NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 07:58 AM

I will crosscheck every time

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by perryhs

NCAAB:

rank <= 25 and Minimum(points@team and season,N=10) >= 70

p:field goals made / p:field goals attempted > 0.65 and ((p:H and H) or (p:A and A))

**perryhs** · 02-02-15, 08:44 AM

thanks nash13

**usernametaken** · 02-02-15, 08:47 AM

There is alot of math here. Are there any plays?

**perryhs** · 02-02-15, 08:56 AM

NCAABB:

p:line > 20 and p:dpa < 0

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by perryhs

NCAABB:

p:line > 20 and p:dpa < 0

i filtered the results a bit for higher yield and profit.
p:line > 20 and p:dpa < 0 and rest>0 and o:rest != 3

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by usernametaken

There is alot of math here. Are there any plays?

there are a lot of plays, but nothing on common ground, we share opinion on using the right situations for betting. it seems to worth it, but it's a lot of work too.

**perryhs** · 02-02-15, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by nash13

i filtered the results a bit for higher yield and profit.
p:line > 20 and p:dpa < 0 and rest>0 and o:rest != 3

rest>0 OK.. but o:rest!=3 not good, I guess this parameter is easily overfitting

**perryhs** · 02-02-15, 10:22 AM

NCAAB:

p:field goals made/p:field goals attempted < 0.3 and p:H

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by perryhs

rest>0 OK.. but o:rest!=3 not good, I guess this parameter is easily overfitting

ok i will check that

**nash13** · 02-02-15, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by usernametaken

There is alot of math here. Are there any plays?

and btw there is a program which puts out the daily plays, but there are some skills needed.

**Heart** · 02-02-15, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by nash13

NCAAB: tA(points@season) <= 63 and oA(o

oints@season) <= 63 and site = away and game number >= 15 and p

oints <= 65 and pp

oints <= 65 and ppp

oints <= 65 and pppp

oints <= 65 and ppppp

oints <= 65

Just fyi here's a cool little shortcut in sdql to compact the previous 5 games points <= 65. Feel free to use either way, I've just got a weird personality that requires short and efficient lol

tA(points@season)<=63 and oA(o

oints@season)<=63 and A and (game number)>= 15 and tS(points<=65,N=5)=5

I will say the advantage of short hand like this allows you to explore more dynamically if desired, such as the team has scored 65 or less in 4 of the last 5 games in any order which is pretty cool. i.e.

tA(points@season)<=63 and oA(o

oints@season)<=63 and A and (game number)>= 15 and tS(points<=65,N=5)=4

**Heart** · 02-02-15, 03:27 PM

disregard this post

**dmitean** · 02-02-15, 05:22 PM

AD and p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season>2012
O/U:7-17-1 (-7.72, 29.2%) avg total: 202.0

If you go back longer - it still works fine.

Interesting that if you do this:
AF and p:H and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season>2012
You get pretty nice query supporting the Over.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 02-03-15, 01:00 PM

Three heavily supported plays tonight. We'll see if the jinx is on.

Celtics -1 (26,55,76,183,213,257)
Nuggets -8 (12,13,55,88,117,119,120,121,257)
Warriors -9 (19,24,110,129,173,256)

**GSoro** · 02-03-15, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Three heavily supported plays tonight. We'll see if the jinx in on.

Celtics -1 (26,55,76,183,213,257)
Nuggets -8 (12,13,55,88,117,119,120,121,257)
Warriors -9 (19,24,110,129,173,256)

I'm somewhat new here....what do the numbers in the parentheses mean?

**nash13** · 02-03-15, 02:59 PM

these are the rend numbers we collect which support the plays.

**Heart** · 02-03-15, 03:37 PM

I'm on all 3 of those tonight myself, Cutler's Thumb.

**TheLineShifter** · 02-03-15, 04:12 PM

Cards look brilliant tonight. Best of luck everyone.

**FortySix** · 02-03-15, 05:34 PM

Hey fellas, just a quick question. How do I do a query based on a team's average possessions per game? Is it possible? I know that we can find the average score of a team but can we find their average possession rate as well? I feel as though this would help immensely for totals plays.

Tonight I like the over in 76ers v Nuggets because 76ers totals have all gone under but thats against sides that don't get the same amount of possessions like the Nuggets get. Nuggets average around 99 per game (NBA.com stats helped me with that) and 76ers hit around 98 as well which is above the NBA average (96). The teams that 76ers have played lately play under the average pace apart from the T-Wolves which have the same pace as the Nuggets (98-99) per game so was wanting to see if I could add that into my query.

Thank you in advance fellas.

**nash13** · 02-03-15, 06:46 PM

This is hard to predict. Because I can not see how this could be calculated flawless in SDQL.

**pip2** · 02-03-15, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by FortySix

Hey fellas, just a quick question. How do I do a query based on a team's average possessions per game? Is it possible? I know that we can find the average score of a team but can we find their average possession rate as well? I feel as though this would help immensely for totals plays.

Tonight I like the over in 76ers v Nuggets because 76ers totals have all gone under but thats against sides that don't get the same amount of possessions like the Nuggets get. Nuggets average around 99 per game (NBA.com stats helped me with that) and 76ers hit around 98 as well which is above the NBA average (96). The teams that 76ers have played lately play under the average pace apart from the T-Wolves which have the same pace as the Nuggets (98-99) per game so was wanting to see if I could add that into my query.

Thank you in advance fellas.

Some guy on google groups said that every possession ends in either a turnover or a shot attempted, so you just need to add those together to get possessions. I think he was (at the very least) missing something because a possession could also end in freethrows attempted. But that might be it: shots attempted + turnovers + freethrows/2 might be pretty close to number of possessions.

**nash13** · 02-03-15, 10:55 PM

the and 1s could be misleading, as the shots are counted so by this math 2 FGM + 2 FT would mean 3 possessions but there were in fact 2. so it is as close as it gets, but yet not correct.

**dmitean** · 02-04-15, 04:54 AM

Would like your opinion guys, on situations, where great trend, after filtering becomes a good one.

For example. Trend as is, has 70% hit rate. But after filtering (month or season or line or rest or few of the above) it becomes 55% - 57%. On paper it's still a good trend, but in reality, it's obvious that if there is a spot where trend not at his best, it's current spot. Do you still play it?

**dmitean** · 02-04-15, 04:58 AM

76 and 183 are the same trend... Deleted 183.

**nash13** · 02-04-15, 08:58 AM

i took trend 284 up to the deleted 183

**TheLineShifter** · 02-04-15, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Three heavily supported plays tonight. We'll see if the jinx is on.

Celtics -1 (26,55,76,183,213,257)
Nuggets -8 (12,13,55,88,117,119,120,121,257)
Warriors -9 (19,24,110,129,173,256)

2 - 1

**hyahya** · 02-04-15, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by pip2

Some guy on google groups said that every possession ends in either a turnover or a shot attempted, so you just need to add those together to get possessions. I think he was (at the very least) missing something because a possession could also end in freethrows attempted. But that might be it: shots attempted + turnovers + freethrows/2 might be pretty close to number of possessions.

You probably want to use the following:

FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO - OReb

Some folks remove ORebs but I tend to believe that a new possession starts after a change of possession. The 0.44 coefficient for FTA takes care of conventional 3-point plays (and 1s) and technicals.

**pip2** · 02-04-15, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

You probably want to use the following:

FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO - OReb

Some folks remove ORebs but I tend to believe that a new possession starts after a change of possession. The 0.44 coefficient for FTA takes care of conventional 3-point plays (and 1s) and technicals.

I would really like to mess around more with this, but its like I have to try 10 times before I can get it by without a timeout:

(tA(FGA) + tA(TO) + tA(FTA) * .44 - tA(offensive rebounds)) - 9 > (tA(FGA,N=3) + tA(TO,N=3) + tA(FTA,N=3) * .44 - tA(offensive rebounds,N=3))

Team's average possessions for the season drops by 9 or more for the last 3 games: ATS lose and UNDER both at 59 per cent with a sample size of 100. I would love to play with the number 9 to bring the sample size up and then try to work in some numbers that deal with the opponent's possessions as well, but that would probably never get past the timeout barrier...

**nash13** · 02-04-15, 05:16 PM

p:HDW and pp:HDW and game number > 41 and rest >0

**nash13** · 02-04-15, 05:22 PM

NCAAB:

<wp<80 and="" o:wp<50<="" html=""></wp<80>

**birdsfan** · 02-04-15, 05:40 PM

Here is what i saw for tonight

DET/IND
none

BRK/TOR

over 212
under 86
toronto 281 234 93

WAS/ATL

atl 80

DEN/BOS

over 87
under 146
denver 257 76 55

CHI/HOU

over 108
chicago 74
houston 195

MIA/MIN

none

LAK/MIL

over 253

OKC/NOLA

under 258 31
okc 26

ORL/SAS

over 279 253 108 62

MEM/UTA

under 149
memphis 120 26
utah 222 208 13

DAL/GST

over 87
under 205
dallas 63
g state 138

**palms** · 02-04-15, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by nash13

NCAAB:

<wp<80 and="" o:wp<50<="" html=""></wp<80>

I am just trying to learn this code. Can you tell me if I got it right? We are fading home favorites who are 10 point or greater favorites, who went at least 24 points over the total in their previous game, who have a win percentage between 60 and 80 percent and are playing an opponent with a win percentage less than 50%. Do I have that correct? Thanks, this is a great thread.

**pip2** · 02-04-15, 07:52 PM

season >= 2009 and (tA(FGA) + tA(TO) + tA(FTA) * .44 - tA(offensive rebounds)) - 5 > (tA(FGA,N=2) + tA(TO,N=2) + tA(FTA,N=2) * .44 - tA(offensive rebounds,N=2)) and (oA(FGA) + oA(TO) + oA(FTA) * .44 - oA(offensive rebounds)) - 5 > (oA(FGA,N=2) + oA(TO,N=2) + oA(FTA,N=2) * .44 - oA(offensive rebounds,N=2))

Got the above to go through --

SU: 102-102 (0.00, 50.0%)
ATS: 99-99-6 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 82-122-0 (-4.26, 40.2%) avg total: 192.9

**nash13** · 02-04-15, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by palms

I am just trying to learn this code. Can you tell me if I got it right? We are fading home favorites who are 10 point or greater favorites, who went at least 24 points over the total in their previous game, who have a win percentage between 60 and 80 percent and are playing an opponent with a win percentage less than 50%. Do I have that correct? Thanks, this is a great thread.

absolutely right. hope you catch up to it.