Ugh, Lillard you little bastard 
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Howard gets ALL ball and a clean block = gets called for the foul. Now, boxing out, probably going to get hit with a technical. The home cooking is strong tonight
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Howard gets called for another bullshit foul. Something's fishy hereComment -
Ship Rockets 1H.Comment -
Have a safe vacation broComment -
4-2 yesterday, got 4 hours before plane, will try to research...
NBA Playoffs 2014: 41-28Comment -
Pretty easy card tonight:
1. Hawks 1H +3.5
2. Hawks +6.5
3. Grizzlies +9.0
4. Grizzlies Under 185.0
5. Clipshow -7.0
Peace all.Comment -
Safe travels LeetComment -
Thank you for all you do. Have a relaxing vacation, sir!Comment -
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SAT Sharp Action
The most amazing first round of NBA Playoff action in HISTORY will come to a close this weekend with FIVE dramatic Game Seven showdowns. Three of those are Saturday, a trio of finales we’ll discuss momentarily. We’ll be back with you Sunday to look at the other two (Brooklyn at Toronto, Dallas at San Antonio).
In today’s action, Indiana and Oklahoma City were staring elimination in the face back on Thursday Night, as superior seeds who HAD to win on the road to stay alive. Did they leave everything on the floor in that effort? The LA Clippers had a game-in-hand, knowing they could lose on the road and still clinch as a favorite. But, they’ve had so many distractions this week that they could be low on gas as well.
Let’s see how professional bettors (sharps) have been betting this Derby Day TRIFECTA since the lines first went up. We’ll take the games in tipoff order.
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: Indiana opened at -6, and was bet up to -6.5. We’ve told you often over the years in this feature that sharps bet favorites immediately if they prefer that side…knowing that the public almost always bets favorites closer to tipoff. But, sometimes an early move is simply “position-taking” in advance of public action. If sharps are absolutely convinced squares are going to like the favorite…they’ll lay the early number, but then come back over the top on the dog with the later number. Sources tell us that most of the move you see above involves that latter strategy. A handful of sharps did like Indiana at -6. But, most of that move is from position-takers planning to come back over the top on Atlanta +7 if the number gets that high. If not, they’ll accept +6.5.
The opening total of 186 has been bet down to 184.5. Old school sharps tend to be Unders from Game Five on in a series…and REALLY bet the Under in a Game Seven. Oddsmakers are aware of that, and dropped the opener from the last three numbers of 188, 186, and 189. So…there was a pre-opening adjustment from oddsmakers…but old-school sharps bet the Under anyway with both fists.
MEMPHIS AT OKLAHOMA CITY: Oklahoma City went up at -8. Then, it was announced that Zach Randolph would be suspended for Memphis because of a swing he took at a Thunder player back in Game Six. That lifted the line up to Oklahoma City -9. Sources tell us that was a case of sportsbooks adjusting to “news” rather than money. Oddsmakers believed squares would jump on OKC at -8 without Randolph. Sharps have been impressed with the Memphis defense in this series, and are looking to take the dog without Randolph at the best price they see. Maybe that will only be +9. Perhaps the public will push the number higher before tipoff and the Wise Guys will get +9.5 or +10.
The Over/Under has dropped from 185.5 to 184.5. Again, that’s a result of old-school money. And, it’s way below the totals we were seeing earlier in the series of 190 and 188. But, the loss of Randolph actually discouraged some Under bets. Memphis plays VERY slow when emphasizing Randolph in the offense. His absence may speed up proceedings. That kept this as only a 1-point move to the Under.
GOLDEN STATE AT LA CLIPPERS: Looks like we have a tug-of-war brewing between the LA Clippers -7 and Golden State +7.5. Sharps are taking the dog at +7.5. Squares (and a few sharps) are taking the Clippers at the seven. Because this is a late start, that dynamic could be in play all through the day.
We’ve had a huge drop on the total, from an opening line of 209.5 all the way down to 206.5 in some spots. Game Six only made it to 199…and this game could be played a similarly slow pace. Oddsmakers had adjusted pre-open from prior numbers around 210-211. Old school sharps came in yard. And, the math guys had only made it 208. So, a combination of factors are involved in this case.
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@JR - how do these writers know sharp action is coming in?
Obviously a sportsbook can disclose that type of information, but how are these writers knowing this?
My guess is they are just assuming whats sharp/square.....which imo is all just b/s as professionals will not all be on 1 side.
True pros realize its not just about going contrarian on a consistent basis.....at least not on heavier plays. '
@Leet - where are you going?Comment -
Hey Leet, I don't come in often so I don't clutter up your thread brotha...
Just wanted to say have a SAFE vacation & I hope you enjoy your time off sir
Thanks again for all the work you do for us "degens", it means a lot for guys like me. Cheers!
*Off topic, gotta think Mayweather by decision at -215 is a good play... He never knocks anyone out & I don't think homeboy will even touch May tonight... Just an outside thought. He wins by decision IMO. BOL to ev1...Comment -
Anyone else leaning over tonight at Staples?Comment -
Atlanta go scoreless in the last 5 minutes of the second, need to step up in the second half!Comment -
Oooh vacation. I gotta try that one day. Safe travels Leeter.Comment -
there was a guy named Nick Bowdonovich, who used to write these articles for the website, he moved on , think he is a lines manager somewhere else....these guys picked up the slack since....very popular for pro football......fyi sorry Leet,........ this was meant for a separate thread.....I think these are good as it gets the average square to think about where the value may lieComment -
Tough way to go on vacationComment -
Just goes to show never follow anyone when they are just about to go on leisure time. His mind was elsewhere. He couldn't have had good concentration just before heading for his flight. A good lesson to learn. Not trying to cause trouble, just common sense.Comment -
I had a small feeling about last night, I certainly didn't expect an 0-5... It wasn't bec Leet put the card up so fast or that he put all his plays up quickly at once, it was when I read the "easy card tonight" is when I got that feeling.. Nothing is ever "easy" in these freaking playoffs. I thought we were all quite aware of that after these games we have seen and some of these swings.. Might have to go with the gut for today's plays. Best of luck to ev1..Comment -
Does anyone know if Lee is done posting for these playoffs??? I guess I can just fade Twizz now if so, should of started last night, I think he went 0-4. Arg!!! BOL to ev1...Comment -
hes on vacationComment -
how can airbagvag be that bad for that long? its mathematically impossible to be that bad. He must be working for the illuminati.Comment -
I know when I go on vacation I bring my laptop......and play games
Surprised he isn't checking inComment
Let's close this one out strong, brother
