$100 Moneyline Experiment

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  • kroyrunner89
    SBR MVP
    • 10-25-08
    • 1191

    #1
    $100 Moneyline Experiment
    With my new system, I track how well it performs predicting straight up winners. I also can use my college basketball system here too, because it predicts straight up much better than ATS. Anyways, looking at the first week of my system last night, I saw that it started 41-13 (76%) in predicting winners straight up. When I took only teams it said would win by more than 5, the record became a remarkable 26-2 (92.9%). Of course almost all of these were playing favorites, which got me to wondering just how profitable one could be playing moneylines when the vast majority of their picks are favorites. I'm going to use $100 for just this purpose, to see how much money I can turn it into by the end of the season. My early goal is $500, I should have a good idea after a couple weeks just how realistic that is. I may throw some parlays in before everything is over with, but to begin with I'm just going to do straight bets. So, here we go!
    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
  • kroyrunner89
    SBR MVP
    • 10-25-08
    • 1191

    #2
    Monday:
    Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14)
    Lakers -360 ($10.00 to win $2.78)
    Rockets -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
    Suns -310 ($10.00 to win $3.23)
    One more note, yes, I'll be playing ridiculous lines like the Cavs from time to time. It all adds up in the long run...
    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
    Comment
    • superslinky
      SBR Hustler
      • 02-19-09
      • 61

      #3
      Well all I can say is good luck.
      Comment
      • kroyrunner89
        SBR MVP
        • 10-25-08
        • 1191

        #4
        lol thanks, i may bust in a couple weeks who knows but its only $100 bucks so figured i'd give it a shot just for the fun of it
        2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
        2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
        2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
        2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

        Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
        Comment
        • Vesuvius
          SBR MVP
          • 02-19-08
          • 3886

          #5
          Originally posted by kroyrunner89
          Monday:
          Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14)

          One more note, yes, I'll be playing ridiculous lines like the Cavs from time to time. It all adds up in the long run...
          So basically what you are saying is if this game was played over 35 times, the Cavs would win every single one to profit. Sorry but this has bust written all over it.
          Comment
          • BLUUR05
            SBR Rookie
            • 02-21-09
            • 26

            #6
            kory y dont you parlay them all into one.. i think its like 1-1.59
            instead you would have

            risk $70
            Cavaliers -3500
            Lakers -360
            Rockets -200
            Suns -310


            win 111

            i mean if its 26-2 then you have no worries!
            Comment
            • kroyrunner89
              SBR MVP
              • 10-25-08
              • 1191

              #7
              haha i'm not a huge fan of large parlays, i don't like going over 3 teams very much. and i'd like more than a week of results before i decide to start doing them. yeah its 26-2, but i'm a big believer that past results don't guarantee future performance. i'll start this out a bit on the conservative side, in a week or so though parlays will probably be a bigger part of this thread.
              2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
              2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
              2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
              2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

              Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
              Comment
              • kroyrunner89
                SBR MVP
                • 10-25-08
                • 1191

                #8
                Adding:
                2 Team Parlay:
                Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61)
                2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                Comment
                • icemantbi
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 07-18-07
                  • 944

                  #9
                  Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                  Adding:
                  2 Team Parlay:
                  Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61)
                  Why not tease em? You get way better odds...

                  $120 to win $100

                  And the spreads are -2 and -1.5. In other words, pick em.

                  just a thought (yes, I have the Lakers and Suns teased tonight)
                  Comment
                  • kroyrunner89
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-25-08
                    • 1191

                    #10
                    wow very good thought, i'll watch for that in the future it didn't even cross my mind i just stopped by very briefly to make the play. i said this is the moneyline thread though, in the future i'll just put those teasers in my other thread and keep dumb parlays like that outta here
                    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                    Comment
                    • kroyrunner89
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-25-08
                      • 1191

                      #11
                      Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                      Monday:
                      Cavaliers -3500 ($40.00 to win $1.14) Win
                      Lakers -360 ($10.00 to win $2.78) Win
                      Rockets -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Win
                      Suns -310 ($10.00 to win $3.23) Win
                      Parlay:
                      Suns -325 & Lakers -370 ($10.00 to win $6.61) Win
                      Man, wishing I had parlayed all four of these like BLUUR05 had suggested lol. Regardless though, profitable day and the system continued to prove itself. To be honest, it did have Orlando winning by more than 5 as well, but thank god I was smart enough to leave that one alone today. Cya all tomorrow with the next round of plays.

                      Straight Wagers: 4-0
                      Parlays: 1-0
                      Bankroll: $118.76
                      2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                      2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                      2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                      2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                      Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                      Comment
                      • kroyrunner89
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-25-08
                        • 1191

                        #12
                        Alright big day, I have three plays I'm very confident in, and I'm adding another two because they make the cut, but barely. I'm going to go a bit parlay crazy in addition to my straight wagers today, I'd be pretty surprised if it isn't another profitable night. Here's what I've got:

                        Clemson -600 ($12.00 to win $2.00)

                        Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $3.58)
                        Pacers -330 ($12.00 to win $3.64)
                        Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $2.40)
                        Magic -145 ($12.00 to win $8.28)
                        76ers -195 ($12.00 to win $6.15)

                        Parlay: Mavericks -335 and Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.70)

                        Parlay: Pacers -330 and Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.76)
                        Parlay: Celtics -500, Pacers -330, and Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $12.36)

                        That's it for tonight, good luck with your betting guys.
                        2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                        2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                        2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                        2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                        Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                        Comment
                        • dmf5075
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 02-18-09
                          • 19

                          #13
                          bol with ur new system.. sounds kick ass
                          Comment
                          • kroyrunner89
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-25-08
                            • 1191

                            #14
                            looks like my fate for the day hinges on the celtics... i'm pissed i didn't have the discipline to hold off on the clemson play but whatcha gunna do, thank god i didn't throw them in any parlays. anyways, as long as boston takes care of business it'll be another profitable day, otherwise things could get pretty ugly pretty quick
                            2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                            2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                            2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                            2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                            Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                            Comment
                            • kroyrunner89
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-25-08
                              • 1191

                              #15
                              Originally posted by kroyrunner89

                              Clemson -600 ($12.00 to win $2.00)Loss

                              Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $3.58)Win
                              Pacers -330 ($12.00 to win $3.64) Win
                              Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $2.40) Loss
                              Magic -145 ($12.00 to win $8.28) Win
                              76ers -195 ($12.00 to win $6.15) Win

                              Parlay: Mavericks -335, Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.70)
                              Loss
                              Parlay: Pacers -330, Celtics -500 ($12.00 to win $6.76) Loss
                              Parlay: Celtics -500, Pacers -330, and Mavericks -335 ($12.00 to win $12.36) Loss
                              Well, all I can say eff the Celtics, totally screwed my day. This is why I should stay away from parlays, ugh. Well I may be back tomorrow to dig myself out of this hole, I don't know if I'll have any plays though with the limited number of NBA games.

                              CBB: 0-1
                              NBA: 8-1
                              2 Team Parlays: 1-2
                              3 Team Parlays: 0-1
                              Bankroll: $80.41
                              2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                              2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                              2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                              2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                              Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                              Comment
                              • ATB515
                                Restricted User
                                • 01-08-09
                                • 734

                                #16
                                put 40 on L.A

                                Wont win much though

                                Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                                Well, all I can say eff the Celtics, totally screwed my day. This is why I should stay away from parlays, ugh. Well I may be back tomorrow to dig myself out of this hole, I don't know if I'll have any plays though with the limited number of NBA games.

                                CBB: 0-1
                                NBA: 9-1
                                2 Team Parlays: 1-2
                                3 Team Parlays: 0-1
                                Bankroll: $80.41
                                Comment
                                • kroyrunner89
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-25-08
                                  • 1191

                                  #17
                                  ya looks like LA is gunna be a play, just waiting on the line
                                  2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                  2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                  2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                  2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                  Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                  Comment
                                  • kroyrunner89
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-25-08
                                    • 1191

                                    #18
                                    After the Celtics debacle last night, combined with my inability to get to the Lakers line quickly, I decided against making it a straight play. However, I threw a "Money in the wind" parlay together that I actually feel like has great shot at hitting. if it doesn't, oh well, at least I can say I had fun. Here's what I've got.

                                    Parlay: Lakers -800, Wake Forest -800, Illinois -335, Washington U. -165 ($10.41 to win $17.07)
                                    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                    Comment
                                    • kroyrunner89
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-25-08
                                      • 1191

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                                      Parlay: Lakers -800, Wake Forest -800, Illinois -335, Washington U. -165 ($10.41 to win $17.07) Win
                                      Another nice day, all four of my system money line plays hit and snagged me a pretty nice parlay. Early indications are that I'll have a whole lot of NBA tomorrow, probably won't do anything too crazy and just straight wager all of them we'll see. I'll have them posted late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.

                                      Bankroll: $97.48
                                      2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                      2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                      2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                      2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                      Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                      Comment
                                      • ATB515
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 01-08-09
                                        • 734

                                        #20
                                        nice work


                                        Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                                        Another nice day, all four of my system money line plays hit and snagged me a pretty nice parlay. Early indications are that I'll have a whole lot of NBA tomorrow, probably won't do anything too crazy and just straight wager all of them we'll see. I'll have them posted late tonight or tomorrow afternoon.

                                        Bankroll: $97.48
                                        Comment
                                        • MrMonkey
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-09-08
                                          • 2278

                                          #21
                                          Good job Kroy! Keep plugging away my friend!

                                          MrMonkey
                                          Comment
                                          • kroyrunner89
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-25-08
                                            • 1191

                                            #22
                                            Okay well I weeded out one play today just because the injury situation is up in the air, but that still leaves 8 nice ones. I'm gunna keep it simple today and straight wager them all. Here's what I've got:

                                            Hornets -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90)
                                            Magic -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90)
                                            Bulls -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
                                            Celtics -925 ($10.00 to win $1.08)
                                            Hawks -215 ($10.00 to win $4.65)
                                            Trailblazers -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00)
                                            Mavericks -500 ($10.00 to win $2.00)
                                            Warriors EV ($10.00 to win $10.00)
                                            2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                            2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                            2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                            2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                            Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                            Comment
                                            • kroyrunner89
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-25-08
                                              • 1191

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                                              Hornets -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90) Win
                                              Magic -525 ($10.00 to win $1.90) Loss
                                              Bulls -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Loss
                                              Celtics -925 ($10.00 to win $1.08) Win
                                              Hawks -215 ($10.00 to win $4.65) Win
                                              Trailblazers -200 ($10.00 to win $5.00) Win
                                              Mavericks -500 ($10.00 to win $2.00) Win
                                              Warriors EV ($10.00 to win $10.00) Loss
                                              been out of town the past couple days so haven't had a chance to make picks. anyways, i'll keep this goin even though it isn't going so hot... i'll keep my record and bankroll up to date in my sig so i don't have to do it after every day in every post. today here is what i've got:

                                              Hawks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71)
                                              Spurs -380
                                              ($10.00 to win $2.63)
                                              Longhorns -385 ($10.00 to win $2.60)

                                              Parlay Longhorns, Hawks, and Spurs
                                              ($10.00 to win $15.01)
                                              2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                              2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                              2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                              2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                              Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                              Comment
                                              • kroyrunner89
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-25-08
                                                • 1191

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by kroyrunner89
                                                Hawks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71) Win
                                                Spurs -380
                                                ($10.00 to win $2.63) Win
                                                Longhorns -385 ($10.00 to win $2.60) Win

                                                Parlay Longhorns, Hawks, and Spurs
                                                ($10.00 to win $15.01) Win
                                                Had a nice day to get me back in the green, meanwhile since I've been tracking this thing SU its been doing pretty well ATS. Let me update some complete system records here really quick:
                                                NBA SU: 79-30
                                                NBA Top SU: 49-8
                                                NBA ATS: 64-45
                                                NCAA Best SU: 56-11

                                                I'm kind of at a loss what to do right now, NCAA is awful ATS so i'll just keep riding it's best ATS plays i guess. As for NBA, it has been very solid straight up but its reaching a point ATS where i feel like i need to start making plays off of it. i'm going to look a little further into it and see if winning % ATS increases with strength like my NFL system did. Meanwhile, we'll keep this thread going and hopefully make some significant gains with our bankroll in the next few weeks. cya all tomorrow
                                                2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                Comment
                                                • kroyrunner89
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 10-25-08
                                                  • 1191

                                                  #25
                                                  Rockets -475 ($10.00 to win $2.11)
                                                  Bucks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71)
                                                  Magic -285 ($10.00 to win $3.51)

                                                  2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                  2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                  2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                  2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                  Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                  Comment
                                                  • kroyrunner89
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-25-08
                                                    • 1191

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by ************
                                                    Rockets -475 ($10.00 to win $2.11) Win
                                                    Bucks -175 ($10.00 to win $5.71) Loss
                                                    Magic -285 ($10.00 to win $3.51) Win
                                                    slight loss today, the bucks really choked late after controlling most of the game. oh well we'll get em tomorrow.
                                                    2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
                                                    2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
                                                    2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
                                                    2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS

                                                    Overall: 137-97-3 ATS
                                                    Comment
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