen should expose those guys. Maybe I talked myself into liking the play, lol
Goodluck tonight fellasComment -
Nice start to the season.
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Good luck. I think your Plays are Solid. 2-0 NightComment -
Ill take a 1-0-1 day. Kicking myself I didnt lock in Utah at -7 early in the day. I was hoping it would drop to -6.5 at any of my books and unfortunately it went the other way. Beating the closer is everything, and I just couldnt do it today. Onto the next one!Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 11-6-2 (64.7%, +$2,225)
OCTOBER 27th, 2022
BROOKLYN (+3, -110) vs Dallas ($550-$500)
Even with Harris and Morris out, my
model has Brooklyn as a 4.5 favorite, so all over this one. Goodluck tonight fellers!Comment -
Good Luck.. Get it..Comment -
2022-23 RECORD: 11-7-2 (61.1%, +$1,675)
Friggin Nets had that game under control late. KD or Kyrie couldnt knock down an open look. What you gonna do? Got a few tonight, post them up shortly.Comment -
OCTOBER 28th, 2022
BOSTON (-6.5, -110) vs Cleveland ($550-$500)
MILWAUKEE (-5.5, -115) vs New York ($575-$500)
SAN ANTONIO (+5, -110) vs Chicago ($550-$500)
UTAH (+8.5, -110) @ Denver ($550-$500)Comment -
This is where I stink. Day got busy yesterday, and I forget to post on my thread. Had Philly -2.5 and Milwaukee -5.5, both winners!!Comment
