NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**Tommy Karate** · 02-27-14, 09:47 PM

interesting thread....read only 2 pages so far

**figue** · 02-27-14, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by JMon

wow...bad beat on the under ....16 pts scored in the last 46 seconds of the game...just wow!!

not bad...fig

total of 199.5 to 191
b2b games of scoring 110 points or more
oppt. scored 60 or more at the half in their last game.

thanks,unbelive last seconds,any way nice call.

**NBACover** · 02-28-14, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Not much to work with, but perfect under with no season filter and minimal parameters

H and 199.5>=total>=191 and p: points>=110 and pp: points>=110 and op: P1+op: P2>=60

Note: take off home filter for original query

Again, need to eliminate spaces; let me know if you need a translation

This play was for the pacers under.

JMON, I have you a pacer total winner march 1st

**husky** · 02-28-14, 08:18 AM

Again, awesome thread JMon and Mako. I love the situations. It would be great if we could work together to have a handful of situations for each sport!

**Mako-SBR** · 02-28-14, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by JMon

make that 18 pts..with a tip in on the last second.

Was that ridiculous or what...I actually closed the browser I had going watching this game with a couple minutes left while thinking "nice, another win"...

**Mako-SBR** · 02-28-14, 05:13 PM

Harder to bet as some of the books don't properly offer NCAABB totals, but here's one for college ball under plays:

p:AL and pp:AL and p:margin<=-8 and pp:margin<=-11 and WP<=50 and rest<=5 and not C and po: points>=82

29-106-2 (-8.82, 21.5%)

The definition is that you're taking the under whenever a .500-or-less team comes off two large road losses in a row having allowed 82 points or more in their last game and is now up against a non-Conference opponent. The actual premise behind it is that you're betting that a team who played uncharacteristically poor defense and got embarrassed because of it twice in a row will now reset their focus on that particular aspect of their game and will lock down the opponent's scoring (and thus the total score) in their next game.

**fataliz** · 02-28-14, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Harder to bet as some of the books don't properly offer NCAABB totals, but here's one for college ball under plays:

p:AL and pp:AL and p:margin<=-8 and pp:margin<=-11 and WP<=50 and rest<=5 and not C and po: points>=82

29-106-2 (-8.82, 21.5%)

The definition is that you're taking the under whenever a .500-or-less team comes off two large road losses in a row having allowed 82 points or more in their last game and is now up against a non-Conference opponent. The actual premise behind it is that you're betting that a team who played uncharacteristically poor defense and got embarrassed because of it twice in a row will now reset their focus on that particular aspect of their game and will lock down the opponent's scoring (and thus the total score) in their next game.

hey i cant find the ncaab sqdl anywhere on the site. where isit? thanks!

**Mako-SBR** · 02-28-14, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by fataliz

hey i cant find the ncaab sqdl anywhere on the site. where isit? thanks!

The KillerSports site doesn't offer it yet as it's still in Beta so you have to go to the SportsDatabase core SDQL site instead. Google it if still lost.

**figue** · 02-28-14, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

The KillerSports site doesn't offer it yet as it's still in Beta so you have to go to the SportsDatabase core SDQL site instead. Google it if still lost.

good i find it ,thanks.

**figue** · 02-28-14, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Wojo

This is for a team off a 35+ win:

p:margin>=35

tomorrow fade blazers 1-9 this season

**husky** · 03-01-14, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by figue

tomorrow fade blazers 1-9 this season

Nice.

**JMon** · 03-01-14, 01:09 PM

simple yet powerful

line <= -11 and po: points <= 80 and opo: points >= 110

**Mako-SBR** · 03-01-14, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by JMon

line <= -11 and po: points <= 80 and opo: points >= 110

So many different systems all fading Portland today, love it.

**tonywayne** · 03-01-14, 04:04 PM

Question about JMon's query: there were no such games between Dec 2012 and today? Seems like that would at least sort of violate the consistency rule.

How does that factor in to the query's value?

**Mako-SBR** · 03-01-14, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by tonywayne

Question about JMon's query: there were no such games between Dec 2012 and today? Seems like that would at least sort of violate the consistency rule.

How does that factor in to the query's value?

As I said earlier in the thread, everyone's definition of worthwhile/not-worthwhile systems is different. To see my particular rules, read post #170.

Whatever standards you do ultimately decide to apply are fine, there is no right or wrong answer really. Some guys like to have dozens of systems going daily on nearly every game that day and then make their plays based on say "10 systems are pointing to one team to win while just 3 point to the opponent to win".

I prefer to have an extremely limited amount of systems that don't overlap or duplicate each other's results, so I have far fewer plays than the example bettor I just gave, roughly 1-2 a day for NBA typically.

**b1slickguy** · 03-01-14, 07:43 PM

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

I've been on the road all week.
Fading a couple of home teams.
Good luck.

**tonywayne** · 03-01-14, 10:37 PM

So, I took a shot at the 2H over 106 on the Was/Phi game tonight. They scored 136 in the first half... then only 89 in the second half.

I'm not seeing how to run a query to show 2nd half scoring if the first half was over a certain number of points. Help? I'd like to have this sort of thing in my back pocket in the future... maybe really high scoring first halves lead to really low scoring second halves?

Thanks!

**figue** · 03-02-14, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012

I've been on the road all week.
Fading a couple of home teams.
Good luck.

2-0

this thread is gold thnaks.

**figue** · 03-02-14, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by figue

tomorrow fade blazers 1-9 this season

Originally posted by husky

Nice.

Originally posted by JMon

simple yet powerful

line <= -11 and po: points <= 80 and opo: points >= 110

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

So many different systems all fading Portland today, love it.

winner

**Mako-SBR** · 03-02-14, 12:38 AM

Perfect 3-0 end to a great week. On to the next.

**b1slickguy** · 03-02-14, 03:16 AM

Great work everyone.
Let's end the season strong.
Good luck.

**Tommy Karate** · 03-02-14, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

The definition is that you're taking the under whenever a .500-or-less team comes off two large road losses in a row having allowed 82 points or more in their last game and is now up against a non-Conference opponent. The actual premise behind it is that you're betting that a team who played uncharacteristically poor defense and got embarrassed because of it twice in a row will now reset their focus on that particular aspect of their game and will lock down the opponent's scoring (and thus the total score) in their next game.

does this angle have point range that the 500< team loses by?
also, what if they gave up say 84 and 85 pts in the last 2 losses? thats actually a great defensive effort.

im probably missing something....

**Wojo** · 03-02-14, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by Tommy Karate

also, what if they gave up say 84 and 85 pts in the last 2 losses? thats actually a great defensive effort.

The trend you are talking about is for college ball. While in the NBA giving up 82 points is very good defensively, it is very poor in the college ranks.

**figue** · 03-02-14, 06:50 PM

H and p:AL and pp:AL and date >= 20131116

38-21-1 (5.48, 64.4%)

avg total: 200.6

any logic here ??

**b1slickguy** · 03-02-14, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by figue

H and p:AL and pp:AL and date >= 20131116

38-21-1 (5.48, 64.4%)

avg total: 200.6

any logic here ??

I have an sdql I created a few months back with a similar base query showing an increase of overs this season, too. Back-testing gives different results, though. It could be the start of something good...or not. Try extending the date parameter and adding other filters. The sdql below is an ATS based play not O/U. No play tomorrow, (DET is home next) but maybe soon.
Good luck.

H and total>=201 and n:A and p:ADL and pp:ADL and season>=2011

**figue** · 03-02-14, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

I have an sdql I created a few months back with a similar base query showing an increase of overs this season, too. Back-testing gives different results, though. It could be the start of something good...or not. Try extending the date parameter and adding other filters. The sdql below is an ATS based play not O/U. No play tomorrow, (DET is home next) but maybe soon.
Good luck.

H and total>=201 and n:A and p:ADL and pp:ADL and season>=2011

5-24-0 (-9.24, 17.2%)	avg line: 2.1
20-9-0 (4.95, 69.0%)	avg total: 206.8

nice rate here fading home team ats and total over ,good for parlay.

**b1slickguy** · 03-03-14, 01:21 AM

Modified the sdql from posts #3 and #4 giving it a larger sample size extending more than just a few months.
Anyone have any other sdql's to compliment or contradict the plays produced below?
Good luck.

H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

**Wojo** · 03-03-14, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Anyone have any other sdql's to compliment or contradict the plays produced below?
Good luck.

H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

Don't have any other trends, but if you add "and line>=0" to your sdql it improves to 3-18 ATS.

**b1slickguy** · 03-03-14, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by Wojo

Don't have any other trends, but if you add "and line>=0" to your sdql it improves to 3-18 ATS.

Good in theory, but leaving out 36 plays that show a 72% win rate. (10-26 ATS +15u)
Good luck.

**Wojo** · 03-03-14, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Good in theory, but leaving out 36 plays that show a 72% win rate. (10-26 ATS +15u)
Good luck.

So it makes no difference to you if a team is a dog or is favored?
Good luck.

**Mako-SBR** · 03-03-14, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Good in theory, but leaving out 36 plays that show a 72% win rate. (10-26 ATS +15u)
Good luck.

Especially when eliminating that large chunks of games doesn't have anything to do with improving or playing to the foundational core logic of the play, which in this case is fading a team coming home after two successful away games. Doesn't matter if they're a dog or fav because the logic stands that the team and linemakers and public are now aligned the other direction on the team's next home game, overconfident/trap/etc, and the line is potentially full of value going the other way against them.

I always aim for the largest samples, over the most amount of seasons, as possible when I tinker with strings.

**Mako-SBR** · 03-03-14, 03:32 PM

Can't remember if I posted this one before, but the play is the Under:

total<=199.5 and p: points>=108 and p: overtime=0 and pp: points>=102 and op: P1+op:P2>=57 and op: W

**NBACover** · 03-03-14, 03:54 PM

Did I enter this right? Return results on to see how Grizzlies do on their first game of a three game road trip since the 2011 season.

The under is 9-1

team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011

**NBACover** · 03-03-14, 04:03 PM

BULLS/NETS > team=Nets and rest>=1 and o:rest>=0 and H and season=2013
Nets are 15-8 SU 65%
Nets are 14-8-1 O/U 62%

**cofaga** · 03-03-14, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Can't remember if I posted this one before, but the play is the Under:

total<=199.5 and p: points>=108 and p: overtime=0 and pp: points>=102 and op: P1+op:P2>=57 and op: W

Hey just wondering what your logic on this is?

tA(points)+10<p

oints and tA(points)+10<pp

oints and tA(points)+10<ppp

oints and total<=190 and H

seems to point to the over but of course your data is the greater sample size</ppp</pp</p