Thurs, March 5 plays

bmw530i · 03-05-09, 12:47 AM

Curious, you ever do any Over/Unders?

curious · 03-05-09, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by bmw530i

Curious, you ever do any Over/Unders?

No

Sisig · 03-05-09, 06:21 AM

why portland?

pho3nix32 · 03-05-09, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by Sisig

why portland?

tuna or pork?

csimmalavong · 03-05-09, 11:54 AM

What why dallas ?

mb19 · 03-05-09, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Sisig

why portland?

Originally posted by csimmalavong

What why dallas ?

Things are about to get ugly in here.

SoonerGreg · 03-05-09, 12:13 PM

I believe Curious has a system and from what I understand, he plays whatever games the system says are good value. He does play a lot of big ML favorites but is extremely successful.

jkrap27 · 03-05-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by curious

Dallas (ML if fav, + points if dog)
Portland +5
Portland 2H (depending on the line, don't go crazy)

good picks. for the dallas game take the over and the under for the portland game.

curious · 03-05-09, 08:31 PM

Why Dallas? Why Portland?

I use who's hot / who's cold. I look to find a hot team playing a cold team. If the team is a dog I use ATS to determine hot/cold, if the team is a fav I use SU.

I skip any game of two hot teams or two cold teams playing each other.

I also skip games where either of the teams is neither hot nor cold.

I only play favs on the money line, laying points is for rookies and wimps.

This approach works far more often than not.

therber2 · 03-05-09, 08:59 PM

Curious what is your definition of "hot" and "cold." Is there a more specific trend you've noticed (eg. hotter vs. colder = stronger trend vis versa)?

curious · 03-05-09, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by therber2

Curious what is your definition of "hot" and "cold." Is there a more specific trend you've noticed (eg. hotter vs. colder = stronger trend vis versa)?

i don't make it that complicated. 4-0 is hot, 0-7 is cold.

For a given team I look at their games and see what they have been doing. I usually stop at a change in trend, if the change is obvious. Take New Jersey for example. Just look at their results. They either won or covered their last 5 games in a row. Why do I go back 5 games instead of 6 or 7 or 23? Because before that they lost 5 games in a row. Obviously the trend changed.

I picked up on this trend change when New Jersey had won 2 in a row, so I have been following them for 3 games which they all won.

Sometimes you have to go back more games, for Orlando you have to go back 7 games, they are 5-2 ATS in those. Why 7? Because before that they had a 3 game losing streak.

If a team's record is choppy, say they are 4-4, then I say they are neither hot nor cold and I pass on that game.

If you just look at a team's record using the matchup feature it usually becomes obvious what the trend is.

therber2 · 03-05-09, 09:50 PM

Well it is working! I'm looking for the trends you were following here then for tonight's games. Denver and Portland. Seems like a good pick. Denver is definitely "cold", but there trend seems to indicate a rebound. Plus they will be playing at a much much higher altitude. Not sure about this one my man.

Let's see.

Gl Curious, thanks for the insight!

pho3nix32 · 03-05-09, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by curious

i don't make it that complicated. 4-0 is hot, 0-7 is cold.

For a given team I look at their games and see what they have been doing. I usually stop at a change in trend, if the change is obvious. Take New Jersey for example. Just look at their results. They either won or covered their last 5 games in a row. Why do I go back 5 games instead of 6 or 7 or 23? Because before that they lost 5 games in a row. Obviously the trend changed.

I picked up on this trend change when New Jersey had won 2 in a row, so I have been following them for 3 games which they all won.

Sometimes you have to go back more games, for Orlando you have to go back 7 games, they are 5-2 ATS in those. Why 7? Because before that they had a 3 game losing streak.

If a team's record is choppy, say they are 4-4, then I say they are neither hot nor cold and I pass on that game.

If you just look at a team's record using the matchup feature it usually becomes obvious what the trend is.

excellent points curious!

curious · 03-05-09, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by therber2

Well it is working! I'm looking for the trends you were following here then for tonight's games. Denver and Portland. Seems like a good pick. Denver is definitely "cold", but there trend seems to indicate a rebound. Plus they will be playing at a much much higher altitude. Not sure about this one my man.

Let's see.

Gl Curious, thanks for the insight!

I'm not sure what that means "....there trend seems to indicate a rebound...". Denver is 1-6 ATS. How does that trend indicate a "rebound"?

It is easier for a team that is losing to lose again than it is for them to win.

therber2 · 03-05-09, 10:02 PM

That is true. I meant a rebound based on previous trends. Denver has come back hard after a two day loss, but then again you are right; Denver is changing pace. The altitude still bothers me though. heh.

nonsense48 · 03-06-09, 01:38 AM

interesting to say the least