Schaapattack's "Follow the Sharps" Selections

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  • schaapattack
    Restricted User
    • 12-23-08
    • 1007

    #1
    Schaapattack's "Follow the Sharps" Selections
    Most lines are derived from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). These oddsmakers work everyday analyzing stats and deriving the lines that sportsbooks around the world use. There is usually a group of people who construct a line and then a trial run. During this period, sharps and the like bet on the lines and the lines are adjusted accordingly. If a line is way off, it will be taken off the board and readjusted. There are a few sportsbooks which releases its lines the earliest, as compared to its competitors. Other sportsbooks, fearful of the sharps, first wait for the line movements before they post their lines.

    In conclusion, the line is the odds or pointspread that is determined by oddsmakers for a given sporting event matchup. It constructed by a team of oddsmakers and is first tested by sharps before it is released to the general public. If read correctly, one may follow the smart money and beat the sportsbooks in their own game. Lastly, the line is variable and is dependent upon where the money is flowing. In conclusion, the line is the odds or pointspread that is determined by oddsmakers for a given sporting event matchup. It constructed by a team of oddsmakers and is first tested by sharps before it is released to the general public. If read correctly, one may follow the smart money and beat the sportsbooks in their own game. Lastly, the line is variable and is dependent upon where the money is flowing.

    Picks comming soon.
  • schaapattack
    Restricted User
    • 12-23-08
    • 1007

    #2
    Be patient and have good money management. The units are based on 1 unit = -$110 to win $100. NHL is 1 unit = $100 ML

    Your amount per unit may be lower or higher than mine.
    Comment
    • schaapattack
      Restricted User
      • 12-23-08
      • 1007

      #3
      nba
      no 4:05 plays

      ncabb
      Furman +8.5WIN


      nhl
      no 4:05 plays


      NCABB 1-0
      NBA 0-0
      NHL 0-0
      Comment
      • schaapattack
        Restricted User
        • 12-23-08
        • 1007

        #4
        NHL
        No plays today

        NBA
        Possible play on Milwaukee (check back by 4:50 pst)

        NCABB
        Possible play on Missouri (check back by 5:50 pst)
        Comment
        • schaapattack
          Restricted User
          • 12-23-08
          • 1007

          #5
          NBA
          No plays today

          NCAABB
          Iona pk loss

          ncaabb 1-1
          nba 0-0
          nhl 0-0
          Comment
          • schaapattack
            Restricted User
            • 12-23-08
            • 1007

            #6
            NCAABB
            Missouri -5.5 loss
            Comment
            • schaapattack
              Restricted User
              • 12-23-08
              • 1007

              #7
              ncabb 1-2 (-1.2 units)
              nba 0-0
              nhl 0-0
              Comment
              • schaapattack
                Restricted User
                • 12-23-08
                • 1007

                #8
                Not a good start...see you tomorrow.
                Comment
                • schaapattack
                  Restricted User
                  • 12-23-08
                  • 1007

                  #9
                  Picks will be up shortly.
                  Comment
                  • solobass
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-15-09
                    • 1277

                    #10
                    whats up shaap, best of luck today!
                    Comment
                    • schaapattack
                      Restricted User
                      • 12-23-08
                      • 1007

                      #11
                      Hey bud tks u2
                      Comment
                      • JGILL50
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-31-08
                        • 836

                        #12
                        looks like the sharps are liking loyola chicago
                        Comment
                        • schaapattack
                          Restricted User
                          • 12-23-08
                          • 1007

                          #13
                          Looking into that game
                          Comment
                          • schaapattack
                            Restricted User
                            • 12-23-08
                            • 1007

                            #14
                            Possible Plays...dont book them yet unless noted...i will post final plays by 3:30 pst

                            NBA
                            Oklahoma City +13< WIN (Booked. 74% on lakers and the public will continue to bet the lakers. Get the line before it drops more. It is a official play)


                            NCAABB
                            Loyola Chicago +4.5< WIN
                            Northern Illinois +9.5< WIN
                            Depaul +1< LOSS

                            NHL
                            Nashville ML +155< LOSS
                            Comment
                            • solobass
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-15-09
                              • 1277

                              #15
                              here are my booked plays for the day

                              Cavs -6
                              Nets +5
                              Denver ML
                              Spurs/Nets under 187.5
                              Knicks +5
                              Michigan St. -4.5
                              Michigan St. over 134.5


                              cash those tickets!
                              Comment
                              • schaapattack
                                Restricted User
                                • 12-23-08
                                • 1007

                                #16
                                I like'em
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #17
                                  schaap - so are these strict RLM plays?
                                  Comment
                                  • DuffMan
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 01-31-09
                                    • 31

                                    #18
                                    schaap, bol! The way sharps bet have always been interesting to me. This should be an interesting thread.
                                    Comment
                                    • schaapattack
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 12-23-08
                                      • 1007

                                      #19
                                      Yes dex based on the opening and current lines on the greek and i am using both vegas insiders and sportsinsights fotr the % of money/bets on each side. All comments welcome to help out dex. I respect your opinion.
                                      Comment
                                      • FreshCoast
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 01-25-09
                                        • 467

                                        #20
                                        The OKC line opened last night at +13 dropped to +11.5 and just went back up to +12. If the public is pounding LA wont the line rise back to 13?
                                        Comment
                                        • schaapattack
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 12-23-08
                                          • 1007

                                          #21
                                          Because the sharps wager significantly more money than the general public. The sharps already made their wagers when the line first came out yesterday thats why the line went down 2 points but the smaller bets from the majority of the public will keep pounding the Lakers which will keep the % of bets on the lakers and the line should stay within a point lower than the opening line of 14. As long as the line stays at 13< its a play.
                                          Comment
                                          • schaapattack
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 12-23-08
                                            • 1007

                                            #22
                                            The 2 books who post lines the earliest had the Lakers at -14. You must use a book that opens its lines after the sharps wager...like most books do...thats the whole point of playing alonside the sharps. This is also why you dont wager to early as the % of bets/money could go against us and make it a no play but it wont happen with the lakers line.
                                            Comment
                                            • gameday10
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-16-09
                                              • 601

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by FreshCoast
                                              The OKC line opened last night at +13 dropped to +11.5 and just went back up to +12. If the public is pounding LA wont the line rise back to 13?
                                              Don't believe so because the sharps money is on charlotte, which usually the sharps bet more than the public so that is why the charlotte line dropped. Correct me if I am wrong.
                                              Comment
                                              • schaapattack
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 12-23-08
                                                • 1007

                                                #24
                                                This will explain it better. i posted this on ck's thread yesterday and shared it with the cappers in his thread as they are the best cappers on SBR.

                                                Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.

                                                For example, how could the lowly Miami Dolphins of the NFL beat a San Diego Chargers team than many predicted to go to the Super Bowl outright? Or how could a terrible Michigan football team upset a Wisconsin club that was expected to challenge for the Big Ten title?

                                                Well, both of these games had something in common that shrewd bettors could have used to their advantage, and that could have made these upsets both expected and profitable. Welcome to the world of reverse line movement.

                                                Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.

                                                So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.

                                                Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.

                                                To back this up, our friends over at Sports Insights have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number to the close at the top books in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. As you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
                                                At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point

                                                League W L P Pct Units
                                                NFL 2008 18 13 1 58.1% 2.83
                                                NFL 2007 155 130 9 54.4% 18.62
                                                NCAAF 2008 137 106 8 56.4% 17.51
                                                NCAAF 2007 227 156 4 59.3% 49.49
                                                NBA 2007-8 221 182 6 54.8% 18.89
                                                NCAAB 2007-8 272 203 11 57.3% 42.04

                                                Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number to the close at the top books in MLB and NHL has also been profitable. Again, these records are for money lines only and do not include totals.

                                                At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Money Line Move of at least 10 cents

                                                League W L P Pct Units
                                                MLB 2008 518 600 0 46.3% 131.98
                                                NHL 2008-9 1 0 0 100.0% 0.95
                                                NHL 2007-8 224 229 0 49.4% 85.69

                                                Obviously, this approach produces a lot of underdog money line plays, as you can see by comparing the winning percentages in MLB and NHL with the units won. However, one cannot quibble with the results, and dare we say, this is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping.
                                                Comment
                                                • schaapattack
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 12-23-08
                                                  • 1007

                                                  #25
                                                  The sharps money is on OK City but the majority of bets are on LA. If the line drops more than 1 point towards OKC with more than 60% of the bests on the lakers its a play.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Karayilan9
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 01-10-09
                                                    • 3742

                                                    #26
                                                    Schaapattack, Thunder is +15 on Betfair, Betfair lines don't change they stay the same from when the lines are first released because they are not a traditional bookie, they don't make money from betters losses.

                                                    They are +12 on Bet365, thats quite a difference, I wonder if the line will carry on dropping.

                                                    Best scenario is if the line keeps dropping, then we'll get a low Lakers 1st QTR hopefully -2/-3 and we can still jump on +15 at Betfair. Let's see.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Achilles15
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 01-25-09
                                                      • 156

                                                      #27
                                                      i got +13 with the thunder, if they get blown out by 20 , this system blows, i really dont think the teams play better or worse , depending on who bets what money on them or against them , and RLM is a myth , i tried that and its 50-50, overall
                                                      Comment
                                                      • schaapattack
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 12-23-08
                                                        • 1007

                                                        #28
                                                        over a season no its not
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Achilles15
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 01-25-09
                                                          • 156

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by schaapattack
                                                          over a season no its not

                                                          the line moves ONE way or ANOTHER on EVERY game , if you apply this the BS RLM , to everygame , it scomes out to between 45-55%
                                                          everytime ., saturday was a good sample, and i belive it was 51%
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ncaa2009
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 02-10-09
                                                            • 6

                                                            #30
                                                            Hi Schaapattack, it is a good thread. I like you approach and study this by myself as well. I have a one question:

                                                            Lets say that early line moves from +14 to +12.5 overnight. We can the sharps favour the underdog in this encounter. So it seems wise to follow this tendency. However, the situation may be that they already taken what was to be taken and there is no more value in taking +12.5

                                                            How do you know if the line is still worth backing?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Achilles15
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 01-25-09
                                                              • 156

                                                              #31
                                                              the right side is the right side, it only lands within 2 pts of a number a small % of the time , the thunder wikll either WIN or lose by 6 , or they lose by 16 or more.., judging by the lakers last tuesday performance, i say they win
                                                              Comment
                                                              • schaapattack
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 12-23-08
                                                                • 1007

                                                                #32
                                                                if they win by 13 thats the way it goes. you can always buy the points back to the original line..good point. achillies is right as the % of it landing in the grey area of the spread is not likely
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FreshCoast
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 01-25-09
                                                                  • 467

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Great info thanks, very interesting.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ncaa2009
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 02-10-09
                                                                    • 6

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I think these small % of time when it lands within the spread, make a difference between winner and loser. By betting randomly justbefore game you hit 50%. The other person who take the same bets but 10 hours earlier with +1 or +1.5 better spread, will win 54%. The first is long term loser, the other a winner.

                                                                    I think you should take into account the fact that games you back after sharps are often no longer good bets. It is not wise to join the steam money after it settles.

                                                                    We can pass in this instance or wait for the spread to get back (assuming public money favors the other side, otherwise it would stay unchanged till game start).
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • schaapattack
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 12-23-08
                                                                      • 1007

                                                                      #35
                                                                      ok..bet as u wish
                                                                      Comment
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