Leans for Tuesday 1/27/09...SamsNCharge is Running Point

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • SamsNCharge99
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-22-08
    • 41242

    #1
    Leans for Tuesday 1/27/09...SamsNCharge is Running Point
    So it's official. CK gave me the right to run the big thread for the NBA. I ran it today and it was very good. But, we didn't have as good of a day as we all would liked to have had, but that's why tomorrow's another day.

    There is a down side to me running this which is that I'm back in school...college at Plattsburgh and now, I have classes during the day, study time every once in a while, and school events. Tomorrow, I think I may go to the Hockey game, if not, I'll be here.

    Now that we got some of the background information out of the way...let's get down to business.

    I'm going to be completely honest with you guys and gals. I SUCK AT NCAA. Therefore, I will need much help in that part. NBA is all good for me, but NCAA is where I lack all the skills. That's where you will come in.

    HUGE NOTE CONCERNING ME
    I do research games, but I'm not 100% a stat man. I do look at past performances, but I'm not going to give out stats such as *-* in last 10 games vs. opponent. Or, in last 10 road games, team is *-*. The stats I give have stats and some opinion. Just letting you all know.

    Leans for Today.

    NBA
    Denver has won their last 2 games that I can remember by 19 and 20. Winning at home to the Kings and another at home to Jazz. They are playing great basketball before the All Star break and should continue to be dominate. On the other side...Memphis is on a bad slump, losing by 15 at Charlotte, losing by 20 at the Knicks and losing at home to Nets by 11. They play again at home and are playing terrible. Losing to 3 bad opponents by an average of 15.3 points. I don't see anything new coming from Memphis and see a Denver continue to DO WORK.

    Denver -6

    That's it for now for NBA for me to be honest. I will be playing this one pretty heavy about $330 to win $300 which is big bet for me.

    NCAA
    I have no write ups, just leans of who I sort of like.
    Texas +1. I know the public will be on Texas. probably like 70% at least and I expect the line not to move like always. i don't like texas b/c they are ranked, it's just I see better match ups all around for them.

    Kentucky -8.5??
    Maryland -4???
    Other Games???

    I did my best to start this thing up and give you my best opinion and stats to help out.

    In the words of CK or around...I've shown you mine, now show me yours.

    Good Luck for today, let's have fun and DO WORK
  • nonsense48
    SBR MVP
    • 12-15-08
    • 2927

    #2
    SAM, GOOD LUCK with school. you seem like you're on the ball so i should think that there are no worries there. you did very well with the thread on monday. congrats lil' brother
    Comment
    • BrandonLaz
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-18-08
      • 855

      #3
      I have Denver as my strongest NBA play for the day as well. I am also really liking the Bobcats in LA the Lakers are coming off a huge win against the tough SA Spurs. While the Bobcats have covered ATS in 7 straight games. The Lakers are only 1-5 ATS against the Southeast division. The public will probably push this line even higher by game time. Games played in LA over the last 3 years the Bobcats are 2-0 ATS there are just so many solid numbers pointing at the Bobcats here I have to roll with them as well.
      Comment
      • shoebox
        Restricted User
        • 11-26-08
        • 5710

        #4
        Why is no one talking about the Spurs. You think these these old men are gonna not gonna cover after being embarrased on national television. They are experianced veterans, who will give Utah enough for them to handle. They had a day off, no b2b means these old mens legs will be ready to go!!!

        Ill take spurs all day baby
        Comment
        • infamousdx
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-01-08
          • 362

          #5
          You almost have to love Denver but why'd the line move to -6 after opening at -7... that was qucik
          Comment
          • texhooper
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-05-09
            • 10001

            #6
            i haven't looked into the game, but any game bet against right now the griz looks like a good one to me. i'm from memphis, and i can tell you firsthand they are in disarray. you never know when a team will get it together for a game or two, esp in the post-coach-firing days, but i think until they prove otherwise, denver looks pretty good, especially considering they have a winning road record. i would expect this line to go up, so get 'em in now if you're feeling it.

            by the way, my quarters "system" went 0-fer for the day, houstin and phoenix.

            for tuesday we have

            cleveland
            denver (surprise surprise)

            overall 1st quarter record 3-4...whatever
            Comment
            • texhooper
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-05-09
              • 10001

              #7
              well, as infamousdx has said, the line went down...that might not be good...
              Comment
              • cheesehead004
                Restricted User
                • 12-24-08
                • 715

                #8
                Originally posted by shoebox
                Why is no one talking about the Spurs. You think these these old men are gonna not gonna cover after being embarrased on national television. They are experianced veterans, who will give Utah enough for them to handle. They had a day off, no b2b means these old mens legs will be ready to go!!!

                Ill take spurs all day baby
                How can anyone be so confident picking against the Jazz in Utah? The Jazz are a different animal in Energy Solutions.
                Comment
                • RoagBettor
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-20-09
                  • 8355

                  #9
                  I like Utah in this one. Tough loss to Cleveland the other day will motivate them, and the Spurs haven't looked good in a lot of games lately. It will all come down to Ginobili I think. If he is able to go off on the Jazz, it's possible the Spurs pull it out, but that's a big if.
                  Comment
                  • RoagBettor
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-20-09
                    • 8355

                    #10
                    Denver looks like the trap game. They're due for an off night, and Memphis can surprise. I'm staying away from it completely.
                    Comment
                    • shoebox
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-26-08
                      • 5710

                      #11
                      I understand cheese situational play for me just like I gave everyone GS cover for Clev.
                      Tail me fade me but this play screams out to me.

                      GL
                      Comment
                      • cheesehead004
                        Restricted User
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 715

                        #12
                        Originally posted by RoagBettor
                        Denver looks like the trap game. They're due for an off night, and Memphis can surprise. I'm staying away from it completely.
                        Someone always says this exact thing word for word every time a line looks too good to be true. And in this case it couldnt be further from the truth.

                        - Denver JUST had 2 back to back off games against Orlando and Houston like what, a week ago? How the hell are they "due" for an off game?

                        - A team full of young athletic guys that pulls off like 3 upsets a year does not make them a team that can "surprise".

                        The Denver Nuggets are the clear play here.
                        Comment
                        • shoebox
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-26-08
                          • 5710

                          #13
                          Agreed Denver rolls
                          Comment
                          • RoagBettor
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-20-09
                            • 8355

                            #14
                            cheese,

                            1. Utah? I picked Utah

                            2. Not saying Denver won't win, just not sure they'll cover.

                            Just my opinion, thanks for your input.
                            Comment
                            • cheesehead004
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-24-08
                              • 715

                              #15
                              Originally posted by RoagBettor
                              cheese,

                              1. Utah? I picked Utah

                              2. Not saying Denver won't win, just not sure they'll cover.

                              Just my opinion, thanks for your input.
                              Woops, dunno why I typed Utah. I meant Denver obviously and the 2 off-night thing applies to Denver.
                              Comment
                              • sprasad03
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 01-06-09
                                • 412

                                #16
                                Denver wins, Utah wins, and Indiana covers. waiting for public to keep buyin on SA and orlando then gonna get em.
                                Comment
                                • alittlemoresound
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-14-08
                                  • 472

                                  #17
                                  LAKERS -11.5 get em while its hot.......
                                  Comment
                                  • pho3nix32
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-09-09
                                    • 1465

                                    #18
                                    Another productive day of NBA betting today. Here is my opinion for tomorrow:

                                    line: dn@**+6
                                    pick: dn-6

                                    Trends below:

                                    - Grizzlies are 1-10 ATS for the month of January.
                                    - Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS against Northeast opponents.
                                    - Nuggets are 3-1 ATS against the Grizzlies in the last 3 seasons played in Memphis.

                                    With a new coach and an unhappy Rudy Gay, expect that the Grizzlies will be slaughtered by Billups and his crew tomorrow.
                                    Comment
                                    • ANDYW15
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-28-08
                                      • 1254

                                      #19
                                      to me betting on Memphis is like betting on the clippers at the moment... only the Clips are better. You either play Denver in this or leave the hell alone imo.
                                      Comment
                                      • johnnymapalo
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-14-08
                                        • 2999

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by cheesehead004
                                        Someone always says this exact thing word for word every time a line looks too good to be true. And in this case it couldnt be further from the truth.

                                        - Denver JUST had 2 back to back off games against Orlando and Houston like what, a week ago? How the hell are they "due" for an off game?

                                        - A team full of young athletic guys that pulls off like 3 upsets a year does not make them a team that can "surprise".

                                        The Denver Nuggets are the clear play here.

                                        Guy, you will always find somebody on the other fence of a clear winning pick. It could have been Cavs -1 vs Kings and people would question the Cavs line and not take the easy money because the line looks too low.. What do you want the line to be Nuggets -10 on the road??
                                        Comment
                                        • RoagBettor
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 01-20-09
                                          • 8355

                                          #21
                                          The -6 Denver line is correct and they should win. But I think Memphis will play well at home and cover.

                                          Once again, it's just an opinion.

                                          Anyway, I also like:

                                          Indiana +9.5
                                          Cleveland -14.5
                                          Utah -2.5
                                          CHA/LAL under 196
                                          Comment
                                          • johnnymapalo
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-14-08
                                            • 2999

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by RoagBettor
                                            The -6 Denver line is correct and they should win. But I think Memphis will play well at home and cover.

                                            Once again, it's just an opinion.

                                            Anyway, I also like:

                                            Indiana +9.5
                                            Cleveland -14.5
                                            Utah -2.5
                                            CHA/LAL under 196

                                            So why don't you play Memphis +6 if you think they will cover???
                                            Comment
                                            • RoagBettor
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 01-20-09
                                              • 8355

                                              #23
                                              I might, I'm waiting to see if the line moves to -7, but I feel more strongly about my other plays anyway.

                                              I'll definitely take Memphis in one of my teaser plays.
                                              Comment
                                              • jaymac82980
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-08-09
                                                • 3416

                                                #24
                                                guys, I'm with the popular pick...AND MY BOY CHEEZ! Denver has this one, easy! I posted my college picks across the street, I got some goodies over there if anyone is interested. I made a strong finsh today finishing up 1400, hoping tomorrow will be just as nice if not better. GL to all, and I'm going to bed!

                                                see you all tomorrw,
                                                1
                                                Comment
                                                • The_Kid
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                  • 5049

                                                  #25
                                                  Please convince me why I should take the Lakers. I know that Farmar and Walton are back so that should give them a much needed boost from their bench and Bynum is starting to play like he did last year before he went down with his knee injury. Also, the Lakers do need this victory at home before they head out on their longest road trip of the season that starts Friday. BUT, the Bobcats have covered 3 out of the last 4 at Staples with two of them actually being straight up victories. I want to take the Lakers but something is telling me that Charlotte keeps it close.

                                                  I'm also taking a look at the Indiana/Orlando total which opened at 214. Indiana doesn't have an answer for Howard down low and given the fact that Indiana gives up 106 points a game, I don't see why Orlando can't put up 110-115 with their shooters spreading the floor as well. Despite Orlando limiting their opponents to just under 43% shooting per game, I still think Indiana scores at least 100 tomorrow. The scoring output from recent matchups also backs my thinking. The OVER has been reached in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two. The last four meetings in Orlando have resulted in three games that have gone OVER and one that resulted in a PUSH. I look for both teams to make it rain tomorrow.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ANDYW15
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-28-08
                                                    • 1254

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by jaymac82980
                                                    guys, I'm with the popular pick...AND MY BOY CHEEZ! Denver has this one, easy! I posted my college picks across the street, I got some goodies over there if anyone is interested. I made a strong finsh today finishing up 1400, hoping tomorrow will be just as nice if not better. GL to all, and I'm going to bed!

                                                    see you all tomorrw,
                                                    1
                                                    I caught these Jay, good night on the NBA for me so plenty of $$ to cash those solid college picks tomorrow.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • vassman86
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-11-08
                                                      • 1042

                                                      #27
                                                      Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies

                                                      Wow! I'm surprised the line for Denver opened so low. I've bet been watching Memphis play lately and the numbers don't lie: they are awful. Denver is a team that's been playing pretty consistently this season. Listen, the Nuggets will walk right through the Griz tomorrow evening. Denver is a team that's been playing together with such good chemistry and they're playing against a team of rookies, under a new coach. My book doesn't offer lines until 9am. If it's still at -6, I'll buy it down to -5.5, for insurance purposes, but I don't think the we'll need it.

                                                      Denver -6.5
                                                      ________________________________________ ______________

                                                      Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

                                                      Another team I've been watching and taking note of are the Pacers. Ever since TJ Ford returned to their line-up, the Pacers have really slowed their tempo down. The total for this game opened at 214 and has already began to climb. My initial thoughts on this game are that it will stay below 210.

                                                      Not too long ago, Orlando was on top of the world pulling off road wins against the likes of the Lakers and Spurs. They've now lost twice in a row, something they're not used to doing. With a good two day rest between their loss against Miami, and their game tonight, you can bet that the Magic have been practicing hard and figuring out how they'll get back to their winning ways.

                                                      They were embarassed by the Heat, and I feel that they will put on a good show for their home crowd.

                                                      Pacers-Magic under 215 (waiting it out for the public to drive up the line)
                                                      Magic -9.5
                                                      ________________________________________ ______________

                                                      Charlotte Bobcats at LA Lakers

                                                      It's getting late, and I'm getting tired. My initial thoughts on this game is that it will go under the total. Over the span of 12 games in January, the Bobcats have only gone over the total of 196 twice: coincidentally, both of those games went into overtime. Go figure.

                                                      As for the spread, I've still got this one simmering in my thinktank. The Bobcats have covered seven straight games and won five of them straight up. I'm thinking that 11 points is a lot for the Lakers to give up, and being an out-of-conference game, the Lakers may not be overly familiar with the Bobcats style of play. On top of that, the Bobcats are 2 for 2 straight up over the past 3 seasons in LA.

                                                      Bobcats-Lakers under 196
                                                      Bobcats +11.5
                                                      is most likely the play here
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cheesehead004
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 715

                                                        #28
                                                        LOCKED IN:

                                                        Denver Nuggets -6
                                                        Texas Longhorns +1.5
                                                        Purdue Boilermakers +1.5
                                                        THE U -1
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ManBearPig
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-04-08
                                                          • 2473

                                                          #29
                                                          Dex - I agree with you on all those picks and feel a little better that we're on the same page about CHA. You obviously know the stats so like you I saw no reason to take LA. I also pondered that after dispensing of the spurs so easily on sunday they might have their foot off the gas a little bit against a lesser team which will prevent this from getting out of control. I don't think think CHA covering would have so much to do with the way CHA is playing but more with how LA is. We've seen LA let lesser teams hang around and make a game of it when they could run them out of the gym. Against CHA they are the type of team that can take advantage of that and if LA isn't careful walk out with a loss. I'm not saying that LA will lose but I can't say I would be surprised if they did because they didn't take them seriously.

                                                          Also I know this seems to be the obvious pick of the night but is there any reason as to why you wouldn't take CLE to utterly destory SAC tomorrow. I see a 20+ pt victory easy here...I wanted to think SAC had a chance to cover here but they have gotten really bad. They do play CLE well 5-2 SU in last 7 in Cleveland but I can't bring myself to do it. EZ money...right?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Razz_Donkey
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-27-08
                                                            • 1756

                                                            #30
                                                            I like the plays guys, Denver looks especially solid. I noticed that we have three dominant home teams playing (Orlando, Cleveland, and Lakers). Looks like a good opportunity for a three team 8 point teaser. That comes out to Orlando -1.5, Cleveland -6, Lakers -3.5. I know most people don't play a lot of teasers, but I think this one could be a good spot. Any thoughts?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BebeRebozo
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-28-08
                                                              • 2094

                                                              #31
                                                              Cleveland Cavaliers -14
                                                              Denver Nuggets -6
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bobbyfk
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-19-09
                                                                • 15218

                                                                #32
                                                                got Denver -6
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MrSink
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-30-08
                                                                  • 8087

                                                                  #33
                                                                  cle -14.5!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • SamsNCharge99
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-22-08
                                                                    • 41242

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Good Morning guys, great information here...love it. I already locked in Denver at -6 for a big play.

                                                                    Looking at other NBA card, I'm still thinking about some other games and loving everyone's opinion in helping. I like Orlando, but think 10 may be too high for them. They are playing at home, but haven't played well in the last few games.

                                                                    Jazz look like a decent play. Spurs didn't perform against the Lakers on Sunday, then barley beat the Nets the game before. Utah at home are damn good and should be able to beat the Spurs, but I'll probably wait on this line till late tonight.

                                                                    As for the NCAA....any information on some of the games here guys....

                                                                    Texas at Baylor??? Sorta like Texas
                                                                    Kentucky at Mississippi.....Sorta like Kentucky
                                                                    BC at Maryland....sorta like Maryland
                                                                    Purdue at Wisconsin...??

                                                                    Other games

                                                                    i got class 930-1045......11-1215, then probably lunch so I don't think I'll be back on for a while..keep up the good work guys
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SamsNCharge99
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 10-22-08
                                                                      • 41242

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Just locked in Denver at -5.5 (-105) Sweet
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...